Raining pips April edition

Well instead of closing my position last night, Wall and Buck inspired me to be sort of a warrior and tough it out. I'm in the red around 50 but my conviction is so strong that it's going south so long story short i held my position. I'm seeing a real strong signal that the downward push is impending. Just my opinion but I am looking at price action and it looks dead exhausted in its decent day rally. You guys holding any?

Bobby,

I have my LB short, and I think that the Greek debt is going to get downgraded more. I would be patient and know it is going to work, including averaging up.

Keep ib mind that we are also facing a strong risk move with the US markets in party mode.

Looks like the 10th announcement of Greece agreeing to a package, I wonder if this is the last.

She is starting to fall for you bobby, did you add any when it was moving up?

The reality is this will cost a TON of dough, might not work and there are several more behind Greece in the same position they are.

SHRT AUD...9304

hey wall...nope, been motionless like a statue staying put. It's been an incredible experience as it's not my style to keep a position this "deep" but yes, it's falling now and what seems to be a couple of days of decent rally is now over although technically, I still am not seeing the confirmation I need. Regardless, I'm staying put.

I saw your Greece announcement bit, lol

https://yfrog.com/5faudsellg

Heres that AUD chart...been short for a bit but i like it looks to be getting weaker...i like these signals ...i didnt draw lines on this chart but it has closed above the top trend line....hope it works out...put a 45 pip limit on it..wish me luck

buck,

Ive noticed that too..

Normally the AU is in front of the risk move but not so much this trip.

The only risk is they keep punching against this .9350 area.

If she pushes through .94 (the high in Nov of 09) then it will be a huge breakout and it would move back to the .97 area.

You just need risk on to take a nap for a day or two..

looking at aud/usd when gold was @1170 on 4/12 aud had a high of 9380 wouldnt it make sense for it too at least reach that price again today ?  gold is @ 1177 currently and with all the government debt problems i think the gold bugs will keep these prices up. 

AUD

Nice to go into the weekend with no positions...missed a good sell in JPY shouldve taken the laptop today...heres the JPY chart..

 

https://yfrog.com/50jpyjpyg

buck,

I am actually a little shocked at the strength of the AU, LB and EU today..the SPX Vix is heating up yet they arent really buying the USD as much..probably thinking this is not going to continue more than a day or so and this move isnt a trend changer.

Since the FED keeps supporting the markets, even in the face of some pretty bad stuff, the downward pressure evaporates and we gain most if not all of it back in a session or two.

I expected more of a drop off that GDP miss too..

Sorry that last chart was AUD....heres JPY chart

https://yfrog.com/0ujjjjjmg

 

 

Yeah IDK Wall hard to really judge whats happening and what should be happening...thats why i just trade the chart..ill jump in on a news move but for the most part just give me my tech indies and ill be fine

I had a pretty good week again somehow managed to not get stuck in a trade this week..one more week and me and the fam are off to Florida....doing the DISNEY trip also hope to see a space launch[thats for me not the kids]...

You guys holding any trades through the weekend?

Good luck with those spring break crowds down there.

I still have my Lb.yen short..its in the green but not by much. I closed my US.CD short last night at 1.020 which after another average up made me about 100 pips..closer to 120, but that one was a tough nut and not the kind of trades I like to have...

I dont like sitting in trades either but you have to in this game....those are good trades though...you made 100 pips on what 3-4 lots?So were talking about 300-400 pips right??

No, I made 40 pips on 3 lots..so 120 in total.

Still not bad Wall...in a standard account thats a good weeks work after taxes

I'm happy for you guys. A positive week is always good. I am hanging on to dear life and have decided to keep my position. Right now, I'm about -120 in the hole and iffy on the gap open but I'm that the third and final long day caps off this rally. I think this coming week my risk approach will be decided by the gap depending on where price decides to open on Sunday. Looking at my margin, it still looks healthy but with this open trade, it pretty much brings my whole week's gain to about $100 Some joke huh

Well what you/we need is a snag in the Greece situation. I still firmly think that regardless of Greece that the EUR is going lower..

Youll be OK Bob...whats you avg price?

Hey buck..not sure i follow, avg price in my trade or where do i see price averaging per MA? Well, as I mentioned i'm in the hole pretty deep about 130 points. My margin's still looking healthy and I don't think I'll get a call. I'll know before then that my idea's wrong. It just kinda sucks and the gap open on Sunday is messing me up in the head. Please pray for my trade lol

Bobby,

He was meaning what is your average on the position? So what is your short sell price on the short?

You have good reason to be worried, especially if you are tight to the margin call level..I would be too.

hey guys whats a good basis for # of lots to open a position. im in a mini account with 7G's in it. I think 5 lots to open a position is a good basis. 1 lot per 1400 in cash seems pretty safe in a mini. wondering what ur thoughts on this are. i think the only way to get a call with that would be if i had 2 positions open at the same time that went south badly. I just added some funds to it yesterday, wanted to get my feet wet before i added more cash. did pretty damn well with the money i started with so more dry powder will only help.

Pap i wouldnt start with more than 3 lots...but thats me and how i trade...with 5 lots if you hold a position and it turns on you and you average with 5 lots you gonna have 10 lots..from that point you really couldnt add again and be safe margin wise...at least i wouldnt feel safe doing so..with 3 lots you could average 3 times giving you at least 500 pips wiggle room and only have 12 lots...then again any other trader would tell you not using stopsWILL NEVER WORK..i disagree but if you handcuff yourself margin wise youre asking fot it

I still trade starting with two lots again though thats me...i also dont add until im 100 down or more depending on the chart...last week i was willing to let EU/JPY go almost 200 b4 i wouldve even touched it again but it fell through the floor first...S/R and pivots are key if you wanna average positions

If you start with 2 or 3 lots youre still looking at good profit on your trades..nothing wrong getting 5% +a week..

hey guys,

Wall thanks for the clarification. I shorted @3191.