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October Stock Talk V

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Posted: #51
No joke here, guys...........
 
"Buenos Aires" is the next "Paris, France."
 
And Brazil is going to be the real deal as far as investment, business is concerned whenever/"if ever" the world comes out of this depression.
 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #52
CC

i dont know chit about brazil other than they play soccer, girls wear thongs and leandro barbosa. why are they gonna be ahead when the dust settles ??? do tell
 
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Posted: #53
Quote Originally Posted by wallstreetcappers:

Koaj,

The USD has been on fire, I noticed the chart yesterday, a move from 60 cents and change vs the Euro up to almost 80 cents.

I think it hits par and higher, and it is partly why there is pressure on our markets. The holders of our stocks are not getting an extra bargain and are probably selling seeing the exchange rate dropping.

Also our exchange rate going up is negative for exports and GDP.

Wallstreet, tremendous profits can be made in FOREX right now, I made a nice killing yesterday on USD/CAD, the USD is just KILLING every currency on the board right now. 

 
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Posted: #54
I want to add that the USD staying high is the only thing keeping this economy afloat, the fed will do everything they can to prop up the buck, if the dollar goes down the toilet, we're all fucked
 
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Posted: #55
WLD-
 
"MASSIVE" natural resource base.
 
Also (and yes, evryone in here will tell me I'm a farking dumba--s------which is even more why it will work), my gut tells me that the hay-days of the USA are caput.  Therefore, who between the Atlantic and Pacific will become the "superpower?"  Yep, South America-----Argentina and Brazil.
 
When does all this happen?  I have no idea, but I can pretty much promise you that the USA will end up taking a back-seat to Brazil and Argentina as the 21st century unfolds.
 
Covers Linesmen
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Posted: #56
iceman,

I made a comment to you a while ago about the Forex and that my view is that the USD goes HIGHER against the Euro longer term, back to par or better.

The FED is slowing the print machine plus the US is ahead of the world as to the recession, so the rest of the world will start to crack just as the US has and we will rebound and start to improve BEFORE Europe etc do, so the value would be to go LONG the USD if I were making a trade..and not for a few pips, but for a longer term hold..like a year or longer.  
 
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Posted: #57

 CC

 I think you might want to read Argentinian economic history. The saying "Argentina will be a future power, and always will be" is not a truism for nothing.They have wonderful resources and an absolutely abysmal economic history.

  Wall: The USD is being propped up on the theory that the rest of the world is behind us in pain and hence the consequences are lagging.That much I get. But the fact is the US presses are own overload, the cheap dollar has been the chief (and almost only) saving grace for our trade, allowing our companies to profit from exports.That game is over.

  So while I understand your point, given the enormity of the debts incurred already and there are plenty more to come (Freddie and Fannie are hardly out of the woods:in fact, they are going deeper in as housing is hardly going to come back when another million people lose their jobs), I do not see how the massive printing of greenbacks results in a higher USD.

 But that is just me.

 
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Posted: #58
PS

 CC I think Brazil is the better bet.And yeah their economic history is spotted at best.They could still fall for a Hugo Chavez style stupidity regarding oil etc. But I think they have seen the destruction he has caused, and if oil stays low, Hugo will soon be either in exile or 6 feet under.

 
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Posted: #59
Vermeer,

My comment is relative to the LAST eight years. I think the printing presses will slow relative to the last 8 years AND the world economy dragging behind, both forces should bring the USD back near PAR over the long run.

I dont think the recession will smack every economy, I actually think India/China etc will keep going forward due to their revolution so to speak.
 
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Posted: #60

 OK got it Wall...

 
Covers Rehab
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Posted: #61
Sold my S&P puts today for a nice profit and dumped half the oney into POT calls.  Earnings are tomorrow and I feel the sky is falling train is just too full.  Any good news and this contrarian play runs hard to the upside.
 
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Posted: #62
Wall, CC, KOAJ et al:

 What are the top three metrics (God I hate that term) you use in looking at a long term holding (not a trade)? ROE? Shareholder equity per share? P/E etc etc?

 Just curious. I have my own preferences, just wondering if they match up at all...

 
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Posted: #63
PS

 Just for the record, I do not think the market has come close to factoring in dismal earnings  for the next 12-16 months.

Do you agree? Or am I overly pessimistic? I think we are still looking at expensive valuations...
 
Legend
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Posted: #64
Here comes the late day further selloff?
 
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Posted: #65
C at $12.56...

I do believe CC predicted this level back in the spring.(Never did find that original debate post but recall under $13 )



 
 
Legend
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Posted: #66
She'll probably fall to -400 or more and then recover some.  Always seems to selloff between 2:45 and 3:45 or so.
 
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Posted: #67
On another note, though, this on Argentina from the WSJ...

