I'm trying to figure out how Herman is a 2-1 underdog here. Boetsch has lost 5 out of his 7 fight and had never been very impressive in any of his fights. Herman doesn't get knocked out much which is how Boetsch ussually wins most of his fights. I think Herman is great value here. IMO this is much more even fight than odds suggest.
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I'm trying to figure out how Herman is a 2-1 underdog here. Boetsch has lost 5 out of his 7 fight and had never been very impressive in any of his fights. Herman doesn't get knocked out much which is how Boetsch ussually wins most of his fights. I think Herman is great value here. IMO this is much more even fight than odds suggest.
Throw away match. Like any fight could go either way. No advantage either bet. Both fighters have bad records.
Usually these fights are to prop a slightly better fighter. There usually from what I have seen not too many strange bet lines like there are when fighters are on multi wins. Bet lines are fairly accurate on "build up fights". Tester fights have more value.
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Throw away match. Like any fight could go either way. No advantage either bet. Both fighters have bad records.
Usually these fights are to prop a slightly better fighter. There usually from what I have seen not too many strange bet lines like there are when fighters are on multi wins. Bet lines are fairly accurate on "build up fights". Tester fights have more value.
Keep in mind there may be Fighter A who has real odds 60 vs 40 percent at face value . While the fight goes on the odds increase to 70-30, 80-20.
So Fighter A has -300 to Fighter B +250. As the fight goes on the better fighter will beat the lesser fighter in more exchanges most cases. +250 is just a tempting bet, but the odds diminish every exchange if the fighter is outclassed meaning the odds are correct. You have to account for knockouts and submission offence and defence.
Some fighters fight lower ranking fighters than them and they get more value, then they fight someone who is and underdog who is meant to beat them. This may be an example of that, so you may be onto something.
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Keep in mind there may be Fighter A who has real odds 60 vs 40 percent at face value . While the fight goes on the odds increase to 70-30, 80-20.
So Fighter A has -300 to Fighter B +250. As the fight goes on the better fighter will beat the lesser fighter in more exchanges most cases. +250 is just a tempting bet, but the odds diminish every exchange if the fighter is outclassed meaning the odds are correct. You have to account for knockouts and submission offence and defence.
Some fighters fight lower ranking fighters than them and they get more value, then they fight someone who is and underdog who is meant to beat them. This may be an example of that, so you may be onto something.
I don't think Herman has the ground skills to get boetsch down. Or the speed and standup to win on the feet. At some pt boetsch lands a bomb for KO
Ground skills aren't the same as getting the fight to the ground. Herman is a legit brown belt in BJJ but only lands about half his takedowns. Boetsch was a D1 wrestler and knows what to do on top, but isn't very good at defending takedowns. Herman has the edge in all things ground game. Herman has good enough takedown entries to land a few against Boetsch, and once on the ground he has a significant grappling advantage.
In summary, Herman's key to victory is getting the fight on the ground and either winning points via control, or ending the fight with a submission.
Boetsch's key to victory is hurting Herman when he enters for a takedown, and stopping the fight.
Fight will end one of those 2 ways.
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Quote Originally Posted by sawman:
I don't think Herman has the ground skills to get boetsch down. Or the speed and standup to win on the feet. At some pt boetsch lands a bomb for KO
Ground skills aren't the same as getting the fight to the ground. Herman is a legit brown belt in BJJ but only lands about half his takedowns. Boetsch was a D1 wrestler and knows what to do on top, but isn't very good at defending takedowns. Herman has the edge in all things ground game. Herman has good enough takedown entries to land a few against Boetsch, and once on the ground he has a significant grappling advantage.
In summary, Herman's key to victory is getting the fight on the ground and either winning points via control, or ending the fight with a submission.
Boetsch's key to victory is hurting Herman when he enters for a takedown, and stopping the fight.
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