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TUF Finale Play (11-2 +33.8*)

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Posted: #1
MMA: 11-2 +33.8*
NHL: 4-0 +9.9*

Jonathan Brookins -260 (3*)
I normally don't lay this kind of juice but no one can beat this guy. Brookins is one of the most technically gifted fighters ever to be on TUF in my opinion. I haven't really been all that impressed with Johnson. I actually thought he should have lost a close decision in his last fight. I think Brookins wins this fight easy by either tapout or unanimous decision.

Good Luck Everyone
 
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Posted: #2
 I have him and bannar parlayed together.
 
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Posted: #3
***Bonnar
 
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Posted: #4
-260 is too much to lay here.

Bader was +200 and won easy over Magalhes.  You can't tell enough about training regimes, and skills from an edited show.  All these fights are on short notice.....

Johnson has been training with Jackson's camp for 3 months now, and knows how Brookins likes to fight.  I'm not saying Johnson will for sure win, but I can't imagine laying -260 on a guy you've seen on an edited TV show.....


 
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Posted: #5
Quote Originally Posted by sharpstick:

-260 is too much to lay here.

Bader was +200 and won easy over Magalhes.  You can't tell enough about training regimes, and skills from an edited show.  All these fights are on short notice.....

Johnson has been training with Jackson's camp for 3 months now, and knows how Brookins likes to fight.  I'm not saying Johnson will for sure win, but I can't imagine laying -260 on a guy you've seen on an edited TV show.....




Well, I'm 11-2 in my MMA picks and a lot of those have big underdogs. I think I'm more than just a little lucky. Brookins wins this fight easy. By the way, where the fights edited? You are free to post your plays and opinions. Go ahead and bet Johnson since he's been training with Greg Jackson. Greg Jackson trained fighters are undefeated in the histoy of MMA, right? Good luck tonight. This fight won't be close.
 
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Posted: #6
Quote Originally Posted by Dr_Death:



Well, I'm 11-2 in my MMA picks and a lot of those have big underdogs. I think I'm more than just a little lucky. Brookins wins this fight easy. By the way, where the fights edited? You are free to post your plays and opinions. Go ahead and bet Johnson since he's been training with Greg Jackson. Greg Jackson trained fighters are undefeated in the histoy of MMA, right? Good luck tonight. This fight won't be close.


I must of missed where he questioned your record and said Greg Jackson is unbeaten.  Sharp was just trying to add an opposing opinion to your thread - pretty poor response from you.  Its clear you aren't interesting in discussing the fights as you must already know the results
 
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Are you kidding me? Sure its an edited tv show, but we have been able to track these guys for the first 3 months of their training. If you can't decide for yourself who is supposed to win, then don't place the bet but to blame your lack of knowledge because its an edited show, cmon. You should still know both guys in and out by now knowing their faults and strengths.

That being said, Brookins is the real deal, definitely deserving of the price given. Johnson has proven to be no pushover though, it should still be a tight fight. The fact is, I don' t think either can finish this fight, will definitely be a decision. Im betting the fight goes the distance along with a Brookins parlay.
 
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Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by Dr_Death:



Well, I'm 11-2 in my MMA picks and a lot of those have big underdogs. I think I'm more than just a little lucky. Brookins wins this fight easy. By the way, where the fights edited? You are free to post your plays and opinions. Go ahead and bet Johnson since he's been training with Greg Jackson. Greg Jackson trained fighters are undefeated in the histoy of MMA, right? Good luck tonight. This fight won't be close.


You obviously no nothing about betting successful long term.  No matter who wins tonight you are making a bet that will return profit in the long run.  Brookins -260 is not long term success.....

Never did I say Johnson would win, or Greg Jackson has never lost a fight.  Just childish shit you add in to your post for no reason.

I guarantee you don't know shit about Brookins except what you saw on an edited show with having 3 fights in an 8 week span.

Too many variables to lay that juice.  But I assume you know everything..... 
 
