All Forums | Investments

August Stock Talk I

...
Participants:
Search model icon
Views: 1515
Posts: 83
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2006
Posts: 2910
Posted: #1

 Might as well wait a day to add to this, but what the hell, Hampton effect, truth of fiction etc etc..post this as a generality...

For the last 18 years, August has been the worst month of the year for the S&P 500, and the second worst month for the Dow industrials and the Nasdaq composite, according to the Stock Trader's Almanac.

tocks.

Go back further and it's not much better: since 1950, August has been the third worst month of the year for both the Dow and S&P 500 and September has been the worst. That's been true for the Nasdaq as well, since its inception in 1971, according to the Almanac.

The third quarter is typically the worst because of what might be called "the Hamptons effect," meaning, hey, it's summer, and bulls would rather be on the beach than making big changes to their portfolios. Summertime also often is a time many companies reassess the earnings outlook for the rest of the year, which also can pressure stocks.

 

There is no guarantee that history will repeat.  The column above was from July 2006.

 
Covers Linesmen
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2003
Posts: 56850
Posted: #2
Yep..

August is usually terrible, I hope that isnt the case since I have some long positions.



Good July contributions, like old times.
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2006
Posts: 477
Posted: #3
Looking for some advice on SKF.  I'm currently holding at an embarrassing 136.75, and I don't hold this as a hedge.  
 
Does anyone here think this rally in the financials is for real, or can you see a correction coming after July month-end.  What scares me is that we have not seen any profit taking after this 2 day run.
 
Thoughts? 
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2006
Posts: 2910
Posted: #4

 Grid

  I am no savant, and condition all the remarks with the well known fact that the financials are so subject to massage and manipulation, up to and including outright takeover by the Fed that that has to be factored in.
  Meredith Whitney pines that we are around half way through the writedown/meltdown mess.Perhaps so.But that would indicate to me that there is further pain ahead.
  Just my opinion...and I have not been on top of anything the past three weeks.

 

 
Covers Linesmen
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2003
Posts: 56850
Posted: #5
I agree with Vermeer..

I think the market is going to be turbulent for the rest of the year, probably to the downside in general.

The issues is if the market will start looking up and away from the CDO/mortgage mess and think that the banks/financial firms are closer to a bottom than not, and if that is the case you are going to get screwed. I still think they go lower at least one more time..

Another problem is any drop might not be the entire group rather stock specific and that wont propel the SKF like it did in the past.
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2006
Posts: 1752
Posted: #6
The semi ban on short trading in some of the financials is not going to help either.  Anyone know how long they extended that for?
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2006
Posts: 1752
Posted: #7
Cramer is saying we have already hit bottom.

Time to start shorting a little more agressively 
 
Covers Linesmen
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2003
Posts: 56850
Posted: #8
I have no idea how Cramer is allowed to have a job AND say the things he does on CNBC with no regulation or responsibility.


 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2006
Posts: 2910
Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by wallstreetcappers:

I have no idea how Cramer is allowed to have a job AND say the things he does on CNBC with no regulation or responsibility.




  Hey man, 1st Amendment??? Just kidding...
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2006
Posts: 477
Posted: #10
Do any of you think this two day rally in the financials could just be window dressing for the MM's month-end reports, and we see a sell-off Friday and Monday?  I guess at this point, that's what I'm clinging to.
 
All-Star
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2006
Posts: 14915
Posted: #11
GD IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
Jim Cramer, the blowhard fool from CNBC,  is nothing but a tout.  He's no different than the farking icehole that calls you up on the first NFL Sunday and tells you about a lock.
 
LMFAO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
How can anyone in here even listen to what this charlatan thinks?
 
Sorry,
 
Not trying to be another icehole (the world has enough of them), I'm just trying to make sure no one reading this board is paying Mr Cramer any attention outisde of a quick laugh.
 
He's like the fools on ESPN who all work for Vegas.  The guy will lose you money.  Period.  End of story.
 
All-Star
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2006
Posts: 14915
Posted: #12
On to something else.
 
Yeah, I agree that there are no underpinnings to this mularkey rally of the past few weeks.
 
Do we move up?
Do we move down?
Who knows?  Anything can and will happen.
 
But for anyone going short (and FTR, no one is as bearish as I regarding the future), keep in mind that there are a TON of other peeps also short, and you are going up against lies from Scholar Ben, Icehole Paulson, "Barack OBama," and that old fool McCain.
 
Have a great evening, everyone!
 
