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Fianncials and housing at the bottom

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Legend
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Posted: #1
House passes help for the agencies, more congressional help on the way within two weeks, several major financials capitulated, then bounced 50+% this week and last......housing stocks bottomed.....oil beginning it's RUN to the downside (hurricane through the gulf and it still drops)....speculators being exposed.
 
I think the bottom is in.  It's in for financials, housing and the major indices.
 
We have turned the corner irregardless of what some off-base pessimists have argued in the media and on here.
 
Don't jump in with both feet but I would begin buying, then dollar-cost average over the next 3-6 months.
 
My new subdivision here on the island is coming out of the ground this week.  We have caught breaks on infrastruvture costs, rates and labor costs....now it's time to hit this thing with perfect timing and bankroll the cash.
 
Here we go.
 
Legend
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Posted: #2
Who caught Wachovia in the 7's last week.........if you did, you have crushed it in less than one week.
 
Covers Rehab
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Posted: #3
This is just a short term bear market rally more bad news to come Alot of this rally was because the naked shorts had to cover. It is just a short term fix to a long term problem Many more write offs to come in the future with credit cards blowing up next. Also the stock market rally is similar to what you saw in January after this bounce ..maybe to 12300 we take out 10000. I would guess that the market will hold up until close to the election
 
Covers Linesmen
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Posted: #4
acc - be very very craeful

wb, wm, leh, mer, ubs, gs, axp, c

are all big fat turds with shady off balance sheet assets

the fannie freddie bailout is one of the worst decisions in our nations history.
 
Rookie
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Posted: #5
I bought Wells Fargo for my IRA a couple weeks ago at $24/share. I bought more less to hold, collect the dividend and hope it makes it to $40 plus/share.  Ive made pretty good money so far, and am thinking of selling now.
 
I do want to keep WFC in my portfolio, but how far do you think they will drop back down? Is it worth selling now and hope it goes back down and buy back in? Or should i just stay put?
 
Legend
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Posted: #6
Many write-offs to come I agree.  I also feel that the write-offs, assumptions, pessimism will be overdone very soon. 
 
I did not make the thread becuase the market was up in the previous three days!  Please understand.  I made it because the pieces are falling into place for a very believable, strong   base to be out in for housing, financials and the market.
 
The oil collapse will be the most enjoyable to watch.  On a recent trip to Yankee stadium I say next to a "trader."  Oil and natty gas.  What a fucking farce.  I'd love to see fucking schmuks like that in pain when the house of cards called oil prices collapses on their asses.
 
Veteran
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Posted: #7
Quote Originally Posted by accventures:

Many write-offs to come I agree.  I also feel that the write-offs, assumptions, pessimism will be overdone very soon. 
 
I did not make the thread becuase the market was up in the previous three days!  Please understand.  I made it because the pieces are falling into place for a very believable, strong   base to be out in for housing, financials and the market.
 
The oil collapse will be the most enjoyable to watch.  On a recent trip to Yankee stadium I say next to a "trader."  Oil and natty gas.  What a fucking farce.  I'd love to see fucking schmuks like that in pain when the house of cards called oil prices collapses on their asses.

 

Acc I agree with you. I think we have made it through turn 4 and hopefully heading down the front straight away. What sectors are you looking at short term? 

 
All-Star
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Posted: #8
Would love to see the NYC icehole oil traders get shafted, too, but the financial mess has a lot more to do with horrific management of credit/greed by financial institutions than a bunch of farking oil traders.
 
If you are buying equities long right now for "the long term," then you either have:
 
1) inside info (maybe you do)
2) a head in need of examination
3) no use for money
 
 
Covers Linesmen
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Posted: #9
I did not make the thread becuase the market was up in the previous three days!  Please understand.  I made it because the pieces are falling into place for a very believable, strong   base to be out in for housing, financials and the market.
---------
what pieces would those be? most financials still have a shitload of nonperforming loans on their balance sheet...res mortgage, comm real estate, construction. any rally in financials should be shorted or avoided altogether

on housing: rates will be 8% by year end, credit is tight and getting tighter, there's a tremendous glut of houses everywhere

we have another 10-15% at least nationwide

best comparison is rent/sale price comparison. from 85-00 avg sale price of a house was 14x its yearly rent. by 05, it was 25x, now its about 20x

we have a while to go
 
Legend
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Posted: #10
I'll just update this as we go.  Good week.
 