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Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by KineProfessor:



I must of missed where he questioned your record and said Greg Jackson is unbeaten.  Sharp was just trying to add an opposing opinion to your thread - pretty poor response from you.  Its clear you aren't interesting in discussing the fights as you must already know the results


Well, I'll try to sleep tonight somehow. Saying he trains with Greg Jackson and "knows how Brookins likes to fight" is a ridiculous argument. Don't tell me what is too much to lay and what isn't. It's my money. If you two are Covers friends or whatever, great. I'm happy for you. I'm just trying to help people out. You can bet on value all day long. It won't mean a damn thing when Johnson gets thumped later tonight. Good luck to you. 
 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by MajaWaja:

Are you kidding me? Sure its an edited tv show, but we have been able to track these guys for the first 3 months of their training. If you can't decide for yourself who is supposed to win, then don't place the bet but to blame your lack of knowledge because its an edited show, cmon. You should still know both guys in and out by now knowing their faults and strengths.

That being said, Brookins is the real deal, definitely deserving of the price given. Johnson has proven to be no pushover though, it should still be a tight fight. The fact is, I don' t think either can finish this fight, will definitely be a decision. Im betting the fight goes the distance along with a Brookins parlay.


What did you track?  The drinking in the house?  The meditating outside?

I bet Johnson because I think it will return value long term.  These guys only fight once, so I might not win this time....but I strongly think if I bet Johnson +220 100 times against Brookins I would come out ahead.

Keep thinking short term...... it will get you far gambling.
 
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by sharpstick:



You obviously no nothing about betting successful long term.  No matter who wins tonight you are making a bet that will return profit in the long run.  Brookins -260 is not long term success.....

Never did I say Johnson would win, or Greg Jackson has never lost a fight.  Just childish shit you add in to your post for no reason.

I guarantee you don't know shit about Brookins except what you saw on an edited show with having 3 fights in an 8 week span.

Too many variables to lay that juice.  But I assume you know everything..... 


I've been posting MMA plays here for over a year. Is that long-term? Besides, this is coming from a guy who has 7 NBA wins and claims to up 240 units. Give me a break. Monopoly money. But thanks for the gambling lesson. And it does matter if Brookins wins. If he wins I win money and you lose money and vice versa. So don't cover you ass by saying it doesn't matter. Enjoy the fights tonight.
 
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Okay, based on your logic, never bet any favorites, all dogs for successful long-term profits, Okay,I'm not gonna argue with you because your very flawed but you should not be giving shit to people for betting Brookins to win. Its almost comical.
 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by sharpstick:



What did you track?  The drinking in the house?  The meditating outside?

I bet Johnson because I think it will return value long term.  These guys only fight once, so I might not win this time....but I strongly think if I bet Johnson +220 100 times against Brookins I would come out ahead.

Keep thinking short term...... it will get you far gambling.


Oh great one, tell us how to win over 240 units with only seven wins? Since you are the gambling guru, I want to hear this one.
 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by sharpstick:



What did you track?  The drinking in the house?  The meditating outside?

I bet Johnson because I think it will return value long term.  These guys only fight once, so I might not win this time....but I strongly think if I bet Johnson +220 100 times against Brookins I would come out ahead.

Keep thinking short term...... it will get you far gambling.


What did you track other than you know Greg Jackson's name? Get off your soap box. Sitting here telling everyone how to gamble. It's embarrassing. Just post your plays and shut up.
 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by Dr_Death:



Oh great one, tell us how to win over 240 units with only seven wins? Since you are the gambling guru, I want to hear this one.


Search my threads.  50 units a play math wiz.....


 
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Posted: #16
Quote Originally Posted by Dr_Death:



What did you track other than you know Greg Jackson's name? Get off your soap box. Sitting here telling everyone how to gamble. It's embarrassing. Just post your plays and shut up.


I write about MMA in a magazine.  I talked to Michael Johnson at the MMA awards.  A special invite for my contributions to the MMA media.  I work in a sportsbook.... I know how to gamble, I know more about MMA than you could imagine.

It's a 1 unit play.  Not strong at all.... but I know if they fought 100 times it would return me money.
 
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Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by MajaWaja:

Okay, based on your logic, never bet any favorites, all dogs for successful long-term profits, Okay,I'm not gonna argue with you because your very flawed but you should not be giving shit to people for betting Brookins to win. Its almost comical.


You completely missed what I said.  But continue on thinking short term when gambling.  You might be the first person to ever succeed thinking short term in this business.....
 
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Posted: #18

I can agree that a play on Michael Johnson at that price is well worth it if you believe that he can outpoint Brookins.

