Tomlinson Ratings for Derby

Daily Racing Form has added the Tomlinson Distance Ratings to the career box above each horse's past performances. These ratings, based on a statistical analysis of the performance of other thoroughbreds with the same pedigree influences, may prove helpful in predicting a thoroughbreds ability to handle the distance of today's race.

The new ratings, that appears in parentheses after the abbreviation "Dst" in the career box, are similar to the Tomlinson wet-track and turf ratings which already appear in the box. Ratings range from 0 to 480, with a rating of around 320 considered average. A rating followed by an asterisk means the rating is based on a small data sample, usually because a sire or dam sire has had a limited number of runners.

Unlike the other Tomlinson ratings, the Distance Ratings are keyed to the distance of the race in which the horse is entered in today. Races fall into one of four categories: six furlongs or shorter; over six furlongs but less than a mile; a mile or over but less than a mile and a quarter; and a mile and a quarter and over. Each horse has a rating, revised quarterly, in each of the four distance categories and the one that appears today is determined by the distance of today's race.

These ratings might prove especially useful when handicapping younger horses with a limited number of starts at the distance in question.

Here are two examples of "question mark" situations where the ratings should provide considerable help.

• A field of eight maiden two year olds going five furlongs (5f), most making their racing debut. Which ones are bred for speed? Perhaps one has a pedigree that shouts, "I'm a speedball and sprinting is my game!". The distance ratings will help you determine each runner's probability of success.

• You're looking at a field of three-year-olds scheduled to go a mile and a quarter...perhaps the Kentucky Derby or the Travers Stakes. While several entrants have gone a mile and an eighth, none has ever crossed that imaginary barrier and raced at a longer distance. A look at the ratings might give you a clue as to which of today's contestants has the pedigree to get the mile and a quarter distance.