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    All Forums | Investments

    National security and hedge fund betting

    Vermeer
    wallstreetcappers
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    Vermeer
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    Posted: May. 5, 2010 - 11:17 PM ET #1

    Given the ability of hedge funds to place destabilizing bets against any country's currency, why do not governments refuse to allow these "bets" on the basis of national security?

     We all know the various governments are to blame for fiscal irresponsibility, but, stipulating that, if you were running a country, would it not be your duty to prevent any financial activity that would destabilize and possibly destroy your country's civil/economic security?

     I am libertarian oriented, but there are basic practicalities to address for public safety. 3 people are dead in Greece, 3 more than died in the botched terrorist attack in Times Square.Many more will die if Europe gets completely out of control. 

    Why not simply suspend trading in these instruments? Curious what you guys feel about it.
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    To remove first post, remove entire topic.
    Given the ability of hedge funds to place destabilizing bets against any country's currency, why do not governments refuse to allow these "bets" on the basis of national security?

     We all know the various governments are to blame for fiscal irresponsibility, but, stipulating that, if you were running a country, would it not be your duty to prevent any financial activity that would destabilize and possibly destroy your country's civil/economic security?

     I am libertarian oriented, but there are basic practicalities to address for public safety. 3 people are dead in Greece, 3 more than died in the botched terrorist attack in Times Square.Many more will die if Europe gets completely out of control. 

    Why not simply suspend trading in these instruments? Curious what you guys feel about it.
     
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    Posted: May. 5, 2010 - 11:38 PM ET #2

    Portugal... Spain...Greece...these are all last week's news based on CDS trading patterns. Indeed, this week saw the biggest trade unwinds of all top 1000 CDS entities (including all corporates) precisely in these three names. As the PIIGS implosion is finally being appreciated by everyone and their grandmother, the "speculators" are booking massive profits: the net cover/rerisking in Portugal and Spain was a massive $500 million net notional unwinds in each in the week ended April 30. Also known as taking profits. Greece and Ireland were also in the top 5, so as we have repeatedly claimed, the market will no longer make the news in Club Med. So where will it? No surprise there - the UK, France and Germany. The smartest money in the world is now actively betting the core of the eurozone is where the next CDS blow up will take place.With a stunning $630 million, $558 million and $370 million in net notional derisking, France, UK and Germany are the top three most active recipients in negative bets in the prior week, not just in sovereigns but in all names.The greatest non-sovereign derisker in the last week? Goldman Sachs, with $175 million. Nuff said. Yet a tangent on the UK:last week the UK saw $443 million in net notional derisking.  This week the number is even higher: $558 million. There is now over $1 billion in net risky bets made that the UK may not last. And Zero Hedge's outside bet to be the first core country to blow up, thanks to its massive PIIGS exposure, France, finally made the top spot in net derisking, with $629 million in net notional, or 189 contracts. The smart money is now massively betting that Europe's core is done for; as the PIIGS have demonstrated, the blow out in spreads for the core trifecta can not be far behind.
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    Portugal... Spain...Greece...these are all last week's news based on CDS trading patterns. Indeed, this week saw the biggest trade unwinds of all top 1000 CDS entities (including all corporates) precisely in these three names. As the PIIGS implosion is finally being appreciated by everyone and their grandmother, the "speculators" are booking massive profits: the net cover/rerisking in Portugal and Spain was a massive $500 million net notional unwinds in each in the week ended April 30. Also known as taking profits. Greece and Ireland were also in the top 5, so as we have repeatedly claimed, the market will no longer make the news in Club Med. So where will it? No surprise there - the UK, France and Germany. The smartest money in the world is now actively betting the core of the eurozone is where the next CDS blow up will take place.With a stunning $630 million, $558 million and $370 million in net notional derisking, France, UK and Germany are the top three most active recipients in negative bets in the prior week, not just in sovereigns but in all names.The greatest non-sovereign derisker in the last week? Goldman Sachs, with $175 million. Nuff said. Yet a tangent on the UK:last week the UK saw $443 million in net notional derisking.  This week the number is even higher: $558 million. There is now over $1 billion in net risky bets made that the UK may not last. And Zero Hedge's outside bet to be the first core country to blow up, thanks to its massive PIIGS exposure, France, finally made the top spot in net derisking, with $629 million in net notional, or 189 contracts. The smart money is now massively betting that Europe's core is done for; as the PIIGS have demonstrated, the blow out in spreads for the core trifecta can not be far behind.
     
