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Forex 2nd half 2014 discussion

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Posted: #151
Great morning.... We just broke 118.890  now a long ride down.... will update later
 
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Posted: #152
The Dow breaks 17735 it is going to be a long day .. that level should hold, or go thru it and close around it ..
 
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Posted: #153
Here is a run down of a day traders morning on NFP day... 

All on USD/JPY

this all started right when the number came out ..

Sell -10.2 pips

Buy +42 pips opened second position @ 119.318  closed +28.4

Buy - 7.3 pips

Buy  - 1 pip..

Buy - 11 . pips

Buy - 5 pips  

market started to turn around to the downside.

Sell + 36 pips

Sell -1.6 

Sell + 15 .3 pips..  

All scalped on the one minute chart... 

Plus 93 pips.. 



 
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Posted: #154
45 mins later we are down to 118.519.. 42 or so pips from the break of 118.890  .next stop might be 118.250 to stop the bleeding on this USD/JPY pair..
 
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Posted: #155
Too jumpy for my tastes..

Flipping and flopping like that in and out will eventually destroy an account.

Not saying you but instead of hopping in for a scalp of a few pips sometimes you have to let the trade work and go with a trend.

It would have been tough to short at 119.70 into the face of a market move but man its a fast 100 plus payday.

My gut here would keep short the US.Yen, it is breaking down a bit and I would be willing to risk 100 in pain to see where it goes.
 
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Posted: #156
Quote Originally Posted by wallstreetcappers:

Too jumpy for my tastes..

Flipping and flopping like that in and out will eventually destroy an account.

Not saying you but instead of hopping in for a scalp of a few pips sometimes you have to let the trade work and go with a trend.

It would have been tough to short at 119.70 into the face of a market move but man its a fast 100 plus payday.

My gut here would keep short the US.Yen, it is breaking down a bit and I would be willing to risk 100 in pain to see where it goes.


I had no play for a short or long.. I usually have a game plan and adjust as the news comes out . I did not like the idea of this Dow to rally another 300 points off a good number .. I said that in this thread or the other. 

So I was really thinking the number would come out negitive.. but once it was positive and I got past the news spike I went long.. At first I went short about 10 seconds before the news because the market made a quick move down.. But then peaked at the number on my other screen and it was positive.. Quickly got out of the short and went long with the number.. Once I saw I was right , I opened the second position.. 

Now the scalping comes in when price hit 119.590.. that was strong resistance.. So at that point I look to see for a bounce and continuation or a bounce and down move.. On the 15 min chart price went thru 119.591 all the way to 119.759 in 3 mins that is 27 pips of so .When that happens in 3 mins that to me is a reversal... Started the short scalping down on the one min chart after seeing that quick move down.. granted I had a small stop at that point ,but price just tumbled..

Takes a lot of practice to trade the news like this .. 

If I didnt close my last short I took @ 119.060 at plus 15 pips I would have been up another 33 pips.. I closed that trade once I saw it hit 118.890 , I didnt think it would go thru that price..

I am not sold on a long term short just yet on this pair.. the market ( Dow) might just be on a Friday pullback.. The level I called is holding at 17735 as of now.. If we stay above that , we could head higher next week.. So the USD/YEN could go higher with the DOW.. There is no doubt in my mind they are going to push the USD/YEN back thru 120.650 again some time soon.. as of right now I am done and going to make my game plan for next week .. sometime Sunday night.. 

 
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Posted: #157
I am curious to see if the market can close around the 17735 number .. I give myself about a 20 point plus or minus on that call.. Unless traders eat lunch and come back angry ,and send the market lower I hope to see it settle around the level called... Or above would be even better... . 

On the number we got this morning , do you think the Dow should have gone down???? Never in a million years.. Once the market got pumped they pulled out of positions for the weekend.. At the way this world is going BANKS and  HEDGE FUNDS are NOT holding over the weekend.. 
 
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Posted: #158
Quote Originally Posted by Knoxpoker:

I am curious to see if the market can close around the 17735 number .. I give myself about a 20 point plus or minus on that call.. Unless traders eat lunch and come back angry ,and send the market lower I hope to see it settle around the level called... Or above would be even better... . 

On the number we got this morning , do you think the Dow should have gone down???? Never in a million years.. Once the market got pumped they pulled out of positions for the weekend.. At the way this world is going BANKS and  HEDGE FUNDS are NOT holding over the weekend.. 

Yeah it should have gone down.

If the people running the markets are morons then the number is awesome, but if you look even a little at the number as a whole it was horrible.

Average hourly earnings decline, participation rate at lowest in decades..

Employment of part time service jobs is not the signs of a healthy economy yet this has been the case for several years and is ignored.

The bulk of our jobs are low paying, low quality types and that is actually harmful to the economy. Corps are squeezing mid and high income earners, not hiring and at some point the lack of GDP growth, lack of income growth, lack of inflation and decrease in participation rate will have to be factored in..to me the reality of our current economic situation would mean a 50% cut in the stock market.

