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Discuss Daneish's Handicapping Strategy

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Gridophiles

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2006

Posts: 477

Posted: Jul. 20, 2007 - 11:25 AM ET #26

Great discussion. Everything that's right about Covers.

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atlantamucker

Captain

Joined: Dec, 2003

Posts: 6331

Posted: Jul. 21, 2007 - 9:43 AM ET #27

The system worked for me yesterday. I had a huge day at Arlington and a couple nice ones at Colonial Downs, too.

Arlington

2nd race: Under horse paid $20.40 to place and I hit this exacta by using the all button

$2 Exacta (8-3) Paid $445.60.

Same with the 7th race. Place horse paid $15.80, which I wouldn't have had, and the exacta yielded $364.00, and in the 10th, a short field, the place horse paid $7.80 but the exacta paid $115.00.

At Colonial, 6th race. Again, the place horse wnet off at 10-1, paid 48.20 to place and yielded this one.

$2 Exacta (3-10) Paid $121.00

YOU DAMN RIGHT I DID and will again today. Good luck today boys.

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HolyBull

Captain

Joined: Oct, 2005

Posts: 5906

Posted: Jul. 23, 2007 - 3:45 PM ET #28

A good time to bump this thread.

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atlantamucker

Captain

Joined: Dec, 2003

Posts: 6331

Posted: Jul. 23, 2007 - 5:56 PM ET #29

I haven't had a chance to post what I hit Saturday, because the wins didn't come as frequently, but here they are:

Arlington Race 6

3	No More Sweets	Emigh C A	120	7.40	4.20	3.00
5	I Like Ike	Lantz J A	124		12.20	7.20
6	North Point	Douglas R R	120			3.80

Exacta Paid $74.60

Arlington Race 7

1	Clerpark	Douglas R R	122	6.80	4.40	2.80
9	Camptown King	Razo E Jr	122		8.20	5.00
5	El Batallon	Ocampo I	122			4.20

Exacta paid $49.60

Colonial Downs Race 1

1st Race

Next Post 1:34 Off: 1:02 | 5 1/2 Furlongs (Outer turf) | 3 Year Olds And Up | Maiden Special Weight | Purse: $34,450

#	Horse	Jockey	Weight	Win	Place	Show
7	Frisky Thunder	Camacho E	117	9.60	5.40	3.80
1	Bullet From Abroad	Medina R Jr	117		12.60	10.80
9	Game Face On	Franklin M	117			7.00

Exacta paid $95.80

8th Race at Colonial Downs

#	Horse	Jockey	Weight	Win	Place	Show
9	Dreaming of Anna	Baird E T	122	8.40	5.80	5.00
12	New Edition	Saez G	118		16.20	8.00
8	Christmas Kid	Desormeaux K J	122			3.40

$2 Exacta (9-12) Paid $221.60

10th at Colonial Downs

#	Horse	Jockey	Weight	Win	Place	Show
1	Cold Water Spring	Karamanos H A	117	9.60	4.60	3.60
6	Got the Spirit	Delgado A	116		6.40	5.00
12	Waquoit's Smile	Quinones C	117			4.60

$2 Exacta (1-6) Paid $58.40

Yes, there were a lot of losses in between Saturday, but still a successful weekend.

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losuds63

All-Star

Joined: Oct, 2005

Posts: 11704

Posted: Jul. 23, 2007 - 8:36 PM ET #30

Nice MUCK

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daneish

Veteran

Joined: Oct, 2005

Posts: 2026

Posted: Aug. 5, 2007 - 9:18 PM ET #31

Because of the questions I've been receiving lately, I'm just placing this thread back in the forum for those who have inquired.

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Kervaine

Prospect

Joined: Sep, 2006

Posts: 217

Posted: Aug. 9, 2007 - 1:22 AM ET #32

Hey Grid..."More Cowbell !".

But seriously, this is a great discussion and exactly what I wish would take place here more often. Everyone has a different betting method and so long as they are yielding a positive ROI then I think it is worthwhile. As mentioned before everyone has their own betting limits and thus some are restricted to the types of bets they can realistically place.

