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Bellator 148

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Posts: 1394
Posted: #1
Bellator 148 Risk $512.50

Paul Daley/Andy Uhrich Over 1½ (-130) $65.00 for $50.00
Chris Honeycutt wins by 3 round decision (+100) vs Paul Bradley $40.00 for $40.00
Paul Bradley wins by 3 round decision (+450) vs Chris Honeycutt $25.00 for $112.50
Patricky Freire/Ryan Couture Over 2½ (-155) $77.50 for $50.00
Patricky Freire wins by 3 round decision (+115) $75.00 for $86.25
Ryan Couture scorecards = no action (+114) vs Patricky Freire $40.00 for $45.60
Tony Johnson Jr/Raphael Butler Over 1½ (+120) $50.00 for $60.00
Tony Johnson wins by 3 round decision (+585) $40.00 for $234.00

Parlay:
Patricky Freire (-240) + Chris Honeycutt/Paul Bradley Over 2½ (-230) $100.00 for $103.26

--

Also an underdog boxing bet tonight on the Golden Boy card streaming on Estrella TV online:

Christopher Martin (+1100) vs Julian Ramirez $10.00 for $110.00
 
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Posted: #2
holy cow, you got Johnson by Decision at +585? It's all the way down to +250 at 5Dimes currently and it looks like you only posted this an hour or two ago. Pretty sure you use 5Dimes as well based on some of the props you have listed. Any idea why there would be such a drastic discrepancy or line drop?
 
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Posted: #3
Quote Originally Posted by J-MoneyMaker:

holy cow, you got Johnson by Decision at +585? It's all the way down to +250 at 5Dimes currently and it looks like you only posted this an hour or two ago. Pretty sure you use 5Dimes as well based on some of the props you have listed. Any idea why there would be such a drastic discrepancy or line drop?


I bet that line yesterday immediately when it got released. They quickly pulled it within minutes and switched the props for the two fighters. But it looks like they are honoring my original bet anyway. So just lucky in this case.
 
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Posted: #4
Oh alright, I was going to say. That's an insane line move on that type of prop in just a small period of time without something funky going on. If they took the prop down at those steep odds right away, why post the play a day later when nobody can get anything close to +585? It's not like it was a normal type of wager where there was significant line movement over a long period of time and you just happened to beat the closing line by a mile. Sounds like it's just a clear line error from the looks of it. Do you still like the play at +250 or were you only playing it because of the great odds at the time?
 
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Posted: #5
Quote Originally Posted by J-MoneyMaker:

Oh alright, I was going to say. That's an insane line move on that type of prop in just a small period of time without something funky going on. If they took the prop down at those steep odds right away, why post the play a day later when nobody can get anything close to +585? It's not like it was a normal type of wager where there was significant line movement over a long period of time and you just happened to beat the closing line by a mile. Sounds like it's just a clear line error from the looks of it. Do you still like the play at +250 or were you only playing it because of the great odds at the time?


I think Johnson by decision is a likely outcome. I'm on the over 1½ as well. I always post all my pre-fight bets for the sake of completeness and my live bets and results afterwards. I monitor the line releases as best I can and often ounce on line openers as soon as they are released to get the best prices when I think they will drop and sometimes do the opposite and wait until the last minutes before a fight to make a wager when I think a line will get better. So it's not unusual that other bettors can't get exactly the same prices I do for one reason or another.
 
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Posted: #6
Right on. I could probably argue some of that if I wanted to, but it's probably not worth either of our time. I'm not here to tell you how to post your plays. If that was the case, there are far bigger fish to fry on here than you, in terms of how people post their plays/record. I was mostly wanting to get some clarify on why I was seeing a line 325 points lower on the same site that you use, a few hours after you posted. Just trying to make sure there wasn't some kind of injury or some weirdness that I wasn't aware of. Good luck, hope you hit everything. I'm going to throw a couple bucks down on your underdog boxer for fun. Enjoy the fights!
 
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Posted: #7
For what it's worth I usually post my action in full in the afternoon maybe a few hours before a fight card starts when I'm pretty confident that all the props that are coming have been released, but some of the lines could have been bet when I felt it was most advantageous hours, days or even weeks earlier in some cases.
 
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Posted: #8
I got ya, it's all good. Just wondering the reasoning behind everything. No big deal. Hope you crush the books tonight. I might tag along on a few of those plays for a small amount since I don't really love anything outside of 1 play tonight. Good luck tomorrow as well
 
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Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by JimGunn:

Quote Originally Posted by J-MoneyMaker:

holy cow, you got Johnson by Decision at +585? It's all the way down to +250 at 5Dimes currently and it looks like you only posted this an hour or two ago. Pretty sure you use 5Dimes as well based on some of the props you have listed. Any idea why there would be such a drastic discrepancy or line drop?
I bet that line yesterday immediately when it got released. They quickly pulled it within minutes and switched the props for the two fighters. But it looks like they are honoring my original bet anyway. So just lucky in this case.

Wow Jimmy you just got screwed!!!
 
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Posted: #10
Mike Beltran must have bet Johnson inside the distance. That was a bullshit third round stoppage by a usually good referee.

Added a bet on Pitbull ML since it dropped: Patricky Freire (-180) vs Ryan Couture $180.00 for $100.00
 
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Posted: #11
Hail Mary: Andy Uhrich wins inside distance (+1185) $10.00 for $118.50   
 
 
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Posts: 293
Posted: #12
Still a card tomorrow and another a week from then. Just a speed bump. 

What I noticed. Level talent in Semi pro leagues have a washup of low level fighters, mid level fighters and fighters that could make it to UFC low to mid level. Saw 3 or 4 fights that had fighters not follow any game plan. The ones that are disciplined enough usually wins unless the other fighter outranks them by a lot (not just what odds say). 


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