Some Picks....

What an excellent day for sports between the NFL Divisional round and better-than-decent UFC card. There are a couple fights I really am looking forward to. I was good with picking winners last week, but actually lost overall on the event due to very poor structuring of my parlays (cough, Arlovski, cough). Last year I didn't record my YTD or previous week's stats, but I will be doing that this year for reference.

YTD Winners: 5-2

Dominick Cruz over TJ Dillashaw (R5 Decision)

Stop me if you've heard any of this before. Dominick Cruz never lost his belt- he had to vacate his belt due to a vicious series of injuries that sidelined him for almost 3 years, and following his (dominant) return he has been sidelined for an additional 15 months. Some people think he's going to be rusty. Some people think Dillashaw is too dominant. But I'm not buying ANY of that! Cruz may not be the most entertaining to watch, but he's passed much tougher tests than TJ. He beat the champ Johnson. He beat Faber. He beat Benavidez twice. While Dillashaw beat the champ Barao, this on the downhill side of Barao's career. He took 5 rounds to beat Joe Soto, who had <24 hour notice and has been dogsh*t since coming to the UFC. I'm not saying Dillashaw can't beat Cruz, I'm saying that there is zero reason to bet against Cruz here, especially at underdog prices. If Dillashaw wins, I won't be betting against him ever again.

Anthony Pettis over Eddie Alvarez (R1/R2 Submission)

Anthony Pettis is going to prove he deserves the next title shot, whether that's a rematch with RDA or to challenge against McGregor. He was on a 5 fight win streak with 4 finishes before losing a decision to RDA. Those wins were amazing wins. First round finishes over Joe Lauzon, Donald Cerrone, Benson Henderson, and a 2nd round finish over Melendez. That type of skill is going to show up tonight against a completely over-rated Eddie Alvarez, who frankly doesn't deserve to be on a main card... he shouldn't even be ranked in the UFC.

Francisco Trinaldo over Ross Pearson (R3 Decision)

There's nothing that I especially love over Trinaldo, but the guy just won't lose fights. He's won 5 of last 6, including 4 straight and his only loss to an under-rated Michael Chiesa. On the other side, Ross Pearson seems to only beat losers. He's 3-3 over his last 6 and those 3 wins came over: Maynard (4L straight), Sam Stout (3L straight), Felder (2L straight). So what do you do when a guy who refuses to lose is fighting a guy who can only beat bums? You bet that trend!!

Daron Cruickshank over Paul Felder (R2 TKO)

Both of these guys have been losing lately. Both of these guys are 100% strikers, and I believe Karate strikers. This is a pretty marginal pick and I don't love it. But I think Cruickshank has a the edge in both striking skill, power & experience. Watch out for Cruickshank's switch kick, especially the left. It could make the difference in this fight.

Sean O'Connell over Ilir Latifi (R1 TKO)

This is another marginal pick. Someone is knocking someone out. The safe bet here is under 1.5 but I'm picking O'Connell to do it. I don't see any huge edge either way, but O'Connell really showed his ability to take punishment against Matt Van Buren.

Charles Rosa over Kyle Bochniak (R2 Submission)

I only know about Charles Rosa in this fight- never heard of Kyle Bochniak, but that's also the 3rd opponent Rosa was scheduled for on this card. If making a UFC debut on short notice isn't bad enough, this guy Bochniak is doing it against a highly skilled BJJ submission artist in Charles Rosa... in Rosa's home town. Rosa has finished 100% of his 10 wins with 7 by submission. Each of his 2 losses was close and within reach. There's nothing to debate here. Rosa is a lock to win this fight. Bet it all. Rosa ITD is +109 right now.

Elvis Mutapic over Francimar Barroso (R3 Decision)

Elvis is the favorite here, despite making his UFC debut in this fight. I think there are several angles at play. First, he's moving up in weight and is not doing any weight cut at all. I think that will help him here. Additionally, Barroso fights out of Nova Uniao, and their gym has gone something like 2-8 since the new PED testing policy started in July (and this is his first fight since). Look at the turn Barrao, Aldo & Leites have taken. I think it's obvious that whole gym was roided up to the gills, and on the assumption they have stopped, they're all worth betting against.

I will be playing a few other "flyer" picks as well, but the bulk of my money will be on my confidence picks above.

Correction to above: I said Rosa had an advantage over fighting UFC newcomer Kyle Bochniak in his own home town. Bochniak is from Boston, so it's neutral territory.

 I will be cheering for Pettis and Trinaldo too. Lets cash in 

Good luck Whitebelt!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

whats ur opinion on the Ben Saunders vs Cote fight

I put Saunders ITD in a parlay. I think he holds all the edges and looked good in his first 3 ufc fights. Better striking, significant height and reach advantages, and significant grappling advantage. He showed his nasty rubber guard in his last fight.

You make yourself sound so ridiculous with the Alvarez comments.. Yes i think Pettis will win and his striking is better but Alvarez has very solid wrestling, good BJJ and good boxing. He doesnt deserve a Main Card ?   And shouldnt be ranked in UFC ?  

I usually enjoy reading your writeups but sometimes you say off the wall stuff thats foolish.   

As for Soto, he's a very solid grappler under Dave Terrell, was a Bellator Champ and although he hasnt looked good in UFC he's a young solid fighter but you bash him like he's trash. 

Joe Soto is a very talented grappler- he nearly secured a gogoplata in his last fight 2 weeks ago. I also don't hold his loss to TJ against him, that was as short as notice possible and he fought a tough fight and nearly went the distance. But after that loss to Birchak, and Tanaka he's 0-3 in the UFC.

As for Alvarez, he didn't impress me in either of his fights. Beating people in Bellator, champ or not, doesn't mean you should be in the UFC. Pettis is going to expose him.

^ Just cause guys dont impress you doesnt mean they dont deserve to be where they are in their career, its a tough sport.. Eddie has put in his time and been at this a long time, saying he shouldnt be in the UFC or doesnt deserve the UFC Main Card or Rankings is pretty ridiculous.I agree he hasnt looked great in his first 2 fights, he couldnt see outta his one eye vs Melendez and had to resort to wrestling and grinded out the W, he looked good in Rd 1 vs Cerrone but didnt look good in Rds 2/3

When you take a look at Dominick Cruz’s career history, you have to admire his 20-1 MMA record, but you also can’t help but notice that all his notable wins have come against either Flyweight’s or fighter’s who don’t have the power to hurt him standing up…

What’s interesting about those wins is that Benavidez, Mighty Mouse, McCall and Jorgensen were only fighting at Bantamweight because a Flyweight division didn’t exist at the time. Cruz was much bigger than all those guys and he used it to his advantage by outwrestling them.