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JULY STOCK TALK

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Posts: 109
 
All-Star
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Joined: Jan, 2006
Posts: 14915
Posted: #101
Yep..........typical Londowtowne weather.
 
Rain.
 
Will screw up the rest of the tennis for the tourney.  Will have no action on any of it due to the rain factor.
 
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Posted: #102
CC,

I cannot watch tennis, my dad is glued to the screen during Wimbledon, me I could care less..haha

You cannot take much out of this trading, or any summer trading to be honest..volumes are so thin that moves can be made and erased if you turn your back.


 
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Posted: #103
Yeah, WSC, today was pretty much a wash anyway.  But man did it have the potential to be bloody..........guess it gave peeps today the chance to sell longs or cover shorts.
 
Don't like tennis?  You betta' aks somebody, man!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  You crazy!!!!
 
And FSLR is crazy.  That name needs to just be avoided, period.  Essentially, it "corrected" (whatever the f--k that means) 50% this morning from its Feb '08 low to last month's ridiculous high (160 to 315, got as low as 234 today before manipulators decided to bust up some shorts).  I can tell you for a fact...........this name could kill me cause I really believe that whatever I do with it will be wrong.  Am going to have to replace it with another name in alternative energy space.  Think I'm going to add ESLR, WSC, cause it has just been bludgeoned the last week or so due to their hideous secondary.
 
Hell, ESLR is 9ish, so only 9 points away from zero.  FSLR is what, 255ish?  That's about 255 away from zero, or 255 away from where the manipulators could take it on a short position nuclear attack.
 
FSLR......................
 
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Posted: #104
Guess that oil icehole from Morgan Stanley has one more day to go for his 150 a barrel prediction.
 
7 rocks away.
 
Could easily touch 150 tomorrow on mid east threats, terrorist threats, etc.......  Hell, if al Quaeda (whom I know for a stone cold fact manipulates stock markets) wanted to, they could easily scare the piss out of the oil markets at any second.
 
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Posted: #105
WSC-
 
The aboslute bloodbath put down on agriculture/steel/coal/rails yesterday................
 
Is this mutual funds getting ready for massive redemptions as investors throw in the towel in 3Q after seeing their abominable 2Q returns for 2008?  ANYTHING with a gain was just pummelled yesterday on HUGE volume.  That selling was real..........not just a bunch of f---ing traders, man.  That was some VERY BEARISH stuff yesterday. 
 
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Posted: #106
CC,

That is right.

They took stocks down between 20-40 plus percent in a few sessions because they COULD.

Check JRCC who went from 59.98 to 40.50 in three sessions, IPI went from 67.40 to 52 in 4 sessions. POT went from 233 to 201 in three sessions.

Some of these names bounced BIG TIME today..POT bounced 15 points off the low, MOS who dropped 25 points in three days bounced 12 points in one day.

I think today while I was goofing off with the kiddo it was risk day on the AGs but I also think they take them lower into Labor Day and then higher into the end of the year..
 
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Posted: #107
I got to believe massive redemptions are coming.  There is no reason for John Q 401 K to be anything but bearish, and on top of that, Average Joe Yahoo Six Pack Investor is going to be reminded just how terrible everything is every time he goes to the pump, or to the grocery store.
 
What's even worse is that we really haven't seen grocery inflation yet.  The extra transportation costs haven't been dumped on Joe Six Pack.............. yet.
 
Add lay-offs to that, paltry job raises, etc.....and MASSIVE REDEMPTIONS are coming.
 
The measly, pathetic "stimulus package" didn't do a damn thing.
 
Mutual funds know what's coming.
 
And yeah, I agree, the horror of Q3 will make Q2 look tame, then you figure on a re-test of the Q3 lows some time in Sept/Oct.....and then "I hope" at least the worst of the carnage is over.
 
Time to bunker down, cause the US stock market and economy are now under full throttle blitzkrieg.
 
Sucks.
 
Veteran
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Joined: Jan, 2006
Posts: 2704
Posted: #108
Wallstreet -

The news by DRYS today:

  • good news
  • bad news
  • indifferent
I do not know the company well enough to be able to digest it.  What I am hoping is it is not an attempt to pump earnings with a one time event.
 
 
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Posted: #109
Holdem,

GOOD news.

George has been renewing the fleet the entire year.

If you do the math like this it is easy to break down.

Sold the three ships for 213M, those ships were 10,11 and 14 years old.

He bought FOUR ships, one new in 1Q 2009, two new this year and one a year old and spend 400M, or 100M each.

Six months ago there were transactions of 100M for 5-10 yr old ships, even more, yet George paid 100M each for delivered NEW ships.

I think he has more work to do in updating the fleet and I bet eventually all the ships built earlier than 2000 will be moved.

DRYS has the youngest fleet age of any public company, AND the market is not valuing the OR acquisition yet. I also read that for sure the 2 rigs from Cardiff will be rolled into the IPO for the new company. Do the math on the potential for the OR spinoff, with 6 ultra deep rigs, averaging 90- 95% utilization and 650k per day and 150k per day in expenses you see potential EBITDA of 985,500,000 for the spinoff and I think proper valuation for the group is 5.3 times. So that gives reasonable current spinoff market cap of between 1B and 5B.

Current market cap for DRYS is 2.94 and a PE of 4.5 to 5 for 2008 and 2009 WITHOUT including the OR investment.

I could be low on the 4 rigs which come into use in 2011.

There is enough reason to buy and hold the DRYS shares based on the dry bulk portion, but definitely reason based on the OR assets.  
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