Fox 18 picks

2016 Totals = -910

Dwyer/Brown arbitrage 200/340, 318/200

Caught 170 out there on Dwyer and it moved later.  I have no real idea about Brown's skills, so I went ahead and freerolled for 22$.

Parlay:  Bader TKO,KO, Sullivan/Yakovlev goes distance, T. Martin ITD : 40/1135.79

T. Martin ITD Olivieri  100/138

 - Banging my head against the wall here.  Lost my ass before betting on Martin but still believe in his talent level as I saw him win rounds of R. Magomedov and Dariush.  If he wins, he wins early.

T. Martin over Olivieri 340/200

Dustin Ortiz over Reis 420/200

Ortiz has competed very well against good competition.  I'm starting to worry a little about this one as Reis is the bigger fighter.  Still think Ortiz will get the decision.

Ellenberger ITD Saffediene 100/410

Taking a potshot here that Jake can land a bomb.

Bader over Johnson 700/2285

I liked this one from the start and bet it early.  It has moved a good bit.  Still think its probably a greater than 50% proposition that AJ KOs Bader, but Bader's fight IQ seems to have grown over the last couple of fights and just don't think he's as likely to overcommit himself like he did against Texiera and Machida.  Too much value to pass up here in my mind.

Good luck everyone!!  A decent night of fights.  May toss a little on Yakovlev and a few other degen bets, but unlikely to post.  Reading other people's posts have gotten me to think about taking a stab on Big Ben.

Still wating to pull the trigger on Rothwell but probably will now.  Money has surely come in on him so far.

decide to add: Barberena over Northcutt 400/1400.  Just saw this out there on Bovada - could arb out now but I think I'll let it ride for a while.  Sage just hasn't faced much competition and this guy is only 26, at MMA LAB and surely improving as well.  At least this guy didn't get finished by Laprise, who I think is pretty good.  Need to go watch that fight.

That is a good question really.  I just take note of it because often times the final line is more indicative of the actual odds of the match.  Things change such as a fighter coming in overweight, or some other information that might cause bettors to load up on one guy, thus lowering the odds.  But I guess if nothing has really changed, then the odds moving shouldn't matter.

I added a few more plays:

Ellenberger over Saffediene 200/450

Diego Ferriera over Mercier 200/500

NOT Northcutt ITD 230/200

Recap: +978

2016 Figure = +68

Dug out of the hole - now just need to not dig another one!

On to next week, not seeing much out there to bet early.  Will hope to find a few on the undercard once those lines come out.