I am quite ticked that my GTC order on the Lb.USD trade didnt hit, that has been on fire.
I am observing a few currencies heating up, mainly the Aussie Dollar and the Swiss Franc..they are getting up there and the Yen has been getting hit for a while, it is getting down there.
I will probably be looking for Yen. pairs and shorting the AUD/CHF or inverse long pairs soon.
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I am quite ticked that my GTC order on the Lb.USD trade didnt hit, that has been on fire.
I am observing a few currencies heating up, mainly the Aussie Dollar and the Swiss Franc..they are getting up there and the Yen has been getting hit for a while, it is getting down there.
I will probably be looking for Yen. pairs and shorting the AUD/CHF or inverse long pairs soon.
I like all the Yen pairs if the selling continues..they arent 100% oversold yet but getting there.
This LB.USD pair is on FIRE..I might have to take a stab going short for a flip trade, if she moves to 1.44 I might take a short trade.
The EU.AUD pair turned south again..the AUD is very very strong lately, check out the AUD.CD...holy crap! If that hits .88 today I will consider shorting it too.
Also the AUD.Yen is getting close to a triple top, I will watch to see if it can pass 69.50 or so.
Look at a weekly chart on the US.Yen, it has a 5 top resistance just about here..if she breaks 99.75 that could be danger but it is very very tempting to take a short above 99 for a risk/reward trade.
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I like all the Yen pairs if the selling continues..they arent 100% oversold yet but getting there.
This LB.USD pair is on FIRE..I might have to take a stab going short for a flip trade, if she moves to 1.44 I might take a short trade.
The EU.AUD pair turned south again..the AUD is very very strong lately, check out the AUD.CD...holy crap! If that hits .88 today I will consider shorting it too.
Also the AUD.Yen is getting close to a triple top, I will watch to see if it can pass 69.50 or so.
Look at a weekly chart on the US.Yen, it has a 5 top resistance just about here..if she breaks 99.75 that could be danger but it is very very tempting to take a short above 99 for a risk/reward trade.
Kind of been in and out lately reading your guys suggestions but lurking, pretty dissapointed i had to withdrawl the money from my live account, i was doing fairly well, but the mortgage had to be paid, went back to work at my army unit in the meantime. i have a few days to make up for a little bit of money til i find a new job.
it is tough out there.
anyway, i am kind of excited to see how the g20 affects the currencies, ( maybe better that i am on play dough again)
have a buy set up W/ usd/jpy if it hits 99.49
with a stop @ 98.99 and a limit of 100.50
going to be in and out
good luck guys
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Kind of been in and out lately reading your guys suggestions but lurking, pretty dissapointed i had to withdrawl the money from my live account, i was doing fairly well, but the mortgage had to be paid, went back to work at my army unit in the meantime. i have a few days to make up for a little bit of money til i find a new job.
it is tough out there.
anyway, i am kind of excited to see how the g20 affects the currencies, ( maybe better that i am on play dough again)
busy day at work so i wasnt able to check in at all... im short on the EUR/USD right now at... there is a wedge forming on the hourly and hoping it break to the down. also next wave of elliot waves should be down... well see
that link actually explains the exact trade im in. i guess when you look at charts enough you start to see the patterns
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nice to see you back rick
busy day at work so i wasnt able to check in at all... im short on the EUR/USD right now at... there is a wedge forming on the hourly and hoping it break to the down. also next wave of elliot waves should be down... well see
Man I hate it when I hit back on accident, it kills my post..grrrr
I am ok with the EU trade, that short bothers me more actually.
I did add another lot at 1.892 for a total of 4 lots.
Ive been messing around with day and week charts, if you can be patient and nab an overbought or oversold RSI on a day or even better WEEK chart it can cash huge..
Check out the EU.AUD on a day chart..overbought RSI on Oct 8th or so, ride her down and be patient to when it is oversold, you make 2300 pips on that trade..it took a month but shoot who couldnt handle that?