The market should not be over 10,000 given how poor the economy is.
 
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Posted: #159
Quote Originally Posted by wallstreetcappers:


Yeah it should have gone down.

If the people running the markets are morons then the number is awesome, but if you look even a little at the number as a whole it was horrible.

Average hourly earnings decline, participation rate at lowest in decades..

Employment of part time service jobs is not the signs of a healthy economy yet this has been the case for several years and is ignored.

The bulk of our jobs are low paying, low quality types and that is actually harmful to the economy. Corps are squeezing mid and high income earners, not hiring and at some point the lack of GDP growth, lack of income growth, lack of inflation and decrease in participation rate will have to be factored in..to me the reality of our current economic situation would mean a 50% cut in the stock market.

The market should not be over 10,000 given how poor the economy is.


Our country looks at the working man , and wants nothing more than to enslave them.. To enslave us makes us blind to what our country and the countries that back us are trying to do.. They are looking to take over the world. the whole Middle East and beyond...

The more they squeeze the more that people go blind to whats going on around them because they are so worried about just getting to the next day.. Our generations attention span is about a minute.. So they are easily distracted. 

When you start to see Ebola, and sanctions, and Greece crap pooping up , you know they are doing the scare tactics to drive the market down or have an excuse on why it is going down.. now all of a sudden that stuff is gone.. No Ebola since Tues, no more North Korea talk, and Greece must be in great shape.. Remember Turkey last year??? How bad that country was. What happen ??? They must be OK now... What happen with Russia???  All just non sense to scare the market down so they could prop it up .. 

I am watching CNBC all day .. All I see is the Paris gunman and hostages. yesterday while the market was going up they barely showed any of this stuff.. Scare tactics for today for people to keep selling.. This is what tells my the market can start up again Monday.. And the daily DOW chart lines up with that theory..

Sounds crazy but i am pretty good at reading thru the BS.. 

Look at the news over the weekend.. I use a simple google news feed .. I look at it and see if they are trying to scare us like crazy or just normal news.. The more International bad news you see , that means they want the market go down.. If it just the same news as this week, then they are keeping it neutral. Remember this ..The corporations that own the media outlets are HUGE market players. When you control the news you can control the market... 

People at first said I was crazy , until I started making market calls.

I will let the weekend go by and make a call on the Dow for Monday after I see what goes on over the weekend.. 
 
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Posted: #160

They need to stop w the coverage of the Paris mess. Horrible yes but really does that have an impact on the financial markets? 7 hours of coverage of it? How bout they read some earnings reports to us to try and educate us?

Buying the dip today (small) ...hold over weekend see what Monday brings..

 
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Posted: #161
I turned off CNBC years ago and my mental sanity has vastly improved.

Turn on Bloomy if you must watch financial TV...
 
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Posted: #162
Quote Originally Posted by Knoxpoker:

The Dow breaks 17735 it is going to be a long day .. that level should hold, or go thru it and close around it ..

Sorry guys I was 9 points off. Market closed at 17744. Not a bad call to make on a free falling market at 10:30 am.. Till Monday...
 
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Posted: #163
Look for AUD/USD short at 0.8200 and look to get a sell order on NZD/USD at 0.7843 These 2 are strong sell signals at the moment.
 
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Posted: #164
Interesting action today.

I am so unfamiliar with the market selling off in the last few years that todays action actually shocks me.
 
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Posted: #165
Quote Originally Posted by wallstreetcappers:

Interesting action today.

I am so unfamiliar with the market selling off in the last few years that todays action actually shocks me.


You didnt like the pump and dump??? Did the same thing the other day.. the next day market went up.. But now they will trick you , tomorrow the market will tank again... This market is sick and we are headed for 17,300   It is a scam and has never been more corrupt.. Not one person today can explain why the market did what it did.. They are using Oil as a smoke screen for something else.. Maybe they will be pulling the plug soon.. So all the big boys are getting out now .. we are raising rates soon, so it is only a matter of time.. Pulling QE3 was one thing, they sucked in more longs with the run up from October , now they will pull the plug on the little guy... 
 
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Posted: #166
Of course being sarcastic..

This market rarely sells off into the close, and today they pumped, dumped and bot back..

I dont think anything will change until what works is broken and they dont buy the dips at 3-5% drops..
 
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Posted: #167
USD/CHF

EU/CHF

 
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Posted: #168
Quote Originally Posted by Knoxpoker:



You didnt like the pump and dump??? Did the same thing the other day.. the next day market went up.. But now they will trick you , tomorrow the market will tank again... This market is sick and we are headed for 17,300   It is a scam and has never been more corrupt.. Not one person today can explain why the market did what it did.. They are using Oil as a smoke screen for something else.. Maybe they will be pulling the plug soon.. So all the big boys are getting out now .. we are raising rates soon, so it is only a matter of time.. Pulling QE3 was one thing, they sucked in more longs with the run up from October , now they will pull the plug on the little guy... 


