Guys, give me some guesses on the housing market

also your thinking housing will "peak" again. 1 thing i want to make clear houses went up in value because of inflation 2-5% /yr before this Housing BUBBLE.

on your current situation. you said you're a real estate agent  correct ?? well the you shouldnt need advice. look at the comparable sales in your area and figure out the best way to sell the property for the highest value or if its better to rent out and get the cash flow from it. like i said real estate goes by location "knowing your area is the key to it" . detroit has 1000's of homes for 5k or less some only $1 but no one wants any part of them. hell the city is tearing down whole blocks so they dont have to provide services to the area.  theirs a lot to keep in mind when buying like the cities finances and employers in the area will they be shuting businesses in the area if the economy goes down again etc. all these things matter. 

people don't understand the anatomy of a bubble. We haven't overshot to the downside yet, nor are we even sniffing despair. Even though national median price is a poor metric, i could see it still falling 30-50%

with all the meddling with our currency and bailing out the banks, some will confuse themselves into thinking it's not that bad, regardless, real and nominal prices are both still falling

I think knowing your area is great advice  I can say that in locations where people are ready and willing to buy land is the hot commodity to my knowledge land is one thing no one can make more of once its gone its gone and a lot of people underestimate the value of the land that there piece of real-estate sits on and how to use this land to their advantage.  Just remember your not just buying or selling the house your also buying or selling the location and the land

As the population increases the need for housing will increase.... real estate is one of the best long term investments

yes, and as more and more people are using more and more petroleum, there becomes less available. the law of all devouring rents proves that for every dollar one neccessity sucks up, an available dollar to spend on other necessities vanishes.

this is always proven, and exacerbated in broken markets. see for yourself, the info is out there.  since the bubble burst, every dollar that deflated from housing, was matched with a dollar increase in health care


Or we can pretend we're still in 3rd grade and invest on Mark Twains advice, "buy land, they aren't making any more of it!"

important to realize the difference in real and nominal gains

because we all know, that there is no perpetual motion machine that which generates an ever-rising path for the price of houses


detox, time for an update.  looks like 95% of people agree with you, now is a great time to buy.  Buy now, or be priced out, FOREVER

when forming an opinion on this matter, we are all remembering that 10yr t's have fallen over 90% in my lifetime, and don't have much more room to fall, correct?

I invested in real estate, liked it, did ok, quit my desk job, just got my RE license, might not ever use it.

 

be easy hates this idea. that's fine. i've talked to a lot of people that said the same stuff that he says.

I have done ok so far.

Detroit = buy 20 5k houses and lease them to sec 8 tenants might not be a bad idea. I'd get the money back in the first year just from the cash flow.

IDK ... i'm not really sure what the next step is.

I like when people say things like that. If everyone told me it was a can't miss i'd be concerned.

Time will tell. I think houses will sell for more in 2020 then they are right now. IMHO.

Be easy,

Your logic is sound for luxury items such as gold-cars-diamonds-art-etc.  But you couldn't be more wrong on things that are needed.... food-water-shelter and weapons.

Land is a long term great investment.... and renting is a great short term investment.  The 08 collapse drove prices down to levels that are steals. And when the lending standards tightened it created a bunch of renters who didn't exist before.  Getting a loan in today's market system is tough for people that have less than great credit... meaning more people are forced to rent instead of owning...even though its cheaper to own right now that it is to rent in most places.

As the population continues to increase the demand for property will increase and you will see  a return to pre 08 prices or better.... it might be 10 to 25 years from now.... but it will happen.... the alternative is our economy collapses all together and nothing will matter anyway.

In my neck of the woods your able to buy small homes in decent neighborhoods for $20,000.   The going rent for said places is $500 a month.  Not sure you can find a better short term investment really.

Homes in Florida are ultra cheap right now... I am looking to pick up a few nice places that I will easily make 10-20% short term will potential of 100-200% long term

If you can find better investments than that let me know... am always looking to make more

 i agree. obviously. i'm not sure how you can lose if you buy houses and rent them out to sec 8. sec 8 = gauranteed money and the tenant is scared to lose the voucher so they USUALLY keep the place up ok.

I wonder what the avg section 8 rent is for a house in Detroit.

I guess i can just call Detroit Housing Authority and ask them? Not sure if they'll help me though. Doesn't hurt to try.

Section 8 just north of boston in my shitty city is 1000-1200 per month.

If you buy a house for 5000. Rent it to sec 8 for 500. In 1 year you have your money back and the rest is profit. 5000 + closing costs + taxes = 6000 ish. maybe 13 months and you's have your money back.

Now if you have 100,000+ and buy 20 houses for 5,000 ... all cash ...  and rent them out for 500 a month ... that's 10,000 a month - fees, maint, etc ...

Those are real rough numbers but i'm not far off.  

 i missed this part.

What part of Florida are you thinking?

NC, FL, MI ... 3 states that i like right now.

What college town are you in?  Athens? GA Southern?  Interested to hear more about this property.