I will disagree on a few points that I saw mentioned however. First, I would not bet every race the same way. Certain races lend themselves to various bets whether they are straight bets or exotics. In a short field a win bet may be preferable to an exacta particularly if you have to cover each combo and the favorite comes in second. Perhaps a trifecta makes more sense when you feel the top 2 favorites are likely to come 1st and 3rd due to pace, etc. and you decide that sandwiching the field is the more profitable play. So on and so forth...

That is not to say that I am dissing Daneish's method as he is obviously a "spot" player and picks the races that suit his method best. In that regard I could see sticking with a formula but one should not play every race like this.

Second, I do think that there is profit to be had by playing races with a strong favorite. Daneish does not like doing this and I respect that. However, I have had much success by finding a solid favorite and then finding the next most likely. I will qualify this by saying that the second choice should be an overlay or "value" horse. By doing this I will place a straight exacta bet with the favorite on top and my choice on the bottom. This is a "sniper" approach as opposed to a "shotgun" approach and allows me to concentrate my bankroll. For $10 I get the exacta 5 times as opposed to half and is a great way to turn a 6/5 favorite into an $8 horse. Just an example but you get the point.

Further, though I believe that Daneish was speaking of only not playing favorites in exactas, another way to draw value from a strong favotire would be to play it in a "lateral" or interrace exotic such as a Daily Double, Pick 3, etc.. Again, $ spent in a straight

double could turn a $4 horse into a $10 horse or more.

For those of us that cannot afford to wheel the field over and under multiple selections I have an exacta method that has worked well for me. Find two selections that you feel have the best chance of winning the race that are overlays or at least at fair odds. (It's ok if one is the favorite as long as it is going off at more than even money). Then narrow the field by eliminating non-contenders or any horse that you have reasoned should not finish in the top two slots. You should try to limit the contenders to 3-4 others (not counting your top two previously picked) to minimize you outlay of money. Then simply wheel your originall picks over/under your other possibles.

This gives you a ticket like this AB/ABCDE & ABCDE/AB costing you only $16 or $12 if you go with only 2 other selections (C,D). The great thing about this is that you have 2 horses that can finish either 1st or 2nd thereby increasing your odds dramatically and if you are right on both your original selections you get paid twice! The other nice thing is that although one of your horses may be the chalk the other is often a true value. You feel much more confident running with a 10 to 1 that you like when he is "coupled" with a solid 6/5 favorite.

And often one of your other possibilities is a good value as well. I can recount actually routing against one of my 5-1 top choices when one of my "others" at 16-1 was attempting to run him down in the stretch knowing that it would be a much better price but delirious that I would be cashing a nice one regardless of how it turned out.

Yes, you will get "burned" sometimes even when you win if the favorite comes on top but this is mitigated by the fact that even a $5 half exacta only has you losing $7 to $11 dollars while having given you an opportunity at a much bigger score. There are ways of hedging even this loss if you are willing to do a little more work and "dutch" your exactas as I do. I will discuss this further in another thread for those interested.

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Hey Grid..."More Cowbell !".

But seriously, this is a great discussion and exactly what I wish would take place here more often. Everyone has a different betting method and so long as they are yielding a positive ROI then I think it is worthwhile. As mentioned before everyone has their own betting limits and thus some are restricted to the types of bets they can realistically place.

I will disagree on a few points that I saw mentioned however. First, I would not bet every race the same way. Certain races lend themselves to various bets whether they are straight bets or exotics. In a short field a win bet may be preferable to an exacta particularly if you have to cover each combo and the favorite comes in second. Perhaps a trifecta makes more sense when you feel the top 2 favorites are likely to come 1st and 3rd due to pace, etc. and you decide that sandwiching the field is the more profitable play. So on and so forth...

That is not to say that I am dissing Daneish's method as he is obviously a "spot" player and picks the races that suit his method best. In that regard I could see sticking with a formula but one should not play every race like this.