All-Star
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2008
Posts: 11792
Posted: #13
I am curious if any of you guys have positions in bonds or more specifically bond funds.  I watch the day-to-day churn and see a real mine field in stocks.  
Also, it seems that with some of the recent regulatory rulings, perhaps the current market conditions are somewhat artificial, in that market forces have not been allowed to run to their natural conclusion ( halt on naked shorts on certain stocks, propping up of essentially the entire mortgage industry, etc.).  
This all seems to spell hard times ahead; I mean, where is the good news?  I haven't heard any of late.
Any thoughts. corrections to my ideas welcome.
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2006
Posts: 5567
Posted: #14
Does anyone think BAC will get near 20 bucks again anytime soon? Kicking myself in the ass for not taking a position at 18 and change.
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2006
Posts: 1752
Posted: #15
It only took 5 months but my SCA stock is back to where I bought it, plus a few pennies.  I had written it off as a complete loss but figured I would hold onto it since it was nearly worth zero anyways.

If only I were smart enough to buy more shares two weeks ago when it hit $0.21, its over $2.00 in after hours tonight.
 
Covers Linesmen
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2003
Posts: 56850
Posted: #16
jaxwhitey,

Wow..that is quite a move today, I hadnt looked at that stock in a long time.

FN, I dont see it..the moves down in the financials will be selective barring some MONSTER happening in the sector, say like C imploding..something huge.
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2006
Posts: 477
Posted: #17
WS,
 
I agree that we are seeing investors begin to separate the wheat from the chaff in these financials, limiting any major upside in SKF.  My other concern right now is that the Dow has a nice floor at 11,000, a bottom which I think will hold, at least this quarter.  I also see LEH is in discussions to sell 30 billion of their crap.  Gonna keep my eye on the unemployment this morning, but either way, I won't be long SKG.  Might wait until AIG reports next week.  This is just very frustrating that I didn't have a stop set at my original basis, but I certainly didn't see that broad two day run in the financials coming.
 
Thanks.
 
Holy crap, GM, how can they survive long-term.
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2006
Posts: 2910
Posted: #18
 I wish I could be more optimistic.I keep checking on a friend who tests contractors, brokers and tradesmen for licenses in the state.The numbers fell off a cliff as the bubble popped, and he reports very little has changed. (They closed the barn door by making the appraiser exam twice as long LOL). Very very few contractors or tradesmen coming through,, whereas they were testing 7 days a week during the bubble heyday.

 I think banks are sitting on absolutely tons of crap they have yet to honestly grade. One trillion is a hard number to wrap one's mind around, but that is where it is headed and perhaps more.

 GM should just go ahead and throw themselves on the mercy of the federal government.Their fixed costs are too much and they are going to go into bk in my opinion.







 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2006
Posts: 2910
Posted: #19

  I am amazed at the optimism this jobs number has created.
Massaged and bogus data, a GIGO deal...people are professing amazement at the "resilience" of the economy, yet what is so amazing about an economy that is shedding jobs for 1/2 a year despite the enormous costs of the bailouts, much less the costs of the stimulus checks??

 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2006
Posts: 3392
Posted: #20

WHOA!  what the fuck just happened to CRDC??

 
Covers Linesmen
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2003
Posts: 56850
Posted: #21
Gunners,

I saw that too.

Smells like someone knows something. HUGE volume and some really nasty spikes down.

Makes me think the FDA news is going to be announced today after the market.
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2006
Posts: 3392
Posted: #22
expecting bad news then? 
 
Covers Linesmen
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2003
Posts: 56850
Posted: #23
Maybe not bad news, just sell on the news.

I would be SHOCKED if they didnt get approval, no reason not to other than protecting currently existing procedures.

We have seen that before and I should have taken some trading shares off the table over 10.
 
Legend
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2002
Posts: 67006
Posted: #24
Wall, what do you think about HANS right now under $23?
 
 
Covers Linesmen
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2003
Posts: 56850
Posted: #25
Depeche,

The trading action on HANS is speaking volumes to me lately, the stock is broken and probably even goes lower.

Based on a PPS it looks cheap but the earnings acceleration is DE-cellerating.

LINK

I believe this story. I have seen more discounts on Monster drinks over the last 3-6 months than ever and they are taking market share from their other products with the Java drinks and those drinks ARE lower margin drinks and that is sacrificing margins for sales and that is not a great strategy.

I also believe the article that eventually HANS is a good buyout candidate, especially with hardly any debt and good cash flow.

In this case I am going to hold off because the market is telling me with its PPS it is prudent to hold off.
All Forums | Investments
About Us
Contact Us
Careers
Our Team
Brand
Testimonials
Betting Guides
Sportsbook Reviews
Sports Betting News
Podcasts
Responsible Gaming
Sports Betting
US Betting Sites
Canada Betting Sites
Canada Casinos
Best Betting Apps
Contests
Streak Survivor
King of Covers
Ultimate Race
Office Pools
The Covers community has
618,670
lifetime members worldwide
Covers 25 Years Logo Established in 1995,
Covers is the world
leader in sports
betting information.
Site Map Help Privacy Terms of Service youtube logo facebook logo twitter logo instagram logo linkedin logo google news logo
Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo
Copyright © 1995 - 2025 CS Media Limited All Rights Reserved.

If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.