I dont get the market at all. It loses almost 800 points because congress denys the bailout plan. Then today its up 315 points but then falls to -170 points after they pass it and bush signs it. I am confused
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I dont get the market at all. It loses almost 800 points because congress denys the bailout plan. Then today its up 315 points but then falls to -170 points after they pass it and bush signs it. I am confused
This just isn't "Joe Six Pack" selling in his IRA.
What we got is MASSIVE unwinding by hedge funds tied to derivatives market. How far and how long it goes------I have no idea, but anything and everything is being affected.
Unless you have inside info on who's unwinding what and by how much, there is NO WAY this market can be strategically gamed from either the long or short side.
If you insist on playing in this category 5 hurricane, the only thing you can do is buy value and put no time table as to when/if it pays off.
I am as bearish as anyone, and yes, there are some decent companies out there with real earnings and real cash just getting their asses torn open.
GOLD
SYSCO (SYY)
CHART INDUSTRIES (GTLS)
DRYSHIPS (DRYS)
Even though there is serious value in all 4 of the above, they could all be taken down another 50-75% from their present levels. No joke.
Some in here have a lot more experience than I, but I do know a little about trading------and this environment is impossible unless you have serious inside info.
Trading this market is like a football team trying to throw 20 yard down and outs in 175 mph swirling winds.
We'll survive and thrive, though.
.................................
Have a good weekend, everyone. Enjoy the football.
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This just isn't "Joe Six Pack" selling in his IRA.
What we got is MASSIVE unwinding by hedge funds tied to derivatives market. How far and how long it goes------I have no idea, but anything and everything is being affected.
Unless you have inside info on who's unwinding what and by how much, there is NO WAY this market can be strategically gamed from either the long or short side.
If you insist on playing in this category 5 hurricane, the only thing you can do is buy value and put no time table as to when/if it pays off.
I am as bearish as anyone, and yes, there are some decent companies out there with real earnings and real cash just getting their asses torn open.
GOLD
SYSCO (SYY)
CHART INDUSTRIES (GTLS)
DRYSHIPS (DRYS)
Even though there is serious value in all 4 of the above, they could all be taken down another 50-75% from their present levels. No joke.
Some in here have a lot more experience than I, but I do know a little about trading------and this environment is impossible unless you have serious inside info.
Trading this market is like a football team trying to throw 20 yard down and outs in 175 mph swirling winds.
We'll survive and thrive, though.
.................................
Have a good weekend, everyone. Enjoy the football.
So soon DRYS will be able to buy back all of their stock in 1 1/2 years since they'll be at a PE of 1.5. And when its at a PE of 1 it'll take em just a year.
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So soon DRYS will be able to buy back all of their stock in 1 1/2 years since they'll be at a PE of 1.5. And when its at a PE of 1 it'll take em just a year.
The way DRYS and GTLS have been taken apart is staggering.
Obviously, the holy "market" feels that the world economy cannot be helped by the bailout packages.
IMO, the latest bailout package passed in the USA will spring several more bailout packages by all the other countries of any industrial importance, and country to country commerce will ensue. This bailout package just buys the world another 3-5 years, I believe. Companies will continue to gamble on credit and take high risks------that has and will not ever change(d) when the credit/loans are available, regardless of what they blab about crap like transparency and disclosure.
In the next 3-5 years, expect inflation due to the weak dollar, soaring gold prices, soaring oil prices, soaring commodity prices.
Yeah, even bearish ol' me is looking now at DRYS as a longterm hold------the value is staggering. The real question is this, though.....
If DRYS goes from 40ish (present price) to let's say 80ish in 3-5 years, does this doubling of your money buy more than it currently does? I am not sure. 80 dollars in 3-5 years may not be worth more than 40 dollars right now.
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The way DRYS and GTLS have been taken apart is staggering.
Obviously, the holy "market" feels that the world economy cannot be helped by the bailout packages.
