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All-Star
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Posted: #26
Dow 4800 by EOY '10. 
 
Covers Linesmen
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Posted: #27
Quote Originally Posted by claycourtlesson:

Dow 4800 by EOY '10. 


Wanna place a friendly wager on that?

FED raising the discount rate today should cool things off a bit though.
 
Veteran
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Posted: #28
What do you project Wall? Perhaps we all take a stab, and make it EOY  Dow or S&P....will mull it over.

I think it is going to be a choppy choppy ride. A huge list of things lead me to believe a real contraction, but not sure what percentage.
 
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Posted: #29
Quote Originally Posted by Vermeer:

What do you project Wall? Perhaps we all take a stab, and make it EOY  Dow or S&P....will mull it over.

I think it is going to be a choppy choppy ride. A huge list of things lead me to believe a real contraction, but not sure what percentage.


I like that idea..

How about we decide by next week?

DOW and SPX...closing numbers for the year.


 
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Posted: #30
Funny,

The FED is so worried about the markets that they have to come out and make a statement about keeping rates low for a very long time.


 
Captain
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Posted: #31
Well rightfully so, the markets do dictate the mentality of this country alot more than other issues. If people would just stop pannicking and start putting their money back to work into the market, we would steadily climb despite all these negatives. The #1 frustrating part of the overall investing stigma is the nervousness people have to investing. Listen up folks, fucking sack up and start investing you pussies ! The market goes up and the market goes down. Get over it already !
 
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Posted: #32
Uh yeah well if you lose 15 trillion, you should be nervous...about being hanged or shot.
 
Captain
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Posted: #33
Both the Dow and S&P finish up this year. I will take the action on this. I've got a great pulse on some of the most influential PM's around and all their indicators are buys right now. For example if boys at AllianceBernstein, Dodge & Cox, and Wellington are loading up right now, u'd best be buying. And whoever said to short Ford is out of their mind. Alliance just tacked on 80mm shares in Q4, not to mention at least another 14mm already this quarter. Coupled with this Toyota gaffe, their Q1 '10 earnings are going to crush. What makes you think Ford would fall from these levels?
 
Prospect
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Posted: #34
Quote Originally Posted by tigers56:

sasquatches1, good to see you are on the right side of the trade. Good money made this week. Alot of distribution. I thought we might bounce a little last week but didn't happen. We are ST oversold so wouldn't be surprised to see some upside retacement. $INDU is setting on support. Gap at 1069 on the S&P could get closed Monday A.M. before we go higher. I'm looking for the S&P to possibly retrace to 1110-1120 area before the selling continues. May add some additional shorts if that area is hit.
S&P hit my target Friday with an intraday high of 1112. I expect the selling to resume next week. Wave three dead ahead.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #35
Quote Originally Posted by tigers56:

sasquatches1, good to see you are on the right side of the trade. Good money made this week. Alot of distribution. I thought we might bounce a little last week but didn't happen. We are ST oversold so wouldn't be surprised to see some upside retacement. $INDU is setting on support. Gap at 1069 on the S&P could get closed Monday A.M. before we go higher. I'm looking for the S&P to possibly retrace to 1110-1120 area before the selling continues. May add some additional shorts if that area is hit.
S&P hit my target Friday with an intraday high of 1112. I expect the selling to resume next week. Wave three dead ahead.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #36
Quote Originally Posted by gfinger:

Both the Dow and S&P finish up this year. I will take the action on this. I've got a great pulse on some of the most influential PM's around and all their indicators are buys right now. For example if boys at AllianceBernstein, Dodge & Cox, and Wellington are loading up right now, u'd best be buying. And whoever said to short Ford is out of their mind. Alliance just tacked on 80mm shares in Q4, not to mention at least another 14mm already this quarter. Coupled with this Toyota gaffe, their Q1 '10 earnings are going to crush. What makes you think Ford would fall from these levels?
gfinger... I never advised anyone to short Ford. All I said was that I was shorting Ford. I'm short at $11.81 so I'm in the black. Ford will be sub $10.00 a share shortly. there are a ton of gaps below this price. I will agree they are in a good position with the things you mention and I respect the fact that they didn't take bailout money.
 
MVP
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Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by gfinger:

Well rightfully so, the markets do dictate the mentality of this country alot more than other issues. If people would just stop pannicking and start putting their money back to work into the market, we would steadily climb despite all these negatives. The #1 frustrating part of the overall investing stigma is the nervousness people have to investing. Listen up folks, fucking sack up and start investing you pussies ! The market goes up and the market goes down. Get over it already !




yea everything goes up so long as people have money to throw away,,,,,,,what happens when the people with the money (boomers) start looking to retire, taking profits, and selling

i agree that the market ends up on the year, but i also think we see triple digit oil again,,,,,,,,more usd devaluation
 
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Posted: #38
Gfinger, are you a broker??? 

