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Forex Feb II

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Posted: #101
rick,

yeah that is a RISKY trade on the CHF because there is no confirmation of a sell yet. Same goes for the YEN pair, just a big fat candlestick up. In fact on the Yen pair there are 4 bullish candlesticks in a row on the 4 hr chart. The Yen DMI is almost at 40, RSI at 72 on the 4 hr chart.

If I were gambling I would go for the very overheated Yen pair, if I wasnt trading on the ADX/DMI strategy.
 
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Posted: #102

got a quick 17 pips on sell  usd/chf  but closed it out the first green line I saw.

 
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Posted: #103
Sold usd/jpy @ 93.75
I am just verifying with the explination that you gave me of the dmi and rsi cross. 
 
what is the adx/dmi
 
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Posted: #104
rick,

That adx/dmi is what pop and buck use..

They and I like to use the +DMI moving THROUGH the ADX line over the 20 area and I am not sure on the up side, but I would estimate anything over 35 dropping down through the ADX for a sell..

That YEN trade is crazy..chart looks like AMZN back during the .com bubble.
 
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Posted: #105
did you get a chance to check out any of those pdf 's
I looked at a couple during lunch, but didnt find any that really struck my intrest. you?
 
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Posted: #106

i tihnk (hope) this usd/yen pair has run its course.  right now rsi higher than its been in well over a month.  also if you draw some trendlines on the 4hr, it forms a nice channel that it has been trading within since the 11th.  right now it is having trouble breaking through the upper resistance of the channel and i hope it will close this candle at or below the line at 3pm.  also, it seems as though it is hitting the second top of a double top pattern right now (the other top coming in at jan 6th -ish).  as long as it doesnt have a strong candle breaking through the low 94's we might see a nice downward move. (hope)

 
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Posted: #107
that ibfx page has some cool tools you can download for MT4, and i think some will work on other platforms also.  the "mini monitor" looks useful and also the pivot point calculator which will automatically calculate pivit points for you.
 
wish i could trade during the day... lots of small 10-20 pip scalps to be made during the early early morning and day.
 
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Posted: #108
pop,

That US.JPY is dangerous for a longer term trade no doubt, I think rick got one in, but the pair moved right back to the high again.

rick, the links that are above? if so I havent yet..lazy me for sure..lol
 
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Posted: #109
Pop, 
 
which pdfs did you download,  I only got to look @ 2 during lunch
one was pretty shabby the other kind of short.
 
I got out of Jpy with a small profit,
closed my eur / usd too
I had to train someone here at work, and wasnt able to monitor so I just shut'em down,  97 fake pips,
not too shabby 
 
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Posted: #110
Quote Originally Posted by rick3117:

Pop, 
 
which pdfs did you download,  I only got to look @ 2 during lunch
one was pretty shabby the other kind of short.
 
I got out of Jpy with a small profit,
closed my eur / usd too
I had to train someone here at work, and wasnt able to monitor so I just shut'em down,  97 fake pips,
not too shabby 


97 pips in one day is awesome. I racked up some serious pips when I was swing trading that first month..to the tune of I think 30k in profits. It is possible but higher risk.
 
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Posted: #111
well for last week I found that the only time that I was really losing pips was when I was cutting and running,
 
having more luck turning a swing trade into a long term trade
Im kind of into setting low limits, 4 x    20-25 pip trades a day is an attainable goal in my mind, and if 1 or 2 of them get turned into longer term trades then so be it,  i just double my limit and turn it into a 40-50 pip trade.
 
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Posted: #112
Yeah I have been looking for BIG trades and the last three days or so I had good small winners lined up that reversed, I probably should try to swing trade them and take profits when they are in my hand rather than setting higher level limit orders.

I got within like 20 pips of hitting a +100 pip trade on both of my pairs, only to have them reverse 100 plus each.

JPY has been consolidating for two hours, it looks like it might breakout.
 