IMO, the latest bailout package passed in the USA will spring several more bailout packages by all the other countries of any industrial importance, and country to country commerce will ensue. This bailout package just buys the world another 3-5 years, I believe. Companies will continue to gamble on credit and take high risks------that has and will not ever change(d) when the credit/loans are available, regardless of what they blab about crap like transparency and disclosure.
In the next 3-5 years, expect inflation due to the weak dollar, soaring gold prices, soaring oil prices, soaring commodity prices.
Yeah, even bearish ol' me is looking now at DRYS as a longterm hold------the value is staggering. The real question is this, though.....
If DRYS goes from 40ish (present price) to let's say 80ish in 3-5 years, does this doubling of your money buy more than it currently does? I am not sure. 80 dollars in 3-5 years may not be worth more than 40 dollars right now.
Some in here have a lot more experience than I, but I do know a
little about trading------and this environment is impossible unless you
have serious inside info. ---------- fetal position in the basement has been the best position the last month or so
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Some in here have a lot more experience than I, but I do know a
little about trading------and this environment is impossible unless you
have serious inside info. ---------- fetal position in the basement has been the best position the last month or so
I'm guess we'll see less than 10,000 for the DOW this week or next?
When does the short ban on financials end? I guess we'll see them extend that? If not even more market chaos will ensue.
Coming from a guy who works for a financial institution . . . you'd have to be nuts to be long any Bank that has significant assets invested in the California and Florida markets. Crazy. I see people with supposed good credit defaulting on those loans (FICO 700 and up).
Where does the DOW eventually stop? 9000? or lower?
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A few questions / statements:
I'm guess we'll see less than 10,000 for the DOW this week or next?
When does the short ban on financials end? I guess we'll see them extend that? If not even more market chaos will ensue.
Coming from a guy who works for a financial institution . . . you'd have to be nuts to be long any Bank that has significant assets invested in the California and Florida markets. Crazy. I see people with supposed good credit defaulting on those loans (FICO 700 and up).
Where does the DOW eventually stop? 9000? or lower?
May shock you coming from me, but I believe we have some sort of mularkey, sucker's "rally" before seeing DOW 8000 and NAS 800 early next year in 2009 when reality of lay-offs hits. There is nothing worse for an economy than the unemployed consumer, and that won't really become reality until pink slip time come December-----then you see it in Jan/Fed NFPs.
Reason for a counter-trend rally is that there is so much pessimism, fear (VIX high 40s) and negativity in addition to a technically oversold condition.
The unwinding of derivatives by hedge funds ought to reach "fait de complit" status early this coming week, and then massive short covering could send avarages higher, and media will put touts like Jim Cramer front and center who will lead the cheers.
That's my opinion.
Personally, I am going to basically remain in all cash outisde of quick trades. Am looking to add maybe a few long hauls with nice q-divs (SYY, GTLS, DRYS) and a gold futures position that "should" beat money markets over the next 3-5 years.
Yeah, man, there is some serious value out there right now.
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VH-
May shock you coming from me, but I believe we have some sort of mularkey, sucker's "rally" before seeing DOW 8000 and NAS 800 early next year in 2009 when reality of lay-offs hits. There is nothing worse for an economy than the unemployed consumer, and that won't really become reality until pink slip time come December-----then you see it in Jan/Fed NFPs.
Reason for a counter-trend rally is that there is so much pessimism, fear (VIX high 40s) and negativity in addition to a technically oversold condition.
The unwinding of derivatives by hedge funds ought to reach "fait de complit" status early this coming week, and then massive short covering could send avarages higher, and media will put touts like Jim Cramer front and center who will lead the cheers.
That's my opinion.
Personally, I am going to basically remain in all cash outisde of quick trades. Am looking to add maybe a few long hauls with nice q-divs (SYY, GTLS, DRYS) and a gold futures position that "should" beat money markets over the next 3-5 years.
Yeah, man, there is some serious value out there right now.
