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Mikey's Corner Part Duo

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Posted: #126
JAX look at charts of CAT ACI BTU CMI at January lows then look at NSC UNP CSX....Wanna short?????
 
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Posted: #127
I am going to wait for an up day and get a better price on October/November puts.

I think once LEH announces something/anything the market as a whole will rise for a few days.  Everybody wants to be short with LEH withering away like it is, as evidenced by the VIX rising above 24.

I am waiting for LEH to hopefully get back into the $8's and I will probably jump in.  Huge volume today and if Fuld announces anything at all short of "We are closing the doors" it should see a pop.
 
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Posted: #128
Buying GM here 11.10
 
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Posted: #129
Buying LEH with $5 put hedge on close
 
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Posted: #130
Well I missed out on buying LEH today as I had to leave the office and I wasn't going to buy unless I could be near my computer in case the shit hit the fan.

Maybe it was good luck, maybe it was bad luck, we will see in the morning.


I just went and read the Mikey v1.0 thread and boy am I mad at myself for forgetting to check in on FSLR over the last 2 weeks.
 
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Posted: #131
jax,

LEH is falling in after hours, if you want to take a stab you can buy in extended hours for 7.49 on the offer which is 20 cents lower than the low of the day.  
 
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Posted: #132

I use options as hedges not as speculation over a price move. The LEH buy and the 5 put was an insurance policy against a complete wipe out . I will also sell calls against long positions when the stock is extended rather than selling the stock or I will sell puts against short positions if the stock is extended down.

   Buying options from the long side always seem like a good idea but the volitility of the options prices force you constantly make decisions ...daily about the direction of the underlying security. These decisons ultimately will take you away from your game and in the end lead to confusion. The shorter term that you trade causes you to make more decisions and more decisions always end bad.

 
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Posted: #133
An observation about OPEC and the price of oil.
Fact: When OPEC increases production the price goes up
         When OPEC cuts production the price goes down.
Remember when oil prices were rising?   What did OPEC do? It raised production. It started raising production in 2004/2005.
The price then was $50. Now it is cutting production. I will guse before it is all said and done oil is back to $50
That is the long term. The short term is oversold I am still am wishing  for a technical rally
 
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Posted: #134
HOW TO TRADE THE RAILROADS
Railroads make their money moving commodities and a big source of income for them is Coal transport. The demand for coal depends alot on the price of oil. As oil has decreased and economic activity has dropped. the demand for coal will decline
   Look at the charts of ACI and BTU two large coal producers.
Look at the chart of IYE...the oil index. They are identical because they reflect the demand for energy. Energy demand declines in a bad economy.
     The railroads trade like late oil and coal stocks. The rails NSC UNP UNP BNI CSX will look just like the chart of ACI and BTU and IYE at some point in the relatively near future.
 
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Posted: #135
I have orders today to short NSC at 68, CSX 59, UNP 78.
That is the 10 day average on each of these stocks. The 10 days average is falling so I will adjust these prices lower everyday to line up with the 10 day average.
 
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Posted: #136
The recent actions by the government are going to set the stage for a bottom in real estate. It is a process but it is the beginning of the end of the decline in real estate.  The next part of the process will be to tell the truth about how bad the econmy is. I assume that will be by the next administration.
  It is similar to what happens when a corporation restructures. The old CEO ...who trashed the company ...leaves and the new one writes off every thing that can be written off setting the stage for the next growth cycle. The process usually take 1.5 to 2 years to clean up before we launch a new bull cycle. I think we are in the phase just before the old CEO leaves and the new one comes in and deals with the problem in a meaning full way.
       The takeover of FNM FRE and the trashing of the commodity markest and the hugh recent drop in long rates  tell me the process of cleaning up the mess is at hand ..now all we need is time and pain to clean it up.
 
 
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Posted: #137
FNM is an interesting long term buy in the above senario. It will require lots and lots of patience but I think with the FEDS buying 80% of the stock and wil throw money at them for free and the long rates comming down it could be an explosive return for the patient long term investor...I would not buy it to trade but as a long term investment. We are talking years not days. Before you buy it expect to see it do nothing for a while.
To me it is a bet on real estate and the long term viablity of the mortgage market. But in the end I think you hit a home run on it
 
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Posted: #138
Once again I will say that these are only my thoughts based on past experiences. I am not a financial advisor..whatever that is...and you need to make your own decisions. You know I do what I do and you do what you do.
 
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Posted: #139
Everything I say here is based on past experiences that I have seen repeat over and over for the past 30 years and my interpretations of current market events. I guess I can say that through the years I have been an observer of behavior and I don't think that behavior has changed a bit. Take this commentary from that point of view
 
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Posted: #140
Expect a bounce on CMI to about 64 will short again there
 
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Posted: #141

Going to try the DIG again 66.87  Stop at 60 Target 76-80

 
 
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Posted: #142
STARTING A NEW THREAD
 
I will start a new thread at the beginning of each month.
I will call the new thread Mikey's Corner --Sept 08
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