TUF 20 Finale, UFC on Fox 13, WSOF 16

27-20 +13.2 posted

TUF 20 lines are posted and I'll give some leans over the next few days. I'm treading lightly on that one because the UFC has definitely picked their stars for this division and I think they're lining them up accordingly. I think girls like Herrig, Calderwood, Torres are really getting favorable match-ups so they'll be involved in parlays for me.

To start, I'm gonna speculate some lines for the other weekend cards that haven't been released yet:

Dos Anjos -160 Nate Diaz +120
Overeem -240 Struve +180
Gonzaga -260 Mitrione +200
Moraga -400 Gates +300
Gadelha -180 Joanna +140
Saunders -110 Riggs -110
Varner -200 Dober +160
Brunson -180 Herman +140
Joe Ellenburger -240 Barbarena +180
Cejudo -220 Kimura +180

The other 2 fights on the card I'm not 100% comfortable with the fighters so I won't give predictions on those. On WSOF, 2 fight line predictions:

Palhares -160 Fitch +120
Palmer -200 Glenn +160

Agree, disagree? Am I mentally retarded? Leans to come...good luck this week.

I think Dos Anjos will open as a small favourite.  Diaz is still a big public bettor play, regardless of whoever he fights. 

Brunson will be a much larger favourite. I would guess in the -275 to -300 range. 

the 1 thing that worries me is are u aware of joanna jedrzejczyk's kickboxing record.....i noticed that it was taken off wiki and im pretty set on joanna's td defense and striking  ......let me know what u think

and mr u hit the hammer on the nail with the 1st post....i hope hope hope brunson is smaller that that betting line....i told every1 in my youtube videos to bet LARGE on him the larkin fight.....

I agree on Dos Anjos being a small fave. I started at -160, but certainly wouldn't be surprised by -120 or even Diaz being -120 or something. Lay off by Diaz and recent surge by RDA though. I will probably be on RDA - he's looked sharp lately.

I just set the Reem line based on his recent letdown performances. It seems like since he's been off the....uhh, horsemeat?....he's been hugely disappointing as a big favorite. I'm too lazy to look but if I had to guess, I imagine he was a bigger favorite over Bigfoot, Browne, and Big Ben than he was Frank Mir. I think this is a very winnable fight if he doesn't blow his load in the first two minutes or if he can finish Struve in those fight two though.

I think Gonzaga is the ultimate gatekeeper type that beats the Mitrione level guys. He's lost to Werdum, Couture, Carwin, JDS, Schaub, Browne and Miocic. Besides Schaub, that's not a bad list for an 11 year heavyweight. And all of those fights, arguably, was the opponent's prime.

Like you guys, I think the Brunson line may be a little wishful thinking on my part. I would be all over Brunson at -180. I set the line that way because I think Ed may be a little more known to the casual bettor. Brunson was very impressive against Larkin and may have been even more in his loss to Yoel. Derek was winning 2 rounds until the 3rd when Yoel annihilated him, but impressive nonetheless. If I remember right, that was the fight Yoel crapped himself.

Lastly, Joanna. I'd say this is one of the hardest fights to call for me. I think this could've been the straw weight title fight and I wouldn't have much problem with it. Gadelha fights out of Nova Uniao and didn't fight on tuf 20 because she can't make that many weight cuts that quickly. She's a muscular girl and I just think she edges out Joanna in public perception. It's a hard fight to call because both of them have only had one fight outside of their local regional shows, if I'm not mistaken. If it's a close line, I'm definitely going to look into it pretty closely to see if I can find an edge, but it's an interesting match-up, for sure.

Also, on Joanna, I think I remember reading something about her kickboxing for her last fight, but didn't remember until you just mentioned it now. So thank you, definitely something I'll look into.

I think Saunders will be a significant fav.

Friday looks very chalky with the girls, i do like Oliveira though. Now Saturday, well I'll save that for Saturday.

Mitrione will be favored over Gonzaga, and Dos Anjos higher than -160 against Diaz.  Those are for sure.  

Good calls guys. Lines released....bestfightodds.com

Gonna try and steal a few bones Friday. That card is a parlay paradise!!!!

Hey O, now that the lines are out, do you bet off what lines you missed the most by???? Say like Dos Anjos, you got (-160), best fight has (-245). I can barely pick winners, wondering if you have a angle here???

First off, you won all sorts last weekend - don't give me that "can't pick winners" bs! Haha

Second, nah. I just look at the card and feel out who I think will win. I pull out all the dogs first, look at both guy's recent 4-5 fights if I don't remember them and listen for any news throughout the week. Then, I try to imagine I'm their mma coach and how I'd tell them to win - what is the fighter good at and what are their opponents weaknesses? Then I find short faves (usually won't straight bet much over -200 or so straight), do the same process. Next, I try to find fights that I think will definitely be decisions or finishes for the o/u's. Then, for the big faves, I look at props (do I think they'll finish or not). Last, for big faves who I don't have a read on finish or not, I might do a parlay or two. I try not to reach though on anything. That's when I lose - when I try to find an angle on every Legacy and rfa and fight pass prelim every weekend.

