JULY STOCK TALK IV

WSC-

As usual, good points, cause manipulators could easily run this another 4-5 points----still an absolute ton of short interest out there to terrorize.

However, it comes down to style for me.  If I "wait and see what happens," then I will wait forever.  As you know, nothing looks "obvious" when prices are moving up/down at light speed. 

I believe C is not only technically overbought now, but also fundamentally overpriced, especially given the hideous economic prospects for Q3.  Yes, yes, "the market always discounts the next 6-9 months."  To me, the economic horror of the present has much more than 6-9 months left.

I will short C at Monday's open unless it opens down a bunch.  If it moves to 23-24 (which is about as high as it can technically go according to me), then I will double up.  I usually hate "averaging down," but I am 100% convinced that C is total trash.  The only thing which could save it from the 10-12 level is the takeover threat, which is a distinct possibility given how worthless the US dollar is.

Anyway...........

let's take a look at some of the previous bear markets we've weathered and see how far the S&P had to fall before it began to recover:

• From 1969 - 1971: 33% drop
• From 1973 - 1975: 48% drop
• From 1980 - 1982: 26% drop
• From 2000 - 2003: 48% drop

From this data you can see that from peak to trough, the average bear market will show a 38.75% decline each time.

Considering we just crossed the 20% mark, it's fair to say we've got a ways to go before we approach the average.

Remember, These are Just Indicators!

The thing you really need to keep in mind is that all of this data:

• Home sales
• Energy Prices
• Market index levels

They're all simply indicators of where we are.

Good post.  Peak was in October 2007 and peak to trough has been just over 23%.  Dow has a very similar number.  Nasdaq almost 25%.  All in only about 9 months.  It does seem like the pain will continue through the year and for another 10-15%.

 D2, I think so, would prefer not to, but...one person I listen to think 12-18 months for housing to stabilize.Was hoping he was gonna say 9 months...

Vermeer,

The only problem with your theory is where the markets were on those other occasions. All but the last example, the markets were much lower and a smaller move down meant a larger percentage. I dont think we see a 40% move in this bear market. We could range/trend trade for a few years in a new lower range..much like Japan did after their fall..

 

 

the sky is not falling chicken little.  Housing bounces back a year from now.  Oil bubble gets popped and settles back under $100.

 "Usury was legalized by a Democratic Congress and a Democratic President in1980, and the Republicans piled on of course." William Greider.

 Of course he refers to the deregulation of industries and the merger of commercial and investment banks etc etc. all as a reaction to...inflation.

  Regulation of banking...an interesting concept.Try to blame whatever party, his point is valid, and as an independent, I could care less who shoulders most of the blame. They are the similar pigs feeding from the same trough.

 Good point WSC, but I will say, Japan is not a promising example of recovery. If we get mired like the Japanese did, we are looking at a very, very long time to recover.

"Integrity does not exist at this time in our financial system."

 Ah, that quaint concept of integrity. Something that was laughed at during the 1980s and 1990s, and considered oh so "unsophisticated" during the Clinton years.

 The Clintonites actually believed people who thought a Prez should not lie to the FBI were simpletons, and were reacting to a simple blow job.

 Wrong.May he continue to enjoy the hapless ministrations of mall rats everywhere he treads.

Pathetic, really.  Almost as pathetic as watching a political system use taxpayers to save corporations while leaving the average American to be stuck with the tab.

 But in DC, that passes for "sophistication."
 

I hope you guys arent going into the short financial ETFs, the news has been good, and I am getting angry about missing all these moves. BAC up over 50% from the lows from last week, still with a fat divi yield.

KBE almost up 9 bucks from last week low.

Gunners,

SMART play, these soft opens where they feebley move it higher then sell into the afternoon has been a low risk way to daytrade.

Tech leeking a bit..GOOG, AAPL etc, plenty more to go of course.

 I am eagerly awaiting SKF's return yet again to $100 

WSC Gunners et al  what is your opinion of shadowstats.com?

OK, not interested in subscribing or pushing it, just wanted an honest estimation.The academic creds of the guy are legit.

OK, not interested in subscribing or pushing it, just wanted an honest estimation.The academic creds of the guy are legit.

Never seen it either, but I will snoop later today.

AAPL down 16 in after hours, pulling a GOOG.

In all reality, fair value for AAPL is 70 maybe..that would still value them at a good PE given the slowdown in sales momentum.

GOOG still 200 bucks overvalued longer term, maybe 250.

RIMM overvalued by 40 points.

Naz down tomorrow, amazing seeing stocks like PCLN, AMZN etc so overvalued for where the market is. It goes to show you where the pain is, the smaller cap stocks getting smacked and old tech, stocks like SNDK etc.