August Stock Talk I

 Might as well wait a day to add to this, but what the hell, Hampton effect, truth of fiction etc etc..post this as a generality...

For the last 18 years, August has been the worst month of the year for the S&P 500, and the second worst month for the Dow industrials and the Nasdaq composite, according to the Stock Trader's Almanac.

tocks.

Go back further and it's not much better: since 1950, August has been the third worst month of the year for both the Dow and S&P 500 and September has been the worst. That's been true for the Nasdaq as well, since its inception in 1971, according to the Almanac.

The third quarter is typically the worst because of what might be called "the Hamptons effect," meaning, hey, it's summer, and bulls would rather be on the beach than making big changes to their portfolios. Summertime also often is a time many companies reassess the earnings outlook for the rest of the year, which also can pressure stocks.

 

There is no guarantee that history will repeat.  The column above was from July 2006.

Yep..

August is usually terrible, I hope that isnt the case since I have some long positions.



Good July contributions, like old times.

 Grid

  I am no savant, and condition all the remarks with the well known fact that the financials are so subject to massage and manipulation, up to and including outright takeover by the Fed that that has to be factored in.
  Meredith Whitney pines that we are around half way through the writedown/meltdown mess.Perhaps so.But that would indicate to me that there is further pain ahead.
  Just my opinion...and I have not been on top of anything the past three weeks.

 

I agree with Vermeer..

I think the market is going to be turbulent for the rest of the year, probably to the downside in general.

The issues is if the market will start looking up and away from the CDO/mortgage mess and think that the banks/financial firms are closer to a bottom than not, and if that is the case you are going to get screwed. I still think they go lower at least one more time..

Another problem is any drop might not be the entire group rather stock specific and that wont propel the SKF like it did in the past.

The semi ban on short trading in some of the financials is not going to help either.  Anyone know how long they extended that for?

Cramer is saying we have already hit bottom.

Time to start shorting a little more agressively 

I have no idea how Cramer is allowed to have a job AND say the things he does on CNBC with no regulation or responsibility.

  Hey man, 1st Amendment??? Just kidding...

I am curious if any of you guys have positions in bonds or more specifically bond funds.  I watch the day-to-day churn and see a real mine field in stocks.  

It only took 5 months but my SCA stock is back to where I bought it, plus a few pennies.  I had written it off as a complete loss but figured I would hold onto it since it was nearly worth zero anyways.

If only I were smart enough to buy more shares two weeks ago when it hit $0.21, its over $2.00 in after hours tonight.

jaxwhitey,

Wow..that is quite a move today, I hadnt looked at that stock in a long time.

FN, I dont see it..the moves down in the financials will be selective barring some MONSTER happening in the sector, say like C imploding..something huge.

 I wish I could be more optimistic.I keep checking on a friend who tests contractors, brokers and tradesmen for licenses in the state.The numbers fell off a cliff as the bubble popped, and he reports very little has changed. (They closed the barn door by making the appraiser exam twice as long LOL). Very very few contractors or tradesmen coming through,, whereas they were testing 7 days a week during the bubble heyday.

 I think banks are sitting on absolutely tons of crap they have yet to honestly grade. One trillion is a hard number to wrap one's mind around, but that is where it is headed and perhaps more.

 GM should just go ahead and throw themselves on the mercy of the federal government.Their fixed costs are too much and they are going to go into bk in my opinion.

  I am amazed at the optimism this jobs number has created.
Massaged and bogus data, a GIGO deal...people are professing amazement at the "resilience" of the economy, yet what is so amazing about an economy that is shedding jobs for 1/2 a year despite the enormous costs of the bailouts, much less the costs of the stimulus checks??

WHOA!  what the fuck just happened to CRDC??

Gunners,

I saw that too.

Smells like someone knows something. HUGE volume and some really nasty spikes down.

Makes me think the FDA news is going to be announced today after the market.

Maybe not bad news, just sell on the news.

I would be SHOCKED if they didnt get approval, no reason not to other than protecting currently existing procedures.

We have seen that before and I should have taken some trading shares off the table over 10.

Wall, what do you think about HANS right now under $23?

Depeche,

The trading action on HANS is speaking volumes to me lately, the stock is broken and probably even goes lower.

Based on a PPS it looks cheap but the earnings acceleration is DE-cellerating.

LINK

I believe this story. I have seen more discounts on Monster drinks over the last 3-6 months than ever and they are taking market share from their other products with the Java drinks and those drinks ARE lower margin drinks and that is sacrificing margins for sales and that is not a great strategy.

I also believe the article that eventually HANS is a good buyout candidate, especially with hardly any debt and good cash flow.

In this case I am going to hold off because the market is telling me with its PPS it is prudent to hold off.