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    All Forums | Investments

    interesting "beat up" defense stock

    «First Previous 12
    wallstreetcappers
    Vermeer
    LeRinkRat
    Wake2002
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    «First Previous 12
     
    wallstreetcappers
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    Posted: Dec. 18, 2007 - 10:42 PM ET #26

    Vermeer,

    The analyst fell asleep at the wheel, thus the monster drop on the target.

    During the .com boom years there were worse instances than that..I remember firms forgetting about coverage HUNDREDS of points higher than some optic and tech stocks were trading at.

    Firms who give coverage are selling..everyone on wallstreet is selling somthing. I couldnt give two craps about what some two bit firm like FBR is saying..they might be right but they are a firm I have never listened to in the past nor the future.
    Reply
    Vermeer,

    The analyst fell asleep at the wheel, thus the monster drop on the target.

    During the .com boom years there were worse instances than that..I remember firms forgetting about coverage HUNDREDS of points higher than some optic and tech stocks were trading at.

    Firms who give coverage are selling..everyone on wallstreet is selling somthing. I couldnt give two craps about what some two bit firm like FBR is saying..they might be right but they are a firm I have never listened to in the past nor the future.
     
    Vermeer
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    Posted: Dec. 19, 2007 - 7:17 AM ET #27

    Agree with both of you....such is the game. I wish they would publish degrees and their origins when they publish the analyst's thoughts....majored in dart throwing, local pub, U of Glasgow...etc etc...grad work Back of Matchbook U, summa juice nada.

     WSC, wonder id they feel asleep on their own stock? Looks like it.

     
    Reply
    Agree with both of you....such is the game. I wish they would publish degrees and their origins when they publish the analyst's thoughts....majored in dart throwing, local pub, U of Glasgow...etc etc...grad work Back of Matchbook U, summa juice nada.

     WSC, wonder id they feel asleep on their own stock? Looks like it.

     
     
    Vermeer
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    Posted: Dec. 19, 2007 - 7:40 AM ET #28

    Anyone have any specifc authors or titles regarding options trading in specific or markets in general? My nephew wants to start learning as much as he can as fast as he can, help me out here, running out of shopping days.

    For general interest on the US as Imperium ready to crack up and why, check out the works of Chalmers Johnson (Blowback, The Sorrows of Empire, and Nemesis, his best three...the last will please Bush haters but the imperial presidency started with JFK and has been a constant of the duopoly of power weare stuck with in this country). Not exactly uplifting reading but on target, sad to say.




    Reply
    Anyone have any specifc authors or titles regarding options trading in specific or markets in general? My nephew wants to start learning as much as he can as fast as he can, help me out here, running out of shopping days.

    For general interest on the US as Imperium ready to crack up and why, check out the works of Chalmers Johnson (Blowback, The Sorrows of Empire, and Nemesis, his best three...the last will please Bush haters but the imperial presidency started with JFK and has been a constant of the duopoly of power weare stuck with in this country). Not exactly uplifting reading but on target, sad to say.




     
    Vermeer
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    Posted: Dec. 19, 2007 - 7:53 AM ET #29

    Navistar and BAE almost evenly split the bulk of the latest MRAP order. In the past, at least, Force Protection has always managed to secure its fair share.

    So, as it turns out, SunTrust Robinson Humphrey analyst Chris Donaghey simply thought he was prepared for the worst. Early Tuesday, with concerns about this order mounting, Donaghey finally caved in and scaled back his expectations for Force Protection.

    "This assumption implies additional awards to FRPT under the MRAP I program of only 515 vehicles," he stressed. "Clearly, this change represents a substantial reversal of our previous expectations -- and in our opinion, if this scenario plays out, defies logic."

    Still, he added, "given the rhetoric of potential reductions to the size of the MRAP program and seemingly illogical uncertainties of FRPT's ultimate market share of the MRAP I program, we believe our reduction may be warranted but clearly extreme."

    Donaghey did keep his buy recommendation on Force Protection, however. He felt that the stock was significantly undervalued -- even before Tuesday's after-hours plunge -- and predicted that it would ultimately climb back to $14 a share.

    "Clearly, a considerable amount of skepticism exists in this stock today," admitted Donaghey, whose firm has investment banking ties to the company. But "we believe the recent selloff is significantly overdone and reflects a situation where global demand is virtually nonexistent" in the end.

    Reply
    Navistar and BAE almost evenly split the bulk of the latest MRAP order. In the past, at least, Force Protection has always managed to secure its fair share.