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    Posted: May. 5, 2010 - 11:38 PM ET #3

    above from Zero Hedge
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    above from Zero Hedge
     
    wallstreetcappers
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    Posted: May. 5, 2010 - 11:49 PM ET #4

    Goldman taking a negative bet on default swaps?

    Cant be...no way.

    Shut them down post haste.


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    Goldman taking a negative bet on default swaps?

    Cant be...no way.

    Shut them down post haste.


     
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    Posted: May. 6, 2010 - 7:53 AM ET #5

    Behold the age of infinite moral hazard! 

    Today is the 398th day of legalized accounting fraud on a grand scale. April 2nd, 2009 was the day CONgress forced FASB to suspend rule 157 in favor of deceitful accounting.
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    Behold the age of infinite moral hazard! 

    Today is the 398th day of legalized accounting fraud on a grand scale. April 2nd, 2009 was the day CONgress forced FASB to suspend rule 157 in favor of deceitful accounting.
     
    be easy
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    Posted: May. 6, 2010 - 10:39 AM ET #6

    national security you say?
     
    who was it that purchased 1.25 TRILLION of junk MBS over the last year?  nuke that enemy of the citizenry
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    national security you say?
     
    who was it that purchased 1.25 TRILLION of junk MBS over the last year?  nuke that enemy of the citizenry
     
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    Posted: May. 6, 2010 - 10:56 AM ET #7

    we can agree that the Fed is an abomination.

    However, why rationalize one abomination by another?




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    we can agree that the Fed is an abomination.

    However, why rationalize one abomination by another?




     
    wallstreetcappers
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    Posted: May. 6, 2010 - 11:29 AM ET #8

    So who do we point fingers at? If we were to take both hands and point fingers at parties who could be responsible there would be no fingers left.

    Is it the fault of the USG that we allow the private sector to control regulation and ensure that they can cheat without recourse?

    Is it the fault of the regulators who either werent looking or arent smart enough to catch the cheats?

    Is it the fault of the consumer who went overboard?

    Is it the fault of the business who ultimately broke their own internal and external rules about leveraging all to maximize profits and take risk?

    Or is it the fault of the FED who while we were teetering on the brink decided to support these crooks to save the economy?

    I dont like seeing rates this low, manipulation rampant, debt piling up..not good but to lay the blame on the FED is just pathetic and incorrect from my vantage point.


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    So who do we point fingers at? If we were to take both hands and point fingers at parties who could be responsible there would be no fingers left.

    Is it the fault of the USG that we allow the private sector to control regulation and ensure that they can cheat without recourse?

    Is it the fault of the regulators who either werent looking or arent smart enough to catch the cheats?

    Is it the fault of the consumer who went overboard?

    Is it the fault of the business who ultimately broke their own internal and external rules about leveraging all to maximize profits and take risk?

    Or is it the fault of the FED who while we were teetering on the brink decided to support these crooks to save the economy?

    I dont like seeing rates this low, manipulation rampant, debt piling up..not good but to lay the blame on the FED is just pathetic and incorrect from my vantage point.


     
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    Posted: May. 6, 2010 - 11:29 AM ET #9

    Quote Originally Posted by Vermeer:

    we can agree that the Fed is an abomination.

    However, why rationalize one abomination by another?






    not rationalizing, just first thing that come's to mind when i read gov't/national security/money

    gov't forces those who work for a living to be paid exclusively in dollars. one must work to survive(i think) so that would be pertinent to the security of the citizenry of a nation. diluting the high hell out of our labor/money supply will eventually lead to destabilization.

    sorry, i can never stay on track

    especially when i read

    Given the ability of hedge funds to place destabilizing bets against any country's currency, why do not governments refuse to allow these "bets" on the basis of national security?

    speed reading


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    Quote Originally Posted by Vermeer:

    we can agree that the Fed is an abomination.

    However, why rationalize one abomination by another?






    not rationalizing, just first thing that come's to mind when i read gov't/national security/money

    gov't forces those who work for a living to be paid exclusively in dollars. one must work to survive(i think) so that would be pertinent to the security of the citizenry of a nation. diluting the high hell out of our labor/money supply will eventually lead to destabilization.

    sorry, i can never stay on track

    especially when i read

    Given the ability of hedge funds to place destabilizing bets against any country's currency, why do not governments refuse to allow these "bets" on the basis of national security?

    speed reading


     
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    Posted: May. 6, 2010 - 11:44 AM ET #10

    Well, I DO blame the Fed Wall, and I DO blame the existence of an entity that can open access to (eventually) 8 trillion dollars and refuse to reveal to a Senate committee which bank go what money, which is what Bernanke did.There is no way that to consider that is what the founding fathers had in mind as a democracy.