Among emerging market investors Argentina is now considered one of the worst places on the planet to put your money. Now that commodity prices are cooling and the global economy is slowing, Mrs. Kirchner is facing a $10 billion shortfall in what is due on government debt by the end of 2009. Where else to turn but to the resources of the private sector? Argentina, if little else, serves as a cautionary tale on how to ruin an economy.
 
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Posted: #68
Quote Originally Posted by Vermeer:

On another note, though, this on Argentina from the WSJ...

Among emerging market investors Argentina is now considered one of the worst places on the planet to put your money. Now that commodity prices are cooling and the global economy is slowing, Mrs. Kirchner is facing a $10 billion shortfall in what is due on government debt by the end of 2009. Where else to turn but to the resources of the private sector? Argentina, if little else, serves as a cautionary tale on how to ruin an economy.

This is the same economy that experienced > 1,000% annual inflation as recently as 7 years ago, akin to an African dictatorship.  Yes, that means you Mr. Mugabe.   

Those who repeat the flawed actions of the past are doomed for future failure. 

 
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Posted: #69
very interesting read about the current crisis. The paper is called working paper 666 by the Minnesota Feds
 
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Posted: #70
basically the paper is debunking the information the public is telling us

Myths about the financial crisis:

1. Bank lending to nonfinancial corporations and individuals has declined sharply.
2. Interbank lending is essentially nonexistent.
3. Commercial paper issuance by nonfinancial corporations has declined sharply and rates have risen to unprecedented levels.
4. Banks play a large role in channeling funds from savers to borrowers.
 
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Posted: #71
We have not seen the bottom yet. We have not even tested 2002 - 2003 lows.

Dow 5,000 - 7,000 in December.

BTW.

SHORT    THO      !!!!!!!!
 
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Posted: #72
And when I say Dow 5,000 - 7,000 in December, I mean that which I said exactly.

It will fluctuate in between 5,000 and 7,000 in the month of December 2008.
 
Legend
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Posted: #73
Quote Originally Posted by Aeternus2006W:

We have not seen the bottom yet. We have not even tested 2002 - 2003 lows.

Dow 5,000 - 7,000 in December.

BTW.

SHORT    THO      !!!!!!!!


Not really true.  Dow never fell below 7K in 2002-2003.  Closing low was around 7.5.  It's basically fallen to those levels and that's before inflation.  Inflation-adjusted we are way lower now than we were then.  Haven't been consistently under 8,000 since 1997.
 
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Posted: #74
very interesting triangle on the S&P chart that is squeezing towards resolution VERY soon......whichever way it breaks, it will be a very powerful move.  easily the high to mid 700's if down and 1000+ if up
 
 
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Posted: #75
Vermeer-
 
For "long haul" investing, which in today's violently volatile world, 5 years to me is like 50 years was back in the 50s.
 
Anyway, 3 top criteria:
 
1) Trailing yearly PE to last 5 year earnings growth rate.
2) Dividend yield.
3) Subjective here----how "my" economic forecast will affect the ticker symbol's business for the next 5 years.
 
FTR, Vermeer, I only have 2 long haul investments currently (SYY-26.25 bought early this month and GTLS-22.25 also early this month).  As you know, both have been blasted since those early buys, and I am not looking to add any time soon.  Obviously, I jumped the gun. 
 
For long hauls, sometimes I'll write calls against them in expiration month.  Did that in Oct for both SYY and GTLS, but haven't done anything as far as November.
 
Also, am looking to build up some long haul holdings in gold bullion, cause the inflation boogyman is going to get mean come 2010 due to all these stupid bailout packages and the paper money printing press just running amok.
 
Biggest long haul holding is cash, which I use to just do strictly quick, very quick, short term trades usually lasting no longer than 2-3 days tops----usually try to get out in one day, cause going overnight (long or short) in today's world doesn't allow me to sleep for more than a few minutes at a time----world is that farking crazy.
 
-------------------------------------------------
 
Yeah, I did call C to go 10-12ish back around I think late January 2008 in one of "boiler room's" threads.  What happened to "boiler room?"
 
And, of course, I never opened the Citigroup short back when it was in the high 20s cause I was terrified of getting crushed with all these gd mf-ing bailout packages and was way too near-sighted for my own good.  Nothing wrong with "long haul" short positions, but I farked up and am pretty pissed off about my reluctance when I made the gd call.  I got absolutely run over twice ('97 Asian Tiger and '98 Russian Debt) with heavy short positions in the face of bailout packages, and I am not ashamed to admit that being short for anything more than a quick trade absolutely terrifies me even to this day in the most hideous economy we have ever seen since early 1930s.
 
'97 and '98 bailout packages 'bout killed me.
 
And yes, Brazil is better than Argentina for 21st century, but Argentina is rising.  One thing we all know-----the USA's days of dominance are farking caput----and I don't give a damn what old man Buffett is spouting for the media.
 
Sorry to ramble, but I think all questions have been answered.
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