    So, as it turns out, SunTrust Robinson Humphrey analyst Chris Donaghey simply thought he was prepared for the worst. Early Tuesday, with concerns about this order mounting, Donaghey finally caved in and scaled back his expectations for Force Protection.

    "This assumption implies additional awards to FRPT under the MRAP I program of only 515 vehicles," he stressed. "Clearly, this change represents a substantial reversal of our previous expectations -- and in our opinion, if this scenario plays out, defies logic."

    Still, he added, "given the rhetoric of potential reductions to the size of the MRAP program and seemingly illogical uncertainties of FRPT's ultimate market share of the MRAP I program, we believe our reduction may be warranted but clearly extreme."

    Donaghey did keep his buy recommendation on Force Protection, however. He felt that the stock was significantly undervalued -- even before Tuesday's after-hours plunge -- and predicted that it would ultimately climb back to $14 a share.

    "Clearly, a considerable amount of skepticism exists in this stock today," admitted Donaghey, whose firm has investment banking ties to the company. But "we believe the recent selloff is significantly overdone and reflects a situation where global demand is virtually nonexistent" in the end.

     
    LeRinkRat
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    Posted: Dec. 19, 2007 - 9:39 AM ET #30

    bot 1k @ 4.05 right after the open wednesday
    Reply
    bot 1k @ 4.05 right after the open wednesday
     
    LeRinkRat
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    Posted: Dec. 19, 2007 - 9:50 AM ET #31

    and right after that it broke to a low of 3.89 which could put it in margin call range. some firms. like Ameritrade require a $4 min price for margin.   pretty much all sellers so far.
     
    new news on contracts and the new Cheetah
     
    https://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/force-protection-awarded-379-million/story.aspx?guid=%7BAC26BE3F%2D5E02%2D4AE5%2D93CB%2D5C1387EB1C31%7D&dist=TQP_Mod_pressN
     
    (FRPT:
    force protection inc com new
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     Last: 4.22-1.69-28.60%
    9:34am 12/19/2007
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    FRPT
     
    today announced it has received a delivery order for an additional 358 Mine Resistant Ambush Protected (MRAP) Category I and Category II vehicles from the U.S. Marine Corps Systems Command (MARCORSYSCOM), which is acting as the lead contracting agency for the Department of Defense. The total approximate value of the order is $379 million.
     
    MARCORSYSCOM also advised Force Protection that its Cheetah vehicle proposal is in the competitive range for continued development and testing and will be further evaluated with modifications as part of the ongoing MRAP II competition.
     
     
     
     
    Reply
    and right after that it broke to a low of 3.89 which could put it in margin call range. some firms. like Ameritrade require a $4 min price for margin.   pretty much all sellers so far.
     
    new news on contracts and the new Cheetah
     
    https://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/force-protection-awarded-379-million/story.aspx?guid=%7BAC26BE3F%2D5E02%2D4AE5%2D93CB%2D5C1387EB1C31%7D&dist=TQP_Mod_pressN
     
    (FRPT:
    force protection inc com new
    News, chart, profile, more
     Last: 4.22-1.69-28.60%
    9:34am 12/19/2007
    Delayed quote data
    Add to portfolio
    Analyst
    Create alert
    Insider
    Discuss
    Financials
    Sponsored by:
     
    FRPT
     
    today announced it has received a delivery order for an additional 358 Mine Resistant Ambush Protected (MRAP) Category I and Category II vehicles from the U.S. Marine Corps Systems Command (MARCORSYSCOM), which is acting as the lead contracting agency for the Department of Defense. The total approximate value of the order is $379 million.
     
    MARCORSYSCOM also advised Force Protection that its Cheetah vehicle proposal is in the competitive range for continued development and testing and will be further evaluated with modifications as part of the ongoing MRAP II competition.
     
     
     
     
     
    Wake2002
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    Posted: Dec. 19, 2007 - 12:20 PM ET #32

    Le Rink,
               Many thanks for posting this.  Just got through completing the first day trade of my investing life:
     
    Bought 250 share 4.11 this morning  9:53 A.M.
     
    Just sold 250 shares for 4.64 at 12:10 P.M.
     
    Subtract out the commissions, quickest $120 (12% net gain) I ever made.  Wish I had more than $1,000 of cash sitting in my account, but I'll take it.
     
     
    As an added bonus for everyone us, now that I sold, I guarantee this becomes at least a double.  Don't have a job that gives me the ability to keep a constant eye on it, so I figured I would take the quick profit and be happy. 
     
