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#1
Underdog wins
Barberena +250 (fought an opponent that had little experience in the cage) Not a good bet on Barberena unless I saw him use that sort of choke previous match. Exposed flaws in Sage defense and fight iq. The guy gave up.
Diego ferreira +220 (Had this match up 60 percent for his opponent, too evenly matched on paper).
Ben Rothwell +140 (had real hype, his striking has some flaws, he makes it up with his push forward pace and strong chin, strong head crank. Overeem (good opponent) has been looking good so far and should be able to crack Ben as long as he avoids his chokes)
Reis +200 His physical strength plus grappling is impossible for him to lose unless w/ very talented grappler his size. Not surprised if he test postive for PED.
Trap betting spots
Bader +250 (the line was accurate overhyped him, AJ had great grappling)
Sullivan +110 (unaccurate line should be +150, he was outclassed grappling and had major flaw in head positioning)
Sage -300 (line could of been -140 sage, more risk than the line shows)
Good bets
Rivera
Saffadiene
Rafael
Reis
Alexander
Rothwell
First 3 negative odds, bottom 3 positive odds. All about the same chance to win. Few other bets were okay but not as safe as these bets.
Notes
Wrestling and BJJ at high levels will win matches a lot of the time against lesser wrestlers especially if they are good at getting takedowns. Does not work well against those that are heavy handed like AJ unless you have superior wrestling like cormier did, strong chin and mentality.
More technical striking, timing, range of attack, closing the gap, fluid footwork wins matches easier (most like this style are more evasive and coast to win), exception are those with heavy shots that mixes them in with technical strikes can be problematic.
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