KOAJ-  Just to rebut a few of your arguments.
 
MOST finacials have a shitload of non-performing loans on their balance sheet.  However, we are in the late innings of the writedowns.  I work at BBT.  We have held up VERY well.  But we are overdoing the writdowns in order to make damn sure we are more than covered.  The writedown estimates will get overdone in order for banks to take the charges, then the losses not be quite that bad and the banks will look stronger going forward when it's "not quite as bad as we thought it would be after MULTIPLE writedowns.  The first writedown or two was necessary in most cases, the next ones are to overcompensate.
 
No way rates are 8% at year end.  Just absolutely no way.
 
Financials capitualted the week I wrote this thread.  As always, the rally will be well under way, and most will miss a good percentage of it trying to time getting back in.  This (a 50-100+% runup in many finacials already) is when the easy money is made.
 
Oil plunging by the way with plenty more downside to come in oil, gold and the other commodities.
 
Legend
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Posted: #11
It's funny to me that when the sky is falling, people fucking freak out.  If 97% of people would turn their flat screen off, this "drama" "crash" "debacle" would not be half as bad.
 
The average American is so horribly misinformed on most matters, especially when it comes to fiscal affairs.  That's why wall street just steals money.  It's too damn tempting and easy.
 
Legend
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Posted: #12
Just to clarify for the readers, when rereading my last comment, I did not want it to be misconstrued that KOAJ is the average American.  He's a very bright guy.  I respect his opinion immensely....don't agree right now but definitely respect it.
 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #13
It's frustrating watching these financials rallying on bad news, especially when your holding SKF at an average pps of $136.75.  Well, this morning as I watched SKF rolling over once again, I cracked, and hedged 2/3's of that position with UYG.  I certainly don't have a clue the future direction these will take, but what I am confident in is the fact that each of these will trade 15-20% higher in the coming months then they are right now, and I will sell/trade them accordingly. 
 
Cheers !!!
 
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Posted: #14
Conspiracy Theory:  I wonder if traders are running these financials up, prior to the expiration of the naked short rules next week, only to short them back down to their lows.
 
Just kidding..........or am I. 
 
All-Star
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Posted: #15
How many more bailout packages for fools are in the works?
 
All-Star
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Posted: #16
Quote Originally Posted by accventures:

I'll just update this as we go.  Good week.
 
KOAJ-  Just to rebut a few of your arguments.
 
MOST finacials have a shitload of non-performing loans on their balance sheet.  However, we are in the late innings of the writedowns.  I work at BBT.  We have held up VERY well.  But we are overdoing the writdowns in order to make damn sure we are more than covered.  The writedown estimates will get overdone in order for banks to take the charges, then the losses not be quite that bad and the banks will look stronger going forward when it's "not quite as bad as we thought it would be after MULTIPLE writedowns.  The first writedown or two was necessary in most cases, the next ones are to overcompensate.
 
No way rates are 8% at year end.  Just absolutely no way.
 
Financials capitualted the week I wrote this thread.  As always, the rally will be well under way, and most will miss a good percentage of it trying to time getting back in.  This (a 50-100+% runup in many finacials already) is when the easy money is made.
 
Oil plunging by the way with plenty more downside to come in oil, gold and the other commodities.

ACC-

You're one of the brighter posters on this web site, no doubt about it.  And, I wish you all the best of success with your ventures.

So financial stocks have "rallied" 100% off their lows.

Tell that to the poor guy/gal who bought current crap like C at 60, or MER at 80, or FNM at 80, and is way under water right now.

 
All-Star
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Posted: #17
To me, the current "rally" is a classic bear trap, which has been spurred mostly by short covering.
 
"Sucker rallies" in bear markets are the most vicious due to that fact.
 
Yes, yes the almighty "market" discounts the next 6-9 months.  The recession we're in has a lot more to go than 6-9 months, I'm afraid.
 
I wish to God I were wrong, cause I really don't enjoy being bearish, despite what you may think.  What I am is a realist, and the future is bleak.  You and I are going to have to foot the bill for all the ridiculous bailout packages of the past year, and the dollar that you and I are going to use as legal tender is getting more and more worthless......the more and more Scholar Ben runs his printing press for bailout packages.
 
But, hey, I hope I'm wrong on the future.
 