    But anyways, thanks again for the heads up on the stock
    Reply
    Le Rink,
               Many thanks for posting this.  Just got through completing the first day trade of my investing life:
     
    Bought 250 share 4.11 this morning  9:53 A.M.
     
    Just sold 250 shares for 4.64 at 12:10 P.M.
     
    Subtract out the commissions, quickest $120 (12% net gain) I ever made.  Wish I had more than $1,000 of cash sitting in my account, but I'll take it.
     
     
    As an added bonus for everyone us, now that I sold, I guarantee this becomes at least a double.  Don't have a job that gives me the ability to keep a constant eye on it, so I figured I would take the quick profit and be happy. 
     
    But anyways, thanks again for the heads up on the stock
     
    LeRinkRat
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    Posted: Dec. 19, 2007 - 12:31 PM ET #33

    glad you are happy, Wake2002  it's small steps when you have a small account. hopefully it will continue to grow.
     
    I'm holding to see IF I can get a more substanctial recovery. looking good so far. just popped over 4.80.
    Reply
    glad you are happy, Wake2002  it's small steps when you have a small account. hopefully it will continue to grow.
     
    I'm holding to see IF I can get a more substanctial recovery. looking good so far. just popped over 4.80.
     
    wallstreetcappers
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    Posted: Dec. 19, 2007 - 12:32 PM ET #34

    Rat,

    Good buy..

    Stock moving up nicely all day. The way they knocked it down was a joke. Pricing the company at less than 1 times sales with the margins they have is absurd.

    It wouldnt shock me if the stock crosses 5 by the end of the day.


    Reply
    Rat,

    Good buy..

    Stock moving up nicely all day. The way they knocked it down was a joke. Pricing the company at less than 1 times sales with the margins they have is absurd.

    It wouldnt shock me if the stock crosses 5 by the end of the day.


     
    wallstreetcappers
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    Posted: Dec. 19, 2007 - 12:46 PM ET #35

    Or not..

    30 cent drop in 10 min..


    Reply
    Or not..

    30 cent drop in 10 min..


     
    LeRinkRat
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    Posted: Dec. 19, 2007 - 12:50 PM ET #36

    well 16.5 million traded half way thru the session and the low within the first half hour. last hour will tell the tale. hoping for a "washout-reversal". still gotta be a LOAD of shorts out.
     
    did you add, walls?
    Reply
    well 16.5 million traded half way thru the session and the low within the first half hour. last hour will tell the tale. hoping for a "washout-reversal". still gotta be a LOAD of shorts out.
     
    did you add, walls?
     
    LeRinkRat
    LeRinkRat
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    Posted: Dec. 19, 2007 - 1:02 PM ET #37

    more late to the party "turkeys" throwing rocks. Dougherty to neutral (hold) from buy and Collins Stewart to underperform (sell) from buy.
     
    guess I missed something when I was taught to "buy low, sell high". these fundamental (I don't trust ANYTHING with "fundamental" in it's name) "anal"ysts seem to always want to buy high and sell low.
    Reply
    more late to the party "turkeys" throwing rocks. Dougherty to neutral (hold) from buy and Collins Stewart to underperform (sell) from buy.
     
    guess I missed something when I was taught to "buy low, sell high". these fundamental (I don't trust ANYTHING with "fundamental" in it's name) "anal"ysts seem to always want to buy high and sell low.
     
    wallstreetcappers
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    Posted: Dec. 19, 2007 - 1:09 PM ET #38

    Rat,

    I didnt add yet..thought we might see the 3s on this panic celling.

    The problem I have is the next contract talk isnt for a few months, to the stock should swoon for a while.

    Current valuations are a joke, but you know what? I have a bunch of stocks that I think valuations are wrong, so how long can they be wrong? A very long time unfortunately..  
    Reply
    Rat,

    I didnt add yet..thought we might see the 3s on this panic celling.

    The problem I have is the next contract talk isnt for a few months, to the stock should swoon for a while.

    Current valuations are a joke, but you know what? I have a bunch of stocks that I think valuations are wrong, so how long can they be wrong? A very long time unfortunately..  
     
