An excellent field with 5 of the 8 entrants with graded stakes experience. Let’s cut to the chase:
#6 Gemologist…..I have never played chalk on the Derby trail as much as I have this year, but there is good cause. Take today’s 8-5 ML favorite, Gemologist. He deserves favoritism as the Tiznow colt has reeled off four straight wins in his four race career. His biggest win was in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G-II) as a two-year old, and his 2012 debut last out at Gulfstream was a seven lengths win over Currency Swap, one of today’s Illinois Derby favorites. Hot, hot Castellano rides for Pletcher and the pair is 30% in wins in 2011-2012 combined…..in 210 races.
#1 Alpha….McGlauglin, Dominguez and a horse that’s won two in a row and 3 of 5 career starts and, if not for Gemologist, would be the favorite. He’s worked well coming into this and should be in the fray near the end.
#8 The Lumber Guy…..If there is an upsetter at decent odds in this race, I’d bet that this is guy might do the deed. I like the move to Corny V. in this spot for seasoned conditioner Mike Hushion. The Lumber Guy is 2 for 2 lifetime winning by combined 14-1/2 lengths. This race is a huge step up for him, especially with no graded stakes experience and no races as a two-year old. I think this New York bred can handle the distance, but can he handle the competition?
#3 My Adonis…..He’s won over $300,000 with a record of 8/2-4-1, but his record in graded company is a bit vanilla (a second, a third and ninth place finish in his three graded races, all Grade III affairs AND two Beyer’s of 90 or more in two of these). Kelly Breen sticks with Elvis Trujillo. Like (former) underachiever Take Charge Indy, who won the Florida Derby, if the light goes off, he could hit the winner’s circle.
#7 Tiger Walk…..Looks to be a bit overmatched, but his form and breeding shows that he can handle this distance. He’s faired just OK in graded competition, but Johnny V gets the call for trainer Correas, who has 3 wins in 11 starts so far this year.
My picks:
#6 Gemologist to win
$15 exacta key: 6/1,3
$8 exacta straight: 6/8
$4 exacta wheel: 1,3,8/6
$4 tri wheel: 6/1,3,8/1,3,7,8
$1 tri wheel: 1,3,8/6/1,3,7,8