November Stock talk I

Hat,

The catalyst for the stock is gone for a bit..the volume is very low and just nothing to be thrilled about. They had great earnings and are a LOWER beta stock so it wont have those DRYS sort of days up and down.

welcome to the forum snowman, yeah DRYS is a project, until the shorts get knocked in the mouth they will keep playing it.

 Not to be my usual gloomy self...oh hell, why not...I agree with this:

The credit card industry, which collects 23% interest and $12 billion in late fees from consumers, is lining up to get their piece of the $700 billion bank handout. Capital One has just received a $3.6 billion injection from the American taxpayer, one week after projecting that their write-offs will be $7.2 billion in the next twelve months. This will allow them to send another million offers to more people who shouldn't have a credit card. Why not? The taxpayer will pay, if the losses are too high.

In our heyday during the 1950s, manufacturing accounted for 25% of GDP. In 1980 it was still 22% of GDP. Today it is 12% of GDP. By 2010 it will be under 10% of GDP. Our Government bureaucracy, which contributes nothing to the advancement of our society, now is a larger portion of GDP than manufacturing. Services such as banking, retail sales, transportation, and health care now account for two-thirds of the value of U.S. GDP. We have become a nation of bureaucratic paper pushers. Past U.S. generations invented the airplane; invented the automobile; discovered penicillin; and built the Interstate highway system. The Baby Boom generation has invented credit default swaps; mortgage backed securities; the fast food drive thru window; discovered the cure for erectile dysfunction; and built bridges to nowhere.

Hat,

Not for long, just for shock value..

Well there is a wrinkle to that story, might end up ok, might not.

Wall, what do you think of the chances of BUD deal going through despite the meltdown?

PS

What do you think likely of DRYS in the next 12/24 months?

Vermeer,

I think it goes through, the BUD deal.

DRYS will be fine once/if the credit issues resolve themselves and trade starts to flow again. They have locked charters to earn 6 per share no matter what without adding any value from the current spot assets or the UDW assets. I think fair value of both entities in a NORMAL market is 100 per share..if that tells you anything. They have almost 50 ships, all young in age and the drilling entity..if spot gets back near the LTC's that DRYS has that would mean 10 per share earnings..put a multiple on there and thats how I get 100.

Tons of variables though.

Hat, you have to do what you have to..I am not afraid of HLIT dropping much, this is market action speaking..the company is selling at less than 10 times earnings with ZERO debt..its a solid holding longer term.

Thanks Wall. I am more concerned about the ultimate outcome for DRYS a bit more than the BUD deal, but who knows.I have much less involved in DRYS but am also much deeper underwater (no pun intended).

 I think I am going to bet a decent sum (for me) on BUD as the offer was for $70...I think the risk reward ratio is OK, but I have been fooled before when things crapped out, and given the queasy credit markets...I was going back and forth with myself over committing such funds.

I am hoping to see SKF navigate down to the magic $100 level as well.

Vermeer,

I guess the issue with BUD is the financing of the buyout..

Since there is a wide spread on the deal, if it didnt go through the downside isnt all that bad, but you make a good point..who knows if ANY M&A deals can get done that need bank financing?

What a phony rally yesterday, they are selling it down strongly and slowly all day long..no rally attempts at all.

I expected a down day but this action is worse than I expected.  

 Yup it is the financing that is the question, and who knows what shoe drops and another deal gets canceled I may pass, but it is a tempting possibly $7/share uptick.

Hat,

The answers in there are right on the money regarding soccer.

Vermeer, some guys on yahoo are talking about an LBO for DRYS. That would really really tick me off to no end. If someone were to snatch up this stock at such a great deal and rob the longer term holders, well I would be quite upset.

 Wall: What you mention is one of my biggest fears as well. I do not see why that would not happen at these prices, and it would be really screw me and piss me off no end.

 My question is, why would that scenario NOT be getting done right now??

 To me it makes a lot of sense, but I would get hosed.

This sell off today is BS.  There is almost no volume on this at all.

I'm buying in the last 10 minutes.  I think we close down about 350 when the bell rings, right around the 20 DMA

Vermeer,

Getting bank financing is impossible right now, thats the only thing holding it back..and I am glad because the stock is so undervalued it is pathetic, but then there are many others similar in the market.

This volume is picking up, selling getting stronger. Down 500 on some heavy late trading..not at all good.  

Or we go lower in the last 10 minutes and still none of my order get filled  

Damn and I missed SKF I was gonna cheat on my resolution and buy above 110...

WS-

Read it again.  She is totally wrong.  She was saying that my +.5 at +128 wager on Celtic today meant Celtic had to win the game or I lost.  So I asked her well, why wouldn't people just play the ML at +455 and increase their odds of winning more money?  She said:  "Well it depends on the customer....I guess some take it for some reason."  

That's why I kept asking her to see if she would realize that what she is saying makes no sense.  Then she tried to tell me that is how all soccer wagers work and that I should know what I am wagering on before I do it.

She really should have her conversation in the archives.  The answers and reasoning she gave me today were classic!

She sure didnt know what she was talking about.

Unless the wager says draw in it, then you are playing the win.

I bet if you got another person on IM they would say a different explanation..

If an LBO were to go through for DRYS what kind of price would be able to expect?  I'd be furious

I'd like to at least recoup my costs and thensome . . . but at least my costs.  Right now that is around the mid 30's and I don't think people pay 50% premiums even if stocks are beaten down.  Sigh.