    Wake2002
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    Posted: Dec. 19, 2007 - 2:39 PM ET #39

    Rat,
          I'm a young investor, but I don't want to come across like a total rookie (I've been investing since I was 16) or mislead anyone else who follows this forum into thinking it is profitable to come in and day-trade.  That play was just about 1-2% of my total portfolio (would have even been considerably less than that but I just put a 20% downpayment on my first house about 8 months ago) If I had more cash in my account, I would have put a little more into it, but I am more of a long-term investor and didn't think the play warranted selling any of my other holdings (and dealing with Uncle Sam at this point)
     
         I just wanted to give thanks because it was a nice quick pop, (albeit a small one, but the way this market has been the last couple of months I will take it!) something I would never even have noticed or researched if it hadn't been for your posts.  I could have waited it out, and hoped for it to continue to rise, but investing in such a volatile stock is so foreign to me that I couldn't turn down a 12% gain in 3 hours (you don't normally see that with the MO's or KMB's of the world.)
     
          This trade coupled with the advice I received against DHOM about a month ago (I think it was a tag team effort from KOAJ and Wallstreet) has saved/made me a little extra money (at least on paper for the time being) so I just wanted to give some props to this forum.  I obviously came to Covers for the gambling forums, but definitely find myself checking the investment forum as frequently (if not more at this point.)
     
          Good luck to everyone, and thanks again to all of you guys for taking the time to post your thoughts.
    Reply
    Rat,
          I'm a young investor, but I don't want to come across like a total rookie (I've been investing since I was 16) or mislead anyone else who follows this forum into thinking it is profitable to come in and day-trade.  That play was just about 1-2% of my total portfolio (would have even been considerably less than that but I just put a 20% downpayment on my first house about 8 months ago) If I had more cash in my account, I would have put a little more into it, but I am more of a long-term investor and didn't think the play warranted selling any of my other holdings (and dealing with Uncle Sam at this point)
     
         I just wanted to give thanks because it was a nice quick pop, (albeit a small one, but the way this market has been the last couple of months I will take it!) something I would never even have noticed or researched if it hadn't been for your posts.  I could have waited it out, and hoped for it to continue to rise, but investing in such a volatile stock is so foreign to me that I couldn't turn down a 12% gain in 3 hours (you don't normally see that with the MO's or KMB's of the world.)
     
          This trade coupled with the advice I received against DHOM about a month ago (I think it was a tag team effort from KOAJ and Wallstreet) has saved/made me a little extra money (at least on paper for the time being) so I just wanted to give some props to this forum.  I obviously came to Covers for the gambling forums, but definitely find myself checking the investment forum as frequently (if not more at this point.)
     
          Good luck to everyone, and thanks again to all of you guys for taking the time to post your thoughts.
     
    wallstreetcappers
    wallstreetcappers
    Covers Linesmen
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    Joined: Feb, 2003
    Posts: 58424
    Posted: Dec. 19, 2007 - 3:17 PM ET #40

    Getting back to highs again..

    5s possible.
    Reply
    Getting back to highs again..

    5s possible.
     
    LeRinkRat
    LeRinkRat
    Legend
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    Joined: Dec, 2001
    Posts: 85256
    Posted: Dec. 19, 2007 - 3:42 PM ET #41

    currently right @ 5 with a day high of 5.12. wouldn't be suprised to see some "day trader dump" selling here 20 mins into the close. over a 1 point swing from early lows to current high today.
    Reply
    currently right @ 5 with a day high of 5.12. wouldn't be suprised to see some "day trader dump" selling here 20 mins into the close. over a 1 point swing from early lows to current high today.
     
    LeRinkRat
    LeRinkRat
    Legend
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Dec, 2001
    Posts: 85256
    Posted: Dec. 19, 2007 - 4:03 PM ET #42

    4.92 is a better close than I thought I would get considering the intraday swing. will take it (AND hope I don't get more bullshit "turkeys" running their mouths after hours again today)
    Reply
    4.92 is a better close than I thought I would get considering the intraday swing. will take it (AND hope I don't get more bullshit "turkeys" running their mouths after hours again today)
     
     
    Vermeer
    Vermeer
    Veteran
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    Joined: Dec, 2006
    Posts: 2910
    Posted: Dec. 20, 2007 - 5:08 AM ET #43

    I bought in at two intervals that average 5 bones a stub. What the hell. If it goes up to 14 at some point I will be happy.If it tanks to 3, I buy more, and wait. Frankly I would like to think that the supply needs of their product line would be decreased, but I live in the real world.
    Reply
    I bought in at two intervals that average 5 bones a stub. What the hell. If it goes up to 14 at some point I will be happy.If it tanks to 3, I buy more, and wait. Frankly I would like to think that the supply needs of their product line would be decreased, but I live in the real world.
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