Buzz saw my man...let them run it a few days and attack once the reversal is confirmed? I have to agree though with the summer bid/offers being so thin they can reverse anything with no volume and take it down easy.
WSC-
As usual, good points, cause manipulators could easily run this another 4-5 points----still an absolute ton of short interest out there to terrorize.
However, it comes down to style for me. If I "wait and see what happens," then I will wait forever. As you know, nothing looks "obvious" when prices are moving up/down at light speed.
I believe C is not only technically overbought now, but also fundamentally overpriced, especially given the hideous economic prospects for Q3. Yes, yes, "the market always discounts the next 6-9 months." To me, the economic horror of the present has much more than 6-9 months left.
I will short C at Monday's open unless it opens down a bunch. If it moves to 23-24 (which is about as high as it can technically go according to me), then I will double up. I usually hate "averaging down," but I am 100% convinced that C is total trash. The only thing which could save it from the 10-12 level is the takeover threat, which is a distinct possibility given how worthless the US dollar is.
Anyway...........
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Quote Originally Posted by wallstreetcappers:
CC,
Buzz saw my man...let them run it a few days and attack once the reversal is confirmed? I have to agree though with the summer bid/offers being so thin they can reverse anything with no volume and take it down easy.
WSC-
As usual, good points, cause manipulators could easily run this another 4-5 points----still an absolute ton of short interest out there to terrorize.
However, it comes down to style for me. If I "wait and see what happens," then I will wait forever. As you know, nothing looks "obvious" when prices are moving up/down at light speed.
I believe C is not only technically overbought now, but also fundamentally overpriced, especially given the hideous economic prospects for Q3. Yes, yes, "the market always discounts the next 6-9 months." To me, the economic horror of the present has much more than 6-9 months left.
I will short C at Monday's open unless it opens down a bunch. If it moves to 23-24 (which is about as high as it can technically go according to me), then I will double up. I usually hate "averaging down," but I am 100% convinced that C is total trash. The only thing which could save it from the 10-12 level is the takeover threat, which is a distinct possibility given how worthless the US dollar is.
Good post. Peak was in October 2007 and peak to trough has been just over 23%. Dow has a very similar number. Nasdaq almost 25%. All in only about 9 months. It does seem like the pain will continue through the year and for another 10-15%.
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Good post. Peak was in October 2007 and peak to trough has been just over 23%. Dow has a very similar number. Nasdaq almost 25%. All in only about 9 months. It does seem like the pain will continue through the year and for another 10-15%.
The only problem with your theory is where the markets were on those other occasions. All but the last example, the markets were much lower and a smaller move down meant a larger percentage. I dont think we see a 40% move in this bear market. We could range/trend trade for a few years in a new lower range..much like Japan did after their fall..
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Vermeer,
The only problem with your theory is where the markets were on those other occasions. All but the last example, the markets were much lower and a smaller move down meant a larger percentage. I dont think we see a 40% move in this bear market. We could range/trend trade for a few years in a new lower range..much like Japan did after their fall..
We drop at least another 25-50% on SP from current levels.
This recession has just begun, and let's face it, the typical bear market lasts 3-5 years, at least....that's being optimistic.
We won't "recover" until well in to 2010, and by then, the damage will probably be insurmountable.
GREAT DEPRESSION II
I hope your wrong but sadly I'm starting to buy into it.....
dont want to whine about how much money i've lost but I never thought I'd get buried as much as I have. Some were from high risk trades but even my "low" risk stocks have killed me like IGT. Have been learning lessons though....been taking profits right away lately and not looking back. Even a few hundred at a time. Good luck all.
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Quote Originally Posted by claycourtlesson:
We drop at least another 25-50% on SP from current levels.
This recession has just begun, and let's face it, the typical bear market lasts 3-5 years, at least....that's being optimistic.
We won't "recover" until well in to 2010, and by then, the damage will probably be insurmountable.
GREAT DEPRESSION II
I hope your wrong but sadly I'm starting to buy into it.....
dont want to whine about how much money i've lost but I never thought I'd get buried as much as I have. Some were from high risk trades but even my "low" risk stocks have killed me like IGT. Have been learning lessons though....been taking profits right away lately and not looking back. Even a few hundred at a time. Good luck all.
"Usury was legalized by a Democratic Congress and a Democratic President in1980, and the Republicans piled on of course." William Greider.
Of course he refers to the deregulation of industries and the merger of commercial and investment banks etc etc. all as a reaction to...inflation.
Regulation of banking...an interesting concept.Try to blame whatever party, his point is valid, and as an independent, I could care less who shoulders most of the blame. They are the similar pigs feeding from the same trough.
