Bellator 95 Picks (2 plays)

Pat Curran -140 vs Shahbulat Shamhalaev +120 - i realize that the line has gone up since i set the odds, but its nowhere near where it should be.  Shamhalaev is an exciting young fighter with great power but he's got his work cut out for him.  This fight will stay standing which is maybe why the line comes in lower than i expected.  The way i see it, Curran has a huge advantage when it comes to reserve(stamina) and his chin is the best Shamhalaev will ever see.  When Shamhalaev can't hurt Curran with punches, i don't think he will react well.  Curran just keeps coming and now has the perfect opponent for his style, a guy who's looking to trade punches and will come forward.  Curran has advantages everywhere except maybe doesn't have the one punch power of his russian opponent but thats about it.  This fight is going to be a showcase of Pat Curran's skills and this very big 145 er will eventually wear down Shamhalaev and get a spectacular finish.

3 units  Pat Curran -140

Frodo Khasbulaev -280 vs Mike Richman +240 - i was wrong to go against Frodo when he fought Sandro but everything lines up for me in this one.  Richman must be somewhat spent after 2 tough fights while Frodo has cruised into the finals with 2 dominant performances.  I was shocked to see Richman get by Bezzera but he won't be so lucky on this night.  Khasbulaev has had his problems with strong grapplers in the past, but maybe he has begun to change those issues as Frodo is definitely trending upward with 8 straight wins(7 of them inside the distance)  Richman doesn't really have the power to scare me off this pick, so i will lay the lumber and see what happens.

2 units  Frodo Khasbulaev -280

"opinions" on other fights;

Brett Cooper -300 vs Doug Marshall +250 - can't touch this one, but based on what i know Marshall definitely has a good chance to win.  Cooper has good skills but he's a slow middleweight.  Now Cooper has shown to be durable but on the downside of that he still looks poor on defense as he gets hit pretty easily.  Marshall is up there in age so it won't take much for him to get put out, but lately he's been hot and his win over Spang tells me he can still get someone out of there in a hurry.  Question of the fight is when Marshall lands can Cooper survive?  I'm going to guess  no, so i see Cooper getting caught and finished early.  The "Rhino" gets paid!

Rick Hawn -450 vs Karo Parisyan +350 - of course i'm never interested in these big lines unless i see an arguement for the dog.  The "go against" is live as Hawn is 36, but Parisyan came in soft and hasn't put enough success together to get me excited.  Parisyan does make me nervous as he has(i think) a size advantage and does have skills but won't put any faith in him until he can win a significant fight.  Going with Hawn but just going to watch this one.

good luck with your plays,

-boldtiger

Nice write ups. I'm placing small on the under on the last four fights

Hawn is a little older, but Karo hasn't been the same in the past couple of years.  Kick'n his prescription drug habit and his personal demons has taken a toll on him mentally. I was a Karo fan back in his UFC days. But he didn't look like the UFC Karo we know at the weigh ins yesterday. Karo looks out of shape and I think he will get finished in the 1st rd.

Thank you for the write up, I was leaning towards Shahbulat Shamhalaev & Frodo on ML. I think I will place my bets.