Long on Jan 6th or so when RSI was near 30, good for 1300 pips if you topped out at 2 bucks.
Using a week chart you could have nabbed the US.CHF short on Nov 23rd-ish over 1.22 and held to 1.05 in two weeks time, netting 1700 pips per contract. Long that day and take your 1200 pips in a 5 week period.
I dont think you have to wait for an exit, if an enterance shows itself long or short, take it and exit whenever you want knowing the odds are with you.
Thats why I really like this AUD short, it might be a little painful but on a daily chart the RSI is at 77, its highest level in over a year..I can hang with that and know technically it might blow off a top here but the odds are with me on the trade.
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Man I hate it when I hit back on accident, it kills my post..grrrr
I am ok with the EU trade, that short bothers me more actually.
I did add another lot at 1.892 for a total of 4 lots.
Ive been messing around with day and week charts, if you can be patient and nab an overbought or oversold RSI on a day or even better WEEK chart it can cash huge..
Check out the EU.AUD on a day chart..overbought RSI on Oct 8th or so, ride her down and be patient to when it is oversold, you make 2300 pips on that trade..it took a month but shoot who couldnt handle that?
Long on Jan 6th or so when RSI was near 30, good for 1300 pips if you topped out at 2 bucks.
Using a week chart you could have nabbed the US.CHF short on Nov 23rd-ish over 1.22 and held to 1.05 in two weeks time, netting 1700 pips per contract. Long that day and take your 1200 pips in a 5 week period.
I dont think you have to wait for an exit, if an enterance shows itself long or short, take it and exit whenever you want knowing the odds are with you.
Thats why I really like this AUD short, it might be a little painful but on a daily chart the RSI is at 77, its highest level in over a year..I can hang with that and know technically it might blow off a top here but the odds are with me on the trade.
not liking the direction this EUR/USD trade has taken... busted up through the wedge, and squeeze indicator showing up. will let it ride out with my limits/SL, but at this point im expecting losing trade.
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not liking the direction this EUR/USD trade has taken... busted up through the wedge, and squeeze indicator showing up. will let it ride out with my limits/SL, but at this point im expecting losing trade.
guess it will depend a lot on ECB rate decision...i get these emails from forex.com... here is what they have to say:
Commentary: The European Central Bank is expected to cut its target interest rate to 1.00% from 1.50% on Thursday, April 2nd, at 1145GMT. The forecast is a bit contentious, with some economists looking for a less aggressive -25 basis points cut while a minority actually see the ECB standing pat on rates. We think the overwhelming likelihood is that the bank does the full -50 basis points, in an effort to not be perceived as being even further behind the curve. If the bank cuts as expected, the main focus will once again be on the press conference at 1230GMT.
ECB President Trichet provided little in the way of a preview when he testified before the European Parliament Economic Committee earlier this week. However, there is speculation that the bank will announce some form of quantitative easing at the upcoming meeting and market participants will be keenly watching for this. Indications are that the bank will extend the terms of loans to major eurozone banks and that they may buy corporate debt to ease strains on firms facing difficulties in securing credit. ECB members alluded to some of these measures last week when they mentioned the possible purchase of private debt.
Ultimately, it could well end up being a lose/lose situation for EUR. If the ECB does announce some form of balance sheet expansion, the EUR is likely to come under renewed pressure on the notion that the bank is now printing money. We would expect the negative EUR reaction to mirror the downbeat reaction in USD when the Fed announced their quantitative easing initiative a few weeks ago. If the ECB fails to announce measures beyond a rate cut, the market is likely to exact punishment on the EUR just as well. Traders will probably view the unwillingness to act on this front as a prescription for an even weaker economy going forward.
