today the day oil falls below 30.00

It actually did crack $30 yesterday at $29.90, but it was only for a few seconds. Buyers came in and bought heavy and brought it over $31 a barrel this morning in anticipation of the EIA oil supply report.

Last week there was a 6 million barrel draw, but it was during Christmas driving week. Today, the supply was expected to increase by 2.5 million barrels. It came in at like +0.5 million barrels, but the market didn't like the draw, and took it back down to around $30.30-$30.50 which held on pretty strong throughout the day.

Oil is finding plenty of buyers at the $30 level, but I'm skeptical. In my opinion, it has to drop to between $26-28 a barrel before it rebounds hard.

But that's just me. I'm no oil expert. I just have been following oil and natural gas closely for the past year. Lost my @ss, but learned a lot along the way.  

I hate how the price of oil is so fake. The March contract rollover is this week, so the price is already beginning to reflect the March contract on Monday.

So oil closed at $29 something on Friday. Due to the rollover, the price rolled back over $30 again, but it's currently down again.

So basically, the price of oil is going to be higher than it was on Friday, but if you had an equity that invests in oil, you would be down if it opened right now.

This is a result of contango that a lot of people don't understand. I didn't when I first invested in commodities last winter.

So those that invested in oil at $50 a barrel like I did won't be breaking even if it reaches $50 a barrel again. Commodities are generally meant for swing trading only and not long-term holds.

Sucks for people that want to sit on 30 a barrel and wait for it to go back up. Could take months, could take years, and the longer you hold it the more "rake" they take out of it.

Well it looks like oil bounced off the $27.50 area (the top end of my $26-28 estimate from 10 days ago).

It just crossed over $31 a barrel, and this could be confirmation of a run.

I've become a technical trader over the past year, and I'm seeing some resistance at $33 and $35 a barrel.

If this continues to run, I don't see it going any higher than 35. If it breaks 35 though, it could go wayyyyy higher.