     My point is, I DO blame a wide variety of people (including the average American mortgage broker, real estate agent and house flipper) for contributing to the meltdown.

    And yes the Fed is responsible for the complete obliteration of the value of the dollar. 

      But that is the past. My point is that current governments may or may not have been participants of that crime.But it is incumbent upon them to prevent hysteria being ratcheted up against a country's currency...watching a country blow up is not th same as watching an investment bank blow up. Weimar Germany is proof enough of that...we don't need a repeat.



    And yes the Fed is responsible for the complete obliteration of the value of the dollar. 

     
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    Well, I DO blame the Fed Wall, and I DO blame the existence of an entity that can open access to (eventually) 8 trillion dollars and refuse to reveal to a Senate committee which bank go what money, which is what Bernanke did.There is no way that to consider that is what the founding fathers had in mind as a democracy.

     My point is, I DO blame a wide variety of people (including the average American mortgage broker, real estate agent and house flipper) for contributing to the meltdown.

    And yes the Fed is responsible for the complete obliteration of the value of the dollar. 

      But that is the past. My point is that current governments may or may not have been participants of that crime.But it is incumbent upon them to prevent hysteria being ratcheted up against a country's currency...watching a country blow up is not th same as watching an investment bank blow up. Weimar Germany is proof enough of that...we don't need a repeat.



    And yes the Fed is responsible for the complete obliteration of the value of the dollar. 

     
     
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    Posted: May. 6, 2010 - 11:46 AM ET #11

    Sorry for the repeat, forgot to cut that last line.
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    Sorry for the repeat, forgot to cut that last line.
     
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    Posted: May. 6, 2010 - 12:02 PM ET #12

    Vermeer,

    I consider that extremely short sided to blame the last person on the rope.

    My contention is that business caused this, business cheated, congress isnt far behind by being owned by business.

    Forget money supply, Ive discussed this before but the reality is that you can print until the cows come home and that does not equate to overleveraging.

    A parallel would be that since credit was so cheap for so long that every single person in the country would have feasted on it and lived outside their means.

    Of course the onus is the business/consumer etc regarding proper use of cheap money and credit.

    If banks and non-banks hadnt over leveraged then the collapse wouldnt have occurred, the mortgage market would not have imploded and we wouldnt be in this position.

    Just because the temptation is there it does not mean you have to partake.

    I look further down the rope in laying blame..and I dont agree that supplying cheap money equates to bubbles..it only equates to bubbles when business ratios are ignored.
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    Vermeer,

    I consider that extremely short sided to blame the last person on the rope.

    My contention is that business caused this, business cheated, congress isnt far behind by being owned by business.

    Forget money supply, Ive discussed this before but the reality is that you can print until the cows come home and that does not equate to overleveraging.

    A parallel would be that since credit was so cheap for so long that every single person in the country would have feasted on it and lived outside their means.

    Of course the onus is the business/consumer etc regarding proper use of cheap money and credit.

    If banks and non-banks hadnt over leveraged then the collapse wouldnt have occurred, the mortgage market would not have imploded and we wouldnt be in this position.

    Just because the temptation is there it does not mean you have to partake.

    I look further down the rope in laying blame..and I dont agree that supplying cheap money equates to bubbles..it only equates to bubbles when business ratios are ignored.
     
     
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    Posted: May. 6, 2010 - 12:18 PM ET #13

    1. It is the role of government to regulate and incarcerate those who violate securities laws. I have not seen many perp walks yet.

    2. The Fed and the Federal government created the conditions for calamity.Then when questioned if there were not serious dangers to their loose money policies, denied it. 

    3.The Fed continues to refuse to disclose who the specific recipients of trillions. (Check the Nomi Prins/Bernie Sanders Afterwords interview a while back).

    4. I believe there are literally hundreds of people who actively and knowingly committed fraud, and all of them should be prosecuted. As it is, none are being prosecuted.That includes people currently serving in Congress and in the Federal Reserve


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    1. It is the role of government to regulate and incarcerate those who violate securities laws. I have not seen many perp walks yet.

    2. The Fed and the Federal government created the conditions for calamity.Then when questioned if there were not serious dangers to their loose money policies, denied it. 

    3.The Fed continues to refuse to disclose who the specific recipients of trillions. (Check the Nomi Prins/Bernie Sanders Afterwords interview a while back).

    4. I believe there are literally hundreds of people who actively and knowingly committed fraud, and all of them should be prosecuted. As it is, none are being prosecuted.That includes people currently serving in Congress and in the Federal Reserve


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