Icculus UFN 39 Plays

YTD: (+$120)

UFN 39:  Jaragua do Sul, Santa Catarina Brazil

"Vai morrer! Vai morrer!" -crowd chant during UFC fights

Its hard to bet against Brazilians in their home country, though sometimes the rookies act scared when on the big stage (TUFBRAZIL final).  Long distance travel and jetlag can be tough on fighters, especially when traveling outside the USA.  Remember when in doubt bet against the guy who dances his way to the ring, and always take the eastern Europeans.  

Lets get to it !  Undercard:

Douglas Silva De Andrade (145) vs. Zubaira Tukhugov (146)

Both of these guys can strike and like every Brazilian, Di Andre can wrestle too.  I have a thing about betting on the Russians however, call it my Fedor complex.  They rarely show emotion, they just go out and beat the snot out of anyone. I might also take the under (2.5) but i like the Russian to start the fight.  I will be drinking vodka again tomorrow.  Nostrovia!

Tukhugov (-115):  115 to win 100

Felipe Arantes (146) vs. Maximo Blanco (147.9)*

Blanco looked like a prune and couldn't make weight.  Good luck loosing another 1.9 lbs in 1 hour dummy...    Arantes wins by decision.

Arantes (-115): 115 to win 100

Cristiano Marcello (156) vs. Joe Proctor (155)

Honestly, i think Marcello is good $$ with the home field advantage.  Proctor i think will get our wrestled by this famous BJJ coach in his own country.   

Marcello (+182):  100 to win 182

I will post my main card picks tonight.  I hate laying juice on the line so most of my picks usually are underdogs...

Just added:

Jesse Ronson Vs. Francisco Trinaldo

Trinaldo is a BEAST!  Ronson was taken down 7 times by a Brazilian in his UFC debut and I can see this going the same way.  Trinaldo has much more experience and with the homefield advantage this is one fight I don't mind laying some juice. I don't think Ronson has the weapons to stop this train tonight.

Trinaldo (-150) 150 to win 100 

Just added:

Francis Carmont Vs. Jacare "Jacare" Souza

I think he wins this fight more than 22% of the time so (+425) is an amazing value for my $$.  Plus he is corned by GSP which means he has been taught how to win a decision and not loose his cool...Reach and size will play a factor for Carmont as he is walking around at 210lbs. GSP has showed Carmont how to avoid all the tricky submission attempts and I say he grinds out a victory.   

Carmont (+425)  50 to win 213.00

There are not as many BIG MONEY betters in Brazil as the USA.  I am sure people have looked at Ronson's overall record and are betting based on that, he only has had 1 fight in the UFC though and as he will learn again tonight its much easier to beat up people in Manatoba Canada then in Sao Palo Brazil....

Added:

WILSON REIS (WILSON REIS vrs YURI ALCANTARA) o2½-135

I took Reis as my underdog in his last fight against menjavar, you could hit this guy with a Mack Truck and he wont stop coming at you. Yuri just went the distance with faber.  Both of these guys are poised to make the next step so I think they take a timid approach... that and I think undercard Brazilian fighters often have stage fright

135 to win 100 Over 2.5 rounds 

added:

ANDY OGLE vrs CHARLES OLIVEIRA) o1½-125

Since no one seems to want to finish a fight in 2014, good value- I think ogle is way overmatched but he is a hard headed dude. Oliveira's parents are in the audience so I think he plays it fairly safe in the beginning... you don't want to have mom see you knocked the f out

125 to win 100

5-1 on this card with 1 pending.

I am staying away from the Main Event in this.  I always seem to be on the opposite end of Machida fights so I am just going to enjoy this one as a fan...

I see no value in the silva fight, I think silva takes it.

I really don't know much about Nicholas Musoke Vs. Viscardi Andrade so I am staying away.  I would assume it would go over since every fight has gone over.... 

I did add an extra 50 on Carmont to make it 100 to win 425 (Mainly since I was up already... lets have some fun)

Quote Originally Posted by Systemtrend:

nice night for you

Thank you, it could be a great night if Carmont channel's his inner GSP. 

thx everyone.  5-2 not a bad night.  Wish my longshots would have hit.

UFC YTD $420   :)