Second, I do think that there is profit to be had by playing races with a strong favorite. Daneish does not like doing this and I respect that. However, I have had much success by finding a solid favorite and then finding the next most likely. I will qualify this by saying that the second choice should be an overlay or "value" horse. By doing this I will place a straight exacta bet with the favorite on top and my choice on the bottom. This is a "sniper" approach as opposed to a "shotgun" approach and allows me to concentrate my bankroll. For $10 I get the exacta 5 times as opposed to half and is a great way to turn a 6/5 favorite into an $8 horse. Just an example but you get the point.

Further, though I believe that Daneish was speaking of only not playing favorites in exactas, another way to draw value from a strong favotire would be to play it in a "lateral" or interrace exotic such as a Daily Double, Pick 3, etc.. Again, $ spent in a straight

double could turn a $4 horse into a $10 horse or more.

For those of us that cannot afford to wheel the field over and under multiple selections I have an exacta method that has worked well for me. Find two selections that you feel have the best chance of winning the race that are overlays or at least at fair odds. (It's ok if one is the favorite as long as it is going off at more than even money). Then narrow the field by eliminating non-contenders or any horse that you have reasoned should not finish in the top two slots. You should try to limit the contenders to 3-4 others (not counting your top two previously picked) to minimize you outlay of money. Then simply wheel your originall picks over/under your other possibles.

This gives you a ticket like this AB/ABCDE & ABCDE/AB costing you only $16 or $12 if you go with only 2 other selections (C,D). The great thing about this is that you have 2 horses that can finish either 1st or 2nd thereby increasing your odds dramatically and if you are right on both your original selections you get paid twice! The other nice thing is that although one of your horses may be the chalk the other is often a true value. You feel much more confident running with a 10 to 1 that you like when he is "coupled" with a solid 6/5 favorite.

And often one of your other possibilities is a good value as well. I can recount actually routing against one of my 5-1 top choices when one of my "others" at 16-1 was attempting to run him down in the stretch knowing that it would be a much better price but delirious that I would be cashing a nice one regardless of how it turned out.

Yes, you will get "burned" sometimes even when you win if the favorite comes on top but this is mitigated by the fact that even a $5 half exacta only has you losing $7 to $11 dollars while having given you an opportunity at a much bigger score. There are ways of hedging even this loss if you are willing to do a little more work and "dutch" your exactas as I do. I will discuss this further in another thread for those interested.

daneish

Veteran

Joined: Oct, 2005

Posts: 2026

Posted: Aug. 25, 2007 - 1:03 PM ET #33

Sorry guys, but the "newbies" still need guidance.

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phatbastard

Rookie

Joined: Aug, 2006

Posts: 847

Posted: Aug. 25, 2007 - 1:19 PM ET #34

always like to see this thread re-emerge......more capping and bankroll threads would be cool

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daneish

Veteran

Joined: Oct, 2005

Posts: 2026

Posted: Jan. 14, 2008 - 11:28 AM ET #35

This is for Miracle and anyone else who wants to know how I wager.

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Kaiser Soze

Veteran

Joined: Jan, 2006

Posts: 2421

Posted: Jan. 14, 2008 - 12:06 PM ET #36

Quote Originally Posted by daneish:

Sorry guys, but the "newbies" still need guidance.

Could you explain to the newbie’s how to find theses horses to wheel

Maybe show us a little guidance

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daneish

Veteran

Joined: Oct, 2005

Posts: 2026

Posted: Jan. 14, 2008 - 2:41 PM ET #37

Kaiser Soze, you are not a newbie and you're so fucking assinine you aren't worth a comment, get lost and go fuck yourself. You should be banned from Covers, you're a total moron.

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Kaiser Soze

Veteran

Joined: Jan, 2006

Posts: 2421

Posted: Jan. 14, 2008 - 3:35 PM ET #38

So are you saying the wedding is OFF

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Master_Po

Veteran

Joined: May, 2002

Posts: 3150

Posted: Jan. 14, 2008 - 6:45 PM ET #39

Damn dane , Kaiser always ask you simple question’s all the time and you always give him your best answer which is always asinine