Clay you don't think its odd that gold has not made it back anywhere near $1000/oz in the midst of all of this? I read that as very bearish for gold, not bullish
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Clay you don't think its odd that gold has not made it back anywhere near $1000/oz in the midst of all of this? I read that as very bearish for gold, not bullish
I agree that it is technically very bearish for gold on the chart, but then again, it could be an opportunity to get long.
I am looking at this for like a 3-5 year play. In that time, I believe the US dollar will be systematically shellacked in an orchestrated manner by central banks, cause the goal is to have a one currency in NA (USA, Mexico, Canada). This is bullish for gold so long as my conspiracy theory is correct.
There is absolutely no fundamental reason that I can think of whatsoever that calls for a strong dollar in the coming years.
Jax, this may seem crazy, but we could see DOW 15000 in 5 years with such a weak dollar-------but that would be like DOW 7500/8000 in today's terms.
This whole credit fiasco we are experiencing on top of the way it has been handled since last Aug 2007 when subprime broke (bailout after bailout after bailout) makes me think the conspiracy theorists could be right.....one world government, one world currency, one world bank, etc...... Big Brother is indeed watching and getting more and more powerful.
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Yeah, Jax, it is hard to figure.
I agree that it is technically very bearish for gold on the chart, but then again, it could be an opportunity to get long.
I am looking at this for like a 3-5 year play. In that time, I believe the US dollar will be systematically shellacked in an orchestrated manner by central banks, cause the goal is to have a one currency in NA (USA, Mexico, Canada). This is bullish for gold so long as my conspiracy theory is correct.
There is absolutely no fundamental reason that I can think of whatsoever that calls for a strong dollar in the coming years.
Jax, this may seem crazy, but we could see DOW 15000 in 5 years with such a weak dollar-------but that would be like DOW 7500/8000 in today's terms.
This whole credit fiasco we are experiencing on top of the way it has been handled since last Aug 2007 when subprime broke (bailout after bailout after bailout) makes me think the conspiracy theorists could be right.....one world government, one world currency, one world bank, etc...... Big Brother is indeed watching and getting more and more powerful.
Funny how in the matter of 3 months the discussion has gone from oversupply to demand destruction and counterparty failure.
No doubt that earnings come down next year on the shipping side, DRYS has plenty of big fat juicy charters coming off over the next few months that will reset much lower, but even given those resets off TC, earnings and PE still around a forward 3 for 2009. If you add the OR contribution, earnings overall will still be around 15 next year based on my estimates.
I hope George holds the assets until next year and wait to see what the market does.
CC, I thought we would see under 10k longer term but seeing how the credit market is frozen and it is trickling to other areas of the market..meaning on friday California needs 7B for general expenses (not a deficit loan, just an operational cash flow loan) I have to think it wont be the first time this comes up and other companies and states will also come knocking which means more problems.
And to think this all happened due to overleverage..now nobody wants to lend and nobody wants to take the risk.
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VH2,
Funny how in the matter of 3 months the discussion has gone from oversupply to demand destruction and counterparty failure.
No doubt that earnings come down next year on the shipping side, DRYS has plenty of big fat juicy charters coming off over the next few months that will reset much lower, but even given those resets off TC, earnings and PE still around a forward 3 for 2009. If you add the OR contribution, earnings overall will still be around 15 next year based on my estimates.
I hope George holds the assets until next year and wait to see what the market does.
CC, I thought we would see under 10k longer term but seeing how the credit market is frozen and it is trickling to other areas of the market..meaning on friday California needs 7B for general expenses (not a deficit loan, just an operational cash flow loan) I have to think it wont be the first time this comes up and other companies and states will also come knocking which means more problems.
And to think this all happened due to overleverage..now nobody wants to lend and nobody wants to take the risk.
BRKB has a P/E of .64... if anyone is coming out of this meltdown better off it will be WB. He basically told GS execs what they could and could not do with their own stock holdings as part of his deal...
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DRYS has a P/E of 1.5 or so.
BRKB has a P/E of .64... if anyone is coming out of this meltdown better off it will be WB. He basically told GS execs what they could and could not do with their own stock holdings as part of his deal...
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