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Posted: #113
man look at cad/jpy
 
 
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Posted: #114
Quote Originally Posted by rick3117:

man look at cad/jpy
 


Looks toppy based on the chart, but look at the back and fill strength over the last few hours. If she fails to break the highs and goes below 73.80 it would be a failed move and might be good for 100 pips on a short.


 
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Posted: #115
yeah, I  see a chart like that and just feel miserable
missed opportunity
 
even if it is playdough
 
I play to win
 
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Posted: #116
Quote Originally Posted by rick3117:

yeah, I  see a chart like that and just feel miserable
missed opportunity
 
even if it is playdough
 
I play to win


Same here.

Check out a 4 hr chart on that pair though..this move is NOTHING compared to where it was November or December.

The +DMI on the 4 hr chart isnt oversold at all, but the -DMI is way low which makes me think there will be a retrace, that and a moderately high RSI.

Another interesting thing, the RSI on a 4 hr chart hasnt dropped much below 30 at all, looks like a 30 RSI has been a great entry on the 4 hr chart, and if she gets over 70 RSI it would be a good sell.
 
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Posted: #117
Hey guys whats up.....got out of EUR/CHF with a nice profit.....No more trading the cross of the -DMI and ADX
 
you havent lost until you close position for a loss...i tried to tell that to a few guys that started awhile back....sometimes youre out in an hr with big $$$$$ @ sometimes they move against you
 
I am going to love trading in the afternoons....look at the EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY chart 4hr today both had DMI crosses right at 7am...........looking at the charts i wouldve went with EUR/JPY cause the RSI was lower but both were good for plenty and you coulda been out of either with 100 pips by lunch x2 lots........only need to make two solid trades a week but there are these crosses almost daily.....
 
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Posted: #118
and that CAD/JPY had a DMI cross at 3am.....
 
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Posted: #119
I agree regarding the -DMI crosses, I dont have as much confidence in trading off the -DMI at all, rather the +DMI extended and crossing down through the ADX, that seems more of a sell indicator than waiting for the -DMI to meet with the ADX. How often does the ADX drop to be able to cross with the -DMI with a higher moving +DMI anyway?

What I REALLY need is just a charting screen..a full size chart screen with 15-20 pair that I can look at because I miss MANY opportunities fixating on the 5 or so I have on my screen.
 
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Posted: #120
eur/chf maybe another good buy.... looks likke cross coming on usd/jpy also
 
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Posted: #121
yeah im not trading the cross of +DMI and ADX if its already that low on chart.......looking for the +DMI to be 60 or better b4 i jump......its looking ok so far
 
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Posted: #122
jumping in EUR/GBP on the buy............+DMI going to cross through ADX and maybe -DMI afterwards.....going for just over 40 pips $1150
 
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Posted: #123
in at .88214.....
 
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Posted: #124
Good luck with the trade.

it looks like a declining range bound chart going back to the Dec peak, lower lows and lower highs so far.

I thought you waited for a cross over 20? I have ADX at 16 and DMI at 15?

The -DMI and +DMI are congested here and the RSI is moderately low.
 
 
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Posted: #125
Date Time Currency Event Impact Actual Forecast Previous
Thu
2/19		 Tentative JPY BOJ Press Conference
2:15 CHF Trade Balance 0.62B 0.22B
4:30 GBP Prelim M4 Money Supply 1.2% 1.4%
4:30 GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing -6.9B 14.9B
5:00 CHF ZEW Economic Expectations -66.7
8:30 CAD Leading Index -0.6% -0.6%
8:30 USD PPI 0.2% -1.9%
8:30 USD Initial Claims 615K 623K
8:30 USD Core PPI 0.1% 0.2%
10:00 USD Philadelphia Fed -25 -24.3
10:00 USD Leading Indicators 0.0% 0.3%
10:30 CAD BOC Review
12:00 GBP MPC Member Gieve Speaks
13:00 USD Crude Inventories 4.72M
13:15 USD FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks
17:00 AUD RBA Gov Stevens Speaks
18:50 JPY All Industries Activity -2.7% -2.3%
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