Also, if my initial gut reaction doesn't match the review of the fighter, I pass. I also try not to read too much into things like weight cuts, motivation, if someone died in the fighter's family, etc. everyone deals with things differently and the best indicator is their past abilities.

For instance, I think I weighted Johny too high because of the bicep surgery thing and I think people are blaming the weight cut too much for the loss. The smart bet is that these guys have fought 10 tough rounds and they're about equal. Robbie has a slight edge in boxing at distance, Johny has a slight edge in boxing in the clinch, Johny can take him down periodically but Robbie can get out and avoid damage. All that outside influence doesn't change much of that, I don't think? Their abilities are about even. If they do a trilogy next, anyone who bets on a winner is basically rolling the roulette wheel (and that's fine - I like roulette).

Hey even a blind squirrel finds a nut, lol. Watch me revert back to form Saturday!!! Since I can't parlay or inside the distance bet I was wondering. God I wish my sites would let me wheel though!!!

BTW 29 Black in Roulette!!!!

Not a lot of time for big write-ups this week, but here's my plays for tomorrow, in order of favorite to least. I added a little line under each fight for why the play.

Oliveira -110 over Stephens 2.2 to win 2
Better Muay Thai, longer, very dangerous guard/ground.
Proctor +200 over Medeiros 1 to win 2
Major improvements in last fight, strong and tough, yancy only impressive vs weaker comp so far
Clark +160 over Rawlings 1 to win 1.6
Basically a coin flip on paper, taking the dog
Esparza +140 over Namajunas 1 to win 1.4
Wrestling, Namajunas slightly overvalued due to like-ability and flash
Markos -110 over Penne 1.1 to win 1
Good sweeps, top game, equal striking. Jiu jitsu defense only concern.
Herrig + Torres + Calderwood parlay 1 to win .8
Better fighters all around

Next round to be up tomorrow or Saturday morning. Good luck my dudes.

Good luck O.

BOL on the events O 

Thanks guys - enjoy the fights!

I bet Oliviera at first, but after missing weight I am now on Stephens slightly.  Charles's chin not too good (Cub) and Stephens can definitely catch him with something big.  Stephens is large for this weight class and has good enough wrestling to stay off the floor for anything Oliviera's got for takedowns (see Elkins fight).  I may play the Stephens KO prop.

I don't think the extra weight cut makes much difference. You see guys miss pretty often and it doesn't seem to effect outcomes, to me, very much. I think that commissions shouldn't allow it - if you miss twice you must move up classes - but that's a different discussion.

As far as size is concerned, Jeremy and Do Bronx are both enormous for this class. Where Charles has the most advantage, his length, is where he'll need it most - on the feet.

I also look at strength of losses. Charles has lost only to Frankie, Cub, Cerrone and Jim Miller. I just don't see Stephens in that group.

I've been wrong plenty though, but that's just what I see. Good luck to you.

For tomorrow:

Moraga inside distance over Gates -110 2.2 to win 2
When Moraga can bully, he's very good
Cejudo by decision over Kimura -160 1.6 to win 1
Cejudo by wrestling; Kimura good enough to avoid finish
Riggs over Saunders +220 1 to win 2.2
Riggs hits hard, Saunders is wild.
Brunson inside distance over Herman +200 1 to win 2
Brunson is Herman 2.0 - he does everything better and has massive advantage in power
JDS and Stipe start round 3 +140 1 to win 1.4
Cain is Stipe 2.0 so the blueprint is there, but I think stipe is good enough to work behind a jab and clinch to stay alive for awhile. Also we'll see how sharp JDS is after the time off.
Gonzaga +120 over meathead 1 to win 1.2
Gonzaga only loses to the elite and Mitrione is not there


WSOF:
Glenn +130 over Palmer 2 to win 2.6
Can Palmer lay and pray his way to a win? Not in 5 rounds, IMO.
Palhares -140 over Fitch 1.4 to win 1
Heel hook city. I haven't bet this one yet, waiting to see if they have ITD or, favorably, sub prop available. Palhares won't win by decision or even TKO/KO. It's sub or he quits. Comforting having money on him.


Good luck!

Like Struve at +230.  Overeem's confidence is shot and I think Struve fights a smart fight at distance (Stipe) and waits until Reem gasses out and finishes him the same way.  Also playing Nate and Noons and taking a stab that Stipe beats JDS.  Hope the dogs bark!  Could easily be looking at an o-fer though.

Not a bad Friday night. Clark, Esparza looked good!!!