Bellator 139 & UFC UFN 70 Plays

Lorenz Larkin and Santiago Ponzinibbio both like to stand and strike so I expect this to be a predominantly stand up fight. After studying footage of both guys there’s no doubt that Larkin is a significantly better striker and since this fight is most likely to be contested standing up, I have to bet on Larkin to win.

Ponzinibbio has been known to try and take guys down in the past, but he doesn’t have very good takedowns and Larkin has shown good takedown defence throughout his career. This is backed up by the stats where Ponzinibbio has only managed to successfully complete 33% of all takedown attempts, where as Larkin has successfully stuffed 76% of all takedowns. It’s also worth noting that Larkin has competed at Middleweight for the majority of his career. This fight is at Welterweight, which means Larkin’s takedown defence should be even better against Ponzinibbio, because Ponzinibbio will be much smaller than the guys Larkin is used to fighting.

I believe that Santiago Ponzinibbio only has a puncher’s chance of winning this fight and whilst Lorenz Larkin was knocked out by Costas Philippou, he actually has a very good chin. This is backed up by the fact that he has only been finished once in his 19 fight career.

Lorenz Larkin looked great in his last fight when he knocked John Howard out, but in his 3 fights before that he lost in almost every kind of way. First off he completely flaked out against Brad Tavares, then he got brutally knocked out against Costas Philippou and most recently he got lay and prayed by Derek Brunson. The thing is… Larkin has looked really good in all of his other fights and he even looked good in the fight where he got knocked out by Philippou. You also have to remember that Larkin was undefeated in his 5 fights in Strikeforce and he even holds a win over Robbie Lawler.

I believe that Larkin will be too fast, too technical and too explosive for Ponzinibbio to deal with. Ponzibinibbio’s MMA record of 20-2 might look impressive, but he’s only ever fought 3 guys who have Wikipedia pages and he lost against 2 of them…

I believe that Larkin will be able to use his footwork and more technical striking to pick Ponzinibbio apart. Larkin is in a different league when it comes to striking and Ponzinibbio has the perfect style to bring out the best in Larkin.