Have been thinking of buying a second house in florida. Been looking at Cape Coral Ft meyers area. Market appears to have been hit the hardest of Florida. Anyone looking at Florida needs to google Chinese Drywall. This is one reason for majority of houses being so cheap that i have been looking at. Before you buy make sure you read up on it. I had never heard of it. Bol fellas

Chinese drywall is crazy ... I almost bought a 3 family that had it. 

Mold is the major issue with Florida homes...all of the moisture and if places are not de-humidified like they should be in can create a major issue.

The Fort Myers- Naples area is a good area to buy right now. Condo's are cheap and you have alot of money making possibilities with them.

I am lucky to have an uncle who is a retired realtor in that area. If I like something I just send him over to check it out

https://realestate.msn.com/slideshow.aspx?cp-documentid=28155202

has an estimated market value of $128,046 and lists for $69,500.



how on earth would something have a price tag half of it's estimated market value?  These words are intentionally obfuscated

it's market value is whatever it sells for

that is purely speculative AND dependent on government bailing out house prices, uber low interest rates, cheap oil, and a recovering economy/job market, no to mention much much looser, and better access to, credit

I think it's odd that the OP suggests that 95% of people would say that housing is a bad investment, and then in the thread, 95% of people agree that it is a great investment. Very odd, to say the least

My guess is those that see upside, don't bother to assess the downside risks and ALL THE HEADWINDS facing the market in the years to come

What's the risk?

Problem is your using only property value as a way to determine value.  Certainly something is only worth what someone is willing to pay... but your missing a couple key points.

The 08 banking bust created a huge market for rentals...why? The government created stricter standards for lending and banks tighten the amounts and to whom they would lend money.  Meaning people can't get loans to buy outright but still need places to live... because of the new standards there are alot of people who make enough to loan but don't get approved and are forced to rent.

Real estate in my opinion is a long term investment... not short term. Prices are not going to pre 08 prices anytime soon... but they are not going much lower either. The key to investing is to buy low and sell high. Even if prices shrink 10-20% more you still are making money on your rental revenue... you will actually make more as property taxes will continue to fall with the price.

The thing to remember is housing is not a luxury item like gold-car-dimaonds-etc. The population will continue to grow and the need for housing will continue to rise.  If you have a good eye for places and have access to good tenants you make 10-30% on your money easy per year just on rent.

Personally I don't care whether 99 or 1% agree with me .... I make great money in it and continue to look for more. If you want to invest elsewhere go ahead... good luck to you

I think what you meant to say was using price to determine value, which is precisely what i do

The 08 bust created a huge market for squatters, not so much good tenants. People that would normally own, but are now renting, wont be around forever. They went bk 3-4 years ago. They probably lived rent/mort free for two years, and now renting have made strides towards a savings

"The population will continue to grow, and the need for housing will rise",,,,,,,are you certain about this? Does it only work one way, or did the population shrink and demand for housing only temporarily vanished since the 06 peak and the subsequent 33% decline since?

Why do you say housing is an investment? I always thought housing was a place to live in, a roof over one's head. What exactly is it that one is producing by paying a mortgage (that over the life of the mortgage is usually 2x the purchase price?). Housing is not an investment. What is actually happening is the land under the house is appreciating in devalued dollars, and the box atop that you live in is perpetually deteriorating to a rotted and dilapitated box. I know its tough to imagine a future different than the past, but homes built in the past 10-15 years wont still be standing and functional like those built here in the centuries prior. They are cheap crap and will fall apart much quicker

Property taxes will fall with the price? Are you certain? Then you must also agree that the local area serviced by the local gov will fall in quality as well, and not just dollar for dollar but with a heavy multiplier as collectively the neighborhood goes to shit

The OP asked for thoughts on housing moving forward. Thats what im sharing. I dont care that its possible to make 30% annual returns on something, if it is dependent on the government giving you the privilige to pilfer it from the commons, i for one wouldnt sleep at night

Property is a place to live and is an investment. Whether you purchase a property to live in or for renting you still have to invest time-money and energy into it.  For decades homes were a way that families invested for the future... hoping that when they paid off their mortgages that their home would be worth more than when they purchased it.

When you purchase a property for living its your primary residence... when you buy another its considered investment and you pay higher taxes on it. Interest rates on investment property are typically 1 to1.5% higher than residence rates.

Prices fluctuate in everything...stock market-housing-jewelry-oil-etc. If you think housing is far from its bottom...please enlighten me on how much further it will fall?

The population will continue to grow...unless a plague strikes its a fact that the global and national population will grow.  With that being said... local populations can fluctuate. Meaning its best to know and understand your local economies and situation before investing.

Property taxes fall with property values...thats a fact

Not sure what my investments have to do with the government? I have middle class properties and a couple high end pieces... I don't deal with cheaper places as they require alot more time and energy.  Apparently you can only make money on low income housing?

 

 

 

 

 

 

WHAT AB0UT TAXES, INSURANCE, MAINTENANCE?

THERE IS TRUTH T0 THIS BUT I W0ULD BE M0RE SPECIFIC AND SAY LAND IS A BETTER INVESTMENT THAN H0USES L0NG TERM