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USD/JPY First Quarter

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Posted: #626
140 Eu/Yen?

So what was said?
 
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Posted: #627
Sorry, I was busy watching my 3rd trade of the week blow up. 

I am out and done for the week with a -70 pip loss. 

Need to step back. 

But no, Drahgi was talking about the EUR/USD
and how deflation was a growing concern etc etc. 

Zero H quipped that they are asking China to stop purchasing EUR. 

https://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/03/13/uk-ecb-draghi-idUKBREA2C1R720140313
 
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Posted: #628
Interesting..and he is right, same goes for the LB..

The risk is that with no growth and a hyper strong currency it can do what happened in Japan...long long span of no growth.

I seriously had and have no idea why the EU is over 1.30 vs the USD, I dont get it personally. I think parity is much more accurate as the USD has a MUCH lower probability of long term deflation since our FED is much more active in the markets and concerned about perception than the EU or England seems to be.
 
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Posted: #629
Wow...I dont even wanna think how much I cost myself bailing on that trade...I settled for 32 pips and had 4 lots...lol....OMG
I never added to Eu/Jpy either I could be up over 600 pips in 24 hrs
 
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Posted: #630
Quote Originally Posted by bucknuts:

Wow...I dont even wanna think how much I cost myself bailing on that trade...I settled for 32 pips and had 4 lots...lol....OMG
I never added to Eu/Jpy either I could be up over 600 pips in 24 hrs

Yeah no kidding, I was wading in on fractional lots so I am still down on this trade. What I am thinking is the battle really is monday with that ref vote..so I dont imagine that they are going to want to hold risk into the weekend more than likely..so I am waiting it out.


 
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Posted: #631
I copied this from the news function on FXDD...it is interesting-

The FT reports currency stategists saying it is 'very likely' that the People's Bank of China (PBOC) is helping to drive up the ever-appreciating euro

They ask ?have reserve managers at the People's Bank of China been switching some of these dollars into euro - and does this explain the relentless rise in the euro dollar rate? At this point, the argument becomes speculative.?

Valentin Marinov, a strategist at Citigroup says the PBOC is accumulating euros. He says:

1. A divergence between the onshore and offshore renminbi rates can be used as a rough proxy for PBOC intervention in the market and is generally matched by a build-up in reserves.

2. Reserve growth has generally been correlated in recent years with euro strength against the dollar.

3. The recent growth in China's reserves has not been matched by an increase in its holdings of US Treasuries, as far as we can tell from the TIC data published by the US government.

Others disagree.

 
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Posted: #632
Quote Originally Posted by wallstreetcappers:

Interesting..and he is right, same goes for the LB..

The risk is that with no growth and a hyper strong currency it can do what happened in Japan...long long span of no growth.

I seriously had and have no idea why the EU is over 1.30 vs the USD, I dont get it personally. I think parity is much more accurate as the USD has a MUCH lower probability of long term deflation since our FED is much more active in the markets and concerned about perception than the EU or England seems to be.

Wall we have been thinking this for a few years..i have a pic on my phone from July 2012 that is the cover of Barrons and its $1=1Eu
I will hold my Eu/Jpy through the weekend hopefully Monday that vote pushes these even lower..
Nice job holding that trade make those MF'ers pay

 
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Posted: #633
Quote Originally Posted by bucknuts:


Wall we have been thinking this for a few years..i have a pic on my phone from July 2012 that is the cover of Barrons and its $1=1Eu
I will hold my Eu/Jpy through the weekend hopefully Monday that vote pushes these even lower..
Nice job holding that trade make those MF'ers pay



Finally green, its been a LONG LONG trade.. I am considering covering it up and getting out now that I am profitable.
 
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Posted: #634
I took it when it was offered...24 hrs woulda made a huge difference for me though
had I only been in one trade I could've worked it better and held longer.News kinda tangled me up there for a min.I cant blame ya for bailing with profit sitting on the sidelines waiting costs money
 
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Posted: #635
Wall looking at longer period charts (daily/monthly) I still think 166 is coming this is the area I was target originally...no real solid support until 164..thoughts on these charts?
 
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Posted: #636
Quote Originally Posted by bucknuts:

Wall looking at longer period charts (daily/monthly) I still think 166 is coming this is the area I was target originally...no real solid support until 164..thoughts on these charts?

I didnt cover yet and it has moved up as I knew it would..so profit reduced and still holding.

To me the chart might be right, it might not..what matters is the drivers of the news..what happens with this monday vote, does everything get worked out over the weekend or does Russia push forward?

If they work something out, risk will be back on and these yen trades will get smoked, if Russia does not back down and goes forward, yeah we see 166 and probably even lower.

Thats how I see it.
 
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Posted: #637
Yeah not sure what I was thinking..the trend the last forever is they reverse these risk down moves into the open, I guess I was hoping more fear would come in and nobody wants to hold into the weekend.

So far a near 50 pip reversal on the pair and gains gone but I am not giving up yet, I dont see how barring some news that anyone would want to be long into the weekend.

US markets quickly moved up, they werent red more than 2 minutes.
 
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Posted: #638
True..
This bounce is comical though..still cant believe I sat on this EU/JPY trade and bailed when I did on the other..I couldn't have worked these trades any worse if I tried
I am going to punish myself at the gym tonight
 
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Posted: #639
Quote Originally Posted by bucknuts:

True..
This bounce is comical though..still cant believe I sat on this EU/JPY trade and bailed when I did on the other..I couldn't have worked these trades any worse if I tried
I am going to punish myself at the gym tonight

So you are flat or did you go back in?
 
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Posted: #640
And a profit is a loss again, nothing like a 80 pip move against you in 30 minutes time.


 
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Posted: #641
Still short EU/JPY just one lot from first sell
I was really expecting them to test 144 a bit harder a few days ago
 
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Posted: #642
Well this strength shows that the risk crowd is just chomping at anything to buy long.

Nothing I've seen to warrant a 100 pip move like this..the Michigan numbers were bad, nothing else is out there that I see.
 
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Posted: #643
Sad part is both those trades will play out the way I wanted.Though it was news and not chart driven..I called out 144 two weeks ago for a sell and just got caught in a scalp after already making profit on the pair..

I worked the LB trade fine until I took profit..the entry was poor in hindsight but chart wise it was what I look for and it is currently near levels we were looking for..its bouncing now but I still think they go lower

I
 
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Posted: #644



Im holding thru weekend
 
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Posted: #645
Well that is a big risk, but knowing my stupid self I will also hold over the weekend.

My breakeven is about 168.40 it seems..including the big fat multi week vig I am sitting on.
 
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Posted: #646
Yeah thats rough..a bigger add near the high woulda been nice

Scalpers paradise today...OH MY
 
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Posted: #647
Quote Originally Posted by bucknuts:

Yeah thats rough..a bigger add near the high woulda been nice

Scalpers paradise today...OH MY

Yes that is saying it lightly..

A 100 pip reversal twice in those pairs.. LB went from 168 to 169 back to almost 168 and moving back up again.

I was doing some house stuff, probably should have watched closer and closed it on that low to enter it again when they move it up.
 
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Posted: #648
And another 50 pip spike...

Sheesh..
 
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Posted: #649
A few words from a Russian official and they pump risk and pop the anti risk trades..
 
 
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Posted: #650
This is a bit ridiculous no?
Couldn't help myself. 

I went long @ 102.40

I will probably regret it, but I am hoping this gets pumped up before close. 
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