Just remember slice bread was invented long ago

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crushed

Prospect

Joined: Dec, 2007

Posts: 183

Posted: Jan. 14, 2008 - 8:04 PM ET #40

great discussion and danes pics are hitting at a good clip i normally havent been placing my pics for all to see but i do a lot of handicapping looking for value races as the poly tracs have been showing increaisng value especially when the weather is amis salso keep detailed reportrs on horses to come back and reenter off good efforts that most public dont see in the form ie horse in tough race that has caught easier group and horses at gulfstream acclimating to the weathe their as the humidit plays a role in their respiratory and ttightly run races run on turd as a lot of good trackers that rate get no room on or around the 3/8 ths pole and wait for room as they have normally been left as they get into the lane also young fillys with front spped that run to the wire normally come back and give a good account of themselves also trainer speed angles ie.how the majority of his horses win but remeber you need the stock its what counts the most

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daneish

Veteran

Joined: Oct, 2005

Posts: 2026

Posted: Jan. 15, 2008 - 12:07 AM ET #41

Come on Po, this guy is a plain and simple ballbuster, go back to some of my threads, you'll see his lunacy, I'm really surprised that someone of your caliber would stick up for this asshole.

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daneish

Veteran

Joined: Oct, 2005

Posts: 2026

Posted: Jan. 15, 2008 - 12:11 AM ET #42

One more thing Po, he has all the guidance he needs, either play the guys selections on here or handicap and wheel the fucking selections himself, very simple.

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crushed

Prospect

Joined: Dec, 2007

Posts: 183

Posted: Jan. 15, 2008 - 3:51 AM ET #43

3:51 am time to check the stock

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Master_Po

Veteran

Joined: May, 2002

Posts: 3150

Posted: Jan. 15, 2008 - 9:33 AM ET #44

yep, the guy likes to bust your balls, he seems pretty good with others but when you feed the fish they are going to eat. and i see you still have love for him

as far as sticking up

" 'A fish saved my life once' says a Zen master. 'How?' asked someone. 'I ate him' replied the master."

An as Paul Harvey would say now you know "The Rest of the Story"

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Kev3434

Veteran

Joined: Jul, 2006

Posts: 1911

Posted: Jan. 16, 2008 - 12:30 AM ET #45

hey daneish, i also live in new jersey....what track do you go to....i either go down to freehold but lately i have been going to favorites up in woodbridge....i suggest you go there if ur from somewhat aroudn that area...they put just an OTB in there right off of route 1 real nice place

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daneish

Veteran

Joined: Oct, 2005

Posts: 2026

Posted: Jan. 16, 2008 - 11:30 AM ET #46

Hi Kev, I don't go to the track anymore, too old to be running around, bad enough I still work full time in NYC, anyway, I used to go to Monmouth and Freehold when I lived in Perth Amboy, I have 3 OTB accounts, NYC OTB, NJ OTB & PA OTB, and none of these assholes carry the Saturday & Sunday morning races from Great Britain & Ireland, although they do carry both Australia tracks but the prices are much better at Great Britain & Ireland, oh well, maybe one day. I've heard nothing but raves about the Woodbridge OTB, good for them, I'm about to get one in Toms River where I live now, right down the street, but I do everything online, don't have to go to the track or OTB anymore, later.

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jfarriel

Prospect

Joined: May, 2004

Posts: 165

Posted: Feb. 24, 2008 - 9:57 AM ET #47

This is a stupid question, but I'm going to my first race March 8 at the Fairgrounds and would like to use daneish betting strategy

How would I word at the window

3-4/all and all/3-4? Would it be four tickets or just two tickets?

Thanks

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losuds63

All-Star

Joined: Oct, 2005

Posts: 11704

Posted: Feb. 24, 2008 - 10:45 AM ET #48

3.4 with All boxed

1ticket

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Kaiser Soze

Veteran

Joined: Jan, 2006

Posts: 2421

Posted: Feb. 24, 2008 - 10:47 AM ET #49

At the window

Ex-wheel 34 with all

Ex-wheel all with 34

After the races

The wording will be something like this , that mother f-er danish couldn’t beat himself in the men’s room

good luck

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Kaiser Soze

Veteran

Joined: Jan, 2006

Posts: 2421

Posted: Feb. 24, 2008 - 10:51 AM ET #50

Since, losuds posted

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HQiJdf-ebIs

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