"Once more over the top" was considered "sacking up" in World War I and it did not work out very well for those that followed that advice.Heroic, but ultimately, pure folly.

 One wonders how may times  shysters can pump and dump the American and world economies.One would think that after the internet bubble, the telcomm bust, the real estate fraud, and the ongoing stench of derivatives, even the most macho personality might pause (unless he himself is the tub thumper for yet another version of the con.)

  In China, so often recently cited approvingly as a role model for hapless Americans, quite a few of the major players in this latest federal defalcation would have been summarily executed.They do execute white collar criminals in China with alarming frequency, but it does seem to concentrate the minds of those involved.

 Robert Rubin, Lloyd Blankfein Timmy Geithner and Paulson, Ben Bernanke and many other leading actors of the ongoing swindle must say a silent prayer nightly thanking God they do not work in China.

    The market's volatility and propensity for "going up and down" has radically increased in volume of losses and in frequency of occurrence. I am not sure anyone should " just get over " the latest and most brazen theft from the U.S. Treasury.

 At least not until those who perpetrated it are wearing orange jump suits and not Armanis.
 
 
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Posted: #39
Quote Originally Posted by tigers56:

S&P hit my target Friday with an intraday high of 1112. I expect the selling to resume next week. Wave three dead ahead.

I agree, we're back into resistance territory.  1120 S&P, 10500 DOW, I doubt we break.  
 
Captain
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Posted: #40
Quote Originally Posted by Vermeer:

Gfinger, are you a broker??? 

"Once more over the top" was considered "sacking up" in World War I and it did not work out very well for those that followed that advice.Heroic, but ultimately, pure folly.

 One wonders how may times  shysters can pump and dump the American and world economies.One would think that after the internet bubble, the telcomm bust, the real estate fraud, and the ongoing stench of derivatives, even the most macho personality might pause (unless he himself is the tub thumper for yet another version of the con.)

  In China, so often recently cited approvingly as a role model for hapless Americans, quite a few of the major players in this latest federal defalcation would have been summarily executed.They do execute white collar criminals in China with alarming frequency, but it does seem to concentrate the minds of those involved.

 Robert Rubin, Lloyd Blankfein Timmy Geithner and Paulson, Ben Bernanke and many other leading actors of the ongoing swindle must say a silent prayer nightly thanking God they do not work in China.

    The market's volatility and propensity for "going up and down" has radically increased in volume of losses and in frequency of occurrence. I am not sure anyone should " just get over " the latest and most brazen theft from the U.S. Treasury.

 At least not until those who perpetrated it are wearing orange jump suits and not Armanis.
 


No, not a broker, I can't believe they still exist to be honest. I work on the buy-side for a private wealth management shop in Chicago.
 
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Posted: #41
Quote Originally Posted by tigers56:

gfinger... I never advised anyone to short Ford. All I said was that I was shorting Ford. I'm short at $11.81 so I'm in the black. Ford will be sub $10.00 a share shortly. there are a ton of gaps below this price. I will agree they are in a good position with the things you mention and I respect the fact that they didn't take bailout money.


Did you see the P/C ratio at 3.229 in favor of the puts today? The $10 - Jan '11 showing volume of 131,148 put contracts. Pretty crazy.
 
Covers Linesmen
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Posted: #42
Quote Originally Posted by gfinger:



No, not a broker, I can't believe they still exist to be honest. I work on the buy-side for a private wealth management shop in Chicago.


So you are a trader for a private firm/hedge fund/mutual fund?

Interesting..what do you do specifically?


 
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Posted: #43
Human traders are going the way of the full service broker...algorithms are so much faster, and cheaper to house.

It will be a curious period to watch, for certain.


 
Captain
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Posted: #44
Quote Originally Posted by claycourtlesson:

Dow 4800 by EOY '10. 



 
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Posted: #45
I think we could see 6-7,000 but not by end of year..the low comes in next year, when it is too apparent the crackup is still in place.

I think the Fed/Goldman charade works past EOY...may even be up 8% from Jan levels on Dow.Think gold flatlines, remains around same levels as of now. 
 
 
Captain
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Posted: #46
Tigers56, you might wanna cover that short you have on Ford if you haven't done so yet. They broke past their Jan 11, 2010 high and are now hitting levels not seen since March 2005. Today, 267K call contracts, making up 83% of the total activity. That action included the purchase of 20.75K Jan 15 calls at 87 cents each (tied to shares on a 35 delta), Mar 12 - 13 call spreads, bot at 41 cents, 4745X, and a Mar 12 - April 13 (1X2) call ratio spread, bot at 10 cents, 5000X. Their April earnings release will be very nice.
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