All-Star
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Posted: #18
Yes, oil and commodities are currently plunging.  Great news if you're short them, cause the only ones getting damaged are the traders aggregate long, and no one is seeing this bubble burst in retail prices.  Wow........gas has dropped 30 cents at the pump. Let me do back-flips and cartwheels now.  Unfortunately, the commodity inflation/bubble that we went through this year hasn't been passed on yet to Joe Consumer at the grocery check-out.
 
Veteran
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Posted: #19
 CC


  Especially that last point.It is not even beginning to be passed along to the average consumer. They think it is bad now, just wait in 9 months, after winter fuel bills are in, and when the results of massive slaughters of herds take hold in the supermarket.

 I think the notion that the Fed will "stop printing" is particularly amusing when all odds are a Democratic regime will be installed in November.And even if the Reps manage a miracle, they have proven time and again rheir true colors when it comes to fiscal restraint.

 
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Posted: #20
I know Vermeer, you are right as usual.
 
I DO NOT like walking around and being bearish, but unfortunately that is reality.  I'd much prefer to be bullish......with correct and realistic underpinnings.  But, there is no proper present or future foundation platform for the latest mularkey "rally."
 
The only real platform for this latest round of short covering is because everyone was so negative in July.  Other than that, I cannot find one single thing to substantiate the latest hype and hoopla.
 
Like you, I am getting very interested in trading SKF from the long side.  And I'm not a fan of ETFs, at all, but this one has been shellacked way too much and looks like about the only positive thing in this recession that is only in about the 2nd inning.
 
Bad future.
 
Veteran
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Posted: #21

 Walking around bearish is better than being foolishly bullish. Bullish thoughts are the natural disposition, people prefer it and Wall Street certainly sells it. But read the obit today of Micheal Metz...however, he like any sane person is never always one way.But he was bearish when conditions called for it (despite the pressure inherent in telling people what they don't want to hear) and bullish when it looked bleak.Basically, he was right far more often than he was wrong.RIP

 
Legend
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Posted: #22
Oil under $100 soon boys...then $90 not too far behind, followed by a quick trip to mid 80's.
 
Financials will drop again at some point when this FRE/FNM news wears off.  However, my July 23rd post marks the bottom. 
 
Veteran
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Posted: #23
ACC   you seem to know your stuff, please give me your opinion?
 
what % of your bankroll whould you put on a position? I am talking in a regular trading account ( no IRA,)  Not playing with scared money and dont want to invest in funds,
   thanks 
  
 
Covers Linesmen
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Posted: #24
Quote Originally Posted by accventures:

Oil under $100 soon boys...then $90 not too far behind, followed by a quick trip to mid 80's.
 
Financials will drop again at some point when this FRE/FNM news wears off.  However, my July 23rd post marks the bottom. 


what happens when WM and LEH are run this week as casualties of the bailout?

the bailout solves nothing...there is still much more supply then demand and banks are more risk averse than ever
 
 
Veteran
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Posted: #25

Ace, I so agree with the oil I put a great bear spread on in the Options two months ago and still lettin it ride.My  work show  the collapse under about 99.00 and than I agree you will see 90.00 the same day. Brooklyn 1, Why not trade Options.. Much safer and controlable being able to make adjustmeants as you play more a time decay game and side ways action. There are some great books and websites that explain Options and I suggest you look into if you never have.I can suggest a few but not sure covers allows.I do not being long financils at all I think all the books have been cooked some how some wayas lending was so out of control they have bad loans and those numbers keep getting worse as the economy is worsening. The buyers are paying .30 to .50 cents on the dollar for the portfolios the sellers(Finacial Firms and Banks) either sell and take the beating(so goes the stocks) or the anounce how much in new defaults. Those that don't get out to these buyers are going to be in BIG BIG trouble as I see the housing and mortgage crisis getting much worse.

Just my thoughts but I do put my money where my mouth is. Good Luck

 

Watch the Bond market Rally huge in here through the fall as most are short at at bad levels. You may see the mortgage rates fincrease loosing there incestual relationship with Bonds for good.

Quote Originally Posted by accventures:

Oil under $100 soon boys...then $90 not too far behind, followed by a quick trip to mid 80's.
 
Financials will drop again at some point when this FRE/FNM news wears off.  However, my July 23rd post marks the bottom. 
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