Ok look at the charts and I posted the above statement on the close of Tuesday.. Where did we bounce??? 17,300   ... That level held thru 3 hard tries to get thru, and could not.. So I would look for a small down move tomorrow followed by some sort of up day.. But it friday going into a 3 day weekend so not much after 12 noon..

There is so much air under 17,300 , if the market broke that we would be in for a long haul pullback.. So a bounce there was not a surprise at all.. 

I have watched this market and it's rhythm and understand it completely.  

There are 2 spots on the downside that will stop a down move.. 17,198 and 17,068.. If we get below 17,000 panic will set in and go down at least 500 more.. So keeping it up right now is a smart move.. they will pull the plug in the summer.. last summer was great for the market , this summer will bankrupt the retail investor, and there will be margin calls all over the place..
 
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Posted: #169
Here are some thoughts on the USD/YEN..

Caught this pair a couple of times since tuesday.. 

3 levels to watch.. 117.182  we already broke that level and retested it in todays new york session..

next level... 116.748 could get touch of that level than another down move.. 

next level .. 115.347  I think that is a bottom.. I can see this going positive for tomorrow new daily candle.. If you use FXCM it would be the 5pm candle.. Once Asian market opens and I see a down move to about 115.350 I Will go long if I see a signal there . If no at that level, I will wait until it goes below and come back up and holds or see a signal after it passes that level that it can move higher..
 
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Posted: #170
I can say this .. Deep technical analysis is the only way to go.. trading fundamentals is primitive at this point. The news and info put out is there to confuse and lead the average Joe in the wrong direction. Look at BlackBerry yesterday BBRY.. Another pump and dump. There is so much insider trading and corruption in these markets it is unreal. If someone is not in "the loop" it is a losing game. That is the main reason I stick with the Forex markets, the news is posted and on the day and time it comes out , it can be traded. It is a lot more fail letting people know there is news coming and the little guy can trade it the minute it comes out .. 
 
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Posted: #171
Quote Originally Posted by ldcpicks:

Look for AUD/USD short at 0.8200 and look to get a sell order on NZD/USD at 0.7843 These 2 are strong sell signals at the moment.

here are the 3 levels for tonight and tomorrow trading..

on AUD/USD

82.352

81.989

81.652
 
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Posted: #172
This CHF move is really shaking the markets..

It will mean some massive losses for financial institutions who felt that the peg was forever and they were shorting these pair to gain the net interest credit...

Might mean some ripples in the days to come.

I tried and will keep in a buy order at .82, I thought I had a shot when they knifed it down through 86 not long ago.
 
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Posted: #173
I am back in the market looking again.

I put in a request to close my acct at FXCM after that news today, plus I had some big gripes after I was forced to transfer to them..their deposit speed is horrible, they dont have metals or commodities available to trade.

I do like their spreads and how they seem to be open longer than previous FXDD but the downside of their capital issues after this CHF mess and how their deposit crediting is a mess..I decided to pull.

So now I am having to look up brokers that offer tight spreads, streaming news (FXCM does not have through platform) fast deposit crediting and commodity options...
 
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Posted: #174
Quote Originally Posted by wallstreetcappers:

I am back in the market looking again.

I put in a request to close my acct at FXCM after that news today, plus I had some big gripes after I was forced to transfer to them..their deposit speed is horrible, they dont have metals or commodities available to trade.

I do like their spreads and how they seem to be open longer than previous FXDD but the downside of their capital issues after this CHF mess and how their deposit crediting is a mess..I decided to pull.

So now I am having to look up brokers that offer tight spreads, streaming news (FXCM does not have through platform) fast deposit crediting and commodity options...

Wal,l I am sweating over here , I did the same thing at 9 AM when I heard the news.. This is not good.. I never had a problem with FXCM I get withdrawals in 3 days , and I usually do 3 -4 a month..

I just hope this is not going to be a crazy thing. I have a nice amount of cash in there ... 

I might might start day trading Dow e-minis and S&P minis .. I call  the market moves intraday at like 95 percent.. I like forex because I love the platform and do not feel like learning a new one.. The technicals are the same no matter what you are trading.. Stocks are the worst unless its long term.. Single stock day trades is like suicide unless you know the scam...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-16/fxcm-said-to-be-in-talks-with-jefferies-for-200-million-rescue.html

 


 
 
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Posted: #175
Yeah I think they will be ok..

Ever since the move from FXDD I just did not like how their speed of deposit is so slow.

With FXDD if I deposited that money was credited in like 2 minutes..FXCM not at all the case and if you need to make a deposit on the fly forget it.

I also had an issue with entering a limit buy to close a short position and I could never get it to take, so a few times I missed out...they claim it is from the hedging rule but that makes no sense to me. I've never experienced the rejection of an execution on a limit order in the system and it happens all the time there.

So this is just an excuse to bail on them.

I noticed two Swiss brokers failed today..makes me think whatever I end up switching to is going to be worse..like when Pinny went out for the US markets..the good guys go down and force us to use the crappy ones.
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