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"Usury was legalized by a Democratic Congress and a Democratic President in1980, and the Republicans piled on of course." William Greider.
Of course he refers to the deregulation of industries and the merger of commercial and investment banks etc etc. all as a reaction to...inflation.
Regulation of banking...an interesting concept.Try to blame whatever party, his point is valid, and as an independent, I could care less who shoulders most of the blame. They are the similar pigs feeding from the same trough.
The only problem with your theory is where the markets were on those other occasions. All but the last example, the markets were much lower and a smaller move down meant a larger percentage. I dont think we see a 40% move in this bear market. We could range/trend trade for a few years in a new lower range..much like Japan did after their fall..
Good point WSC, but I will say, Japan is not a promising example of recovery. If we get mired like the Japanese did, we are looking at a very, very long time to recover.
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Quote Originally Posted by wallstreetcappers:
Vermeer,
The only problem with your theory is where the markets were on those other occasions. All but the last example, the markets were much lower and a smaller move down meant a larger percentage. I dont think we see a 40% move in this bear market. We could range/trend trade for a few years in a new lower range..much like Japan did after their fall..
Good point WSC, but I will say, Japan is not a promising example of recovery. If we get mired like the Japanese did, we are looking at a very, very long time to recover.
"Integrity does not exist at this time in our financial system."
Ah, that quaint concept of integrity. Something that was laughed at during the 1980s and 1990s, and considered oh so "unsophisticated" during the Clinton years.
The Clintonites actually believed people who thought a Prez should not lie to the FBI were simpletons, and were reacting to a simple blow job.
Wrong.May he continue to enjoy the hapless ministrations of mall rats everywhere he treads.
Pathetic, really. Almost as pathetic as watching a political system use taxpayers to save corporations while leaving the average American to be stuck with the tab.
But in DC, that passes for "sophistication."
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"Integrity does not exist at this time in our financial system."
Ah, that quaint concept of integrity. Something that was laughed at during the 1980s and 1990s, and considered oh so "unsophisticated" during the Clinton years.
The Clintonites actually believed people who thought a Prez should not lie to the FBI were simpletons, and were reacting to a simple blow job.
Wrong.May he continue to enjoy the hapless ministrations of mall rats everywhere he treads.
Pathetic, really. Almost as pathetic as watching a political system use taxpayers to save corporations while leaving the average American to be stuck with the tab.
I hope you guys arent going into the short financial ETFs, the news has been good, and I am getting angry about missing all these moves. BAC up over 50% from the lows from last week, still with a fat divi yield.
KBE almost up 9 bucks from last week low.
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I hope you guys arent going into the short financial ETFs, the news has been good, and I am getting angry about missing all these moves. BAC up over 50% from the lows from last week, still with a fat divi yield.
I'm not touching financials. i wouldn't be a seller or a buyer here. It'd be tough to buy after the sick run-ups some of them have had. but tough to short, if we continue to get "good news" on earnings.
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I'm not touching financials. i wouldn't be a seller or a buyer here. It'd be tough to buy after the sick run-ups some of them have had. but tough to short, if we continue to get "good news" on earnings.
I did buy DIA puts this morning on the gap up, i've already sold half and have a stop for the second half to secure at least break-even. I'll move the stop up soon if the DIA goes below $114.10, confirming a lower low and the start of a downtrend on the short term time frames (30min, 5min). I have the AUG $119 puts, at a $5.00 basis. Sold half at $5.30.
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I did buy DIA puts this morning on the gap up, i've already sold half and have a stop for the second half to secure at least break-even. I'll move the stop up soon if the DIA goes below $114.10, confirming a lower low and the start of a downtrend on the short term time frames (30min, 5min). I have the AUG $119 puts, at a $5.00 basis. Sold half at $5.30.
In all reality, fair value for AAPL is 70 maybe..that would still value them at a good PE given the slowdown in sales momentum.
GOOG still 200 bucks overvalued longer term, maybe 250.
RIMM overvalued by 40 points.
Naz down tomorrow, amazing seeing stocks like PCLN, AMZN etc so overvalued for where the market is. It goes to show you where the pain is, the smaller cap stocks getting smacked and old tech, stocks like SNDK etc.
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AAPL down 16 in after hours, pulling a GOOG.
In all reality, fair value for AAPL is 70 maybe..that would still value them at a good PE given the slowdown in sales momentum.
GOOG still 200 bucks overvalued longer term, maybe 250.
RIMM overvalued by 40 points.
Naz down tomorrow, amazing seeing stocks like PCLN, AMZN etc so overvalued for where the market is. It goes to show you where the pain is, the smaller cap stocks getting smacked and old tech, stocks like SNDK etc.
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