Trading Strategy: The overall strategy remains to sell EUR on strength rather than buy it on dips. If the ECB cuts rates by the expected -50 basis points and indicates that aggressive quantitative easing is on the horizon, we would expect EUR to head markedly lower. The latest hourly consolidation in EUR/USD can be approached in a couple of ways - as a pennant consolidation or a symmetric triangle consolidation. The former would project EUR/USD down to 1.2700 eventually, while the latter points to a more modest correction to 1.3000/1.2970. The break level comes in by 1.3180 for both patterns. If the ECB does not announce quantitative easing, the move lower could stall into the 1.3110/00 zone. Moves higher, meanwhile, should find a good barrier into the 1.3280/90 and 1.3340/50 zones.
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guess it will depend a lot on ECB rate decision...i get these emails from forex.com... here is what they have to say:
Commentary: The European Central Bank is expected to cut its target interest rate to 1.00% from 1.50% on Thursday, April 2nd, at 1145GMT. The forecast is a bit contentious, with some economists looking for a less aggressive -25 basis points cut while a minority actually see the ECB standing pat on rates. We think the overwhelming likelihood is that the bank does the full -50 basis points, in an effort to not be perceived as being even further behind the curve. If the bank cuts as expected, the main focus will once again be on the press conference at 1230GMT.
ECB President Trichet provided little in the way of a preview when he testified before the European Parliament Economic Committee earlier this week. However, there is speculation that the bank will announce some form of quantitative easing at the upcoming meeting and market participants will be keenly watching for this. Indications are that the bank will extend the terms of loans to major eurozone banks and that they may buy corporate debt to ease strains on firms facing difficulties in securing credit. ECB members alluded to some of these measures last week when they mentioned the possible purchase of private debt.
Ultimately, it could well end up being a lose/lose situation for EUR. If the ECB does announce some form of balance sheet expansion, the EUR is likely to come under renewed pressure on the notion that the bank is now printing money. We would expect the negative EUR reaction to mirror the downbeat reaction in USD when the Fed announced their quantitative easing initiative a few weeks ago. If the ECB fails to announce measures beyond a rate cut, the market is likely to exact punishment on the EUR just as well. Traders will probably view the unwillingness to act on this front as a prescription for an even weaker economy going forward.
Trading Strategy: The overall strategy remains to sell EUR on strength rather than buy it on dips. If the ECB cuts rates by the expected -50 basis points and indicates that aggressive quantitative easing is on the horizon, we would expect EUR to head markedly lower. The latest hourly consolidation in EUR/USD can be approached in a couple of ways - as a pennant consolidation or a symmetric triangle consolidation. The former would project EUR/USD down to 1.2700 eventually, while the latter points to a more modest correction to 1.3000/1.2970. The break level comes in by 1.3180 for both patterns. If the ECB does not announce quantitative easing, the move lower could stall into the 1.3110/00 zone. Moves higher, meanwhile, should find a good barrier into the 1.3280/90 and 1.3340/50 zones.
So they are saying either way, the Euro will keep going lower.
Its holding in there versus most of the counter pairs..it is definitely under pressure though, very low RSI for DAYS against the GB and the ON FIRE AUD.
I am a bit shocked that the steel issues and slowing demand arent hurting the AUD more...
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Very interesting..
So they are saying either way, the Euro will keep going lower.
Its holding in there versus most of the counter pairs..it is definitely under pressure though, very low RSI for DAYS against the GB and the ON FIRE AUD.
I am a bit shocked that the steel issues and slowing demand arent hurting the AUD more...
im on the playdough again, until i can scratch up around 2g's to do a mini account .
my usd/jpy triggered today, and it has been up and down but fairly calm around 99.50 i like the charts, ill have to wait and see in a few how it looks.
it would be nice to see it hit 100 tonight, but i may hold for another day to see what it does,
stop still set @98.99
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im on the playdough again, until i can scratch up around 2g's to do a mini account .
my usd/jpy triggered today, and it has been up and down but fairly calm around 99.50 i like the charts, ill have to wait and see in a few how it looks.
it would be nice to see it hit 100 tonight, but i may hold for another day to see what it does,
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