I think that Brookins is a bad match up for Johnson's style though. But that doesn't mean that Johnson cannot win a decision here(Which I believe is the only way Johnson will win as I don't see Brookins getting leg kicked to death again)

1 unit on a dog with potential is not a bad play IMO.

I remember back to when George Sotiropoulos was getting odds like that...

 

 

 
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I don't know who is going to win this fight but the first line of this guy's post is "I normally don't lay this kind of juice..." Playing a big favorite every now and then doesn't mean you don't know how to gamble. Isn't it possible that he just really likes Brookins to win? 

I agree if you only bet huge ML favorites you will get into trouble at some point but I remember this guy taking Manny Gamburyan when he was like +500 against Mike Brown. It's not like he's just betting GSP and Anderson Silva.

I don't want to get into the middle of anything but in my opinion he had a right to get ticked off. Sharpstick wasn't just disagreeing with his play, he was telling him how to bet. That rubs me the wrong way too. Just my opinion. Good luck to both of you tonight. Should be some good fights with two cards to choose from. 
 
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Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by sharpstick:



I write about MMA in a magazine.  I talked to Michael Johnson at the MMA awards.  A special invite for my contributions to the MMA media.  I work in a sportsbook.... I know how to gamble, I know more about MMA than you could imagine.

It's a 1 unit play.  Not strong at all.... but I know if they fought 100 times it would return me money.

I'm a sportswriter too. It doesn't mean you always know the right way to bet. I've been writing for over 20 years and let me tell you, I've lost a bet or two in my day. Following a sport and betting on it are two completely different things in my opinion. I've done a ton of interviews. It doesn't help you pick winners at all. At least that's been my experience. I cover 1-AA football and if you told me William and Mary would get blasted at home today, I would have thought you were nuts. Good luck. 
 
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Posted: #21
 
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Posted: #22
Quote Originally Posted by sharpstick:



You completely missed what I said.  But continue on thinking short term when gambling.  You might be the first person to ever succeed thinking short term in this business.....


I do fine, thanks.
I just don't understand as a so-called 'expert', your theories. Not sure what Michael Johnson said to you at the awards to convince you but you assure us this fight is a toss-up yet you discredit anything that happens on the TUF show because its an 'edited' show. Even though you can easily see their training routines, fights, mentalities and basically anything you need to evaluate a fighter, the show should be discredited according to you. Yet you re-assure us of Michael Johnson, you must know him much better than us, have you attended his training sessions recently and have inside knowledge? otherwise I really don't understand.

As an expert, i just don't see how you can't properly evaluate these fighters after seeing 12 some weeks of content from these guys. You said the show doesn't show enough to evaluate these fighters and that the price is wrong. Well, its not, Brookins is deserving of that price; unfortunately you don't see it. If they were to fight 100 times, unfortunately you would not get your money back either, as an MMA expert, you should know that.
 
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Posted: #23
I'll be there first to tell you knowing more than most about a sport and betting on it are two different animals.  But MMA is a little less to the extent.  There are many things the public don't know about fighters.  Injuries during training, the weight cut, what camp they are at for how long.....etc.

If Tom Brady gets a haircut everyone knows about it.  I am able to get and use that information about MMA.  

-260 will not net a profit if these two fought 100 times.  Will it tonight?  Maybe.  But if you use short term results and the results of 1 outcome you are doing yourself a disservice.  Look at the most successful sports bettor of all time.... Billy Walters.  Using his computer group to tell him which side of a line will return a profit if its bet 10,000 times.... not just looking at the 1 result played.

For the guy who said I am telling him how to bet.... I am giving my opinion.  It comes with my screen name so its attached to me alerting everyone this is what I think.  If you don't want advice, thoughts or opinions then why the fuck are you on a gambling forum?  You want everyone to check in your thread and say "Hey you're right."  What's the point of that?  

It doesn't matter.  You 3 know everything anyway....

Good luck tonight.
 
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Posted: #24
Listen guys, I'm not here to fight with anyone. Some of you may remember when I first come on here Bibendi and I used to fight all the time. Then I read a post where he said he lost his job and couldn't find work. I realized then it was childish to fight with people on the Internet because we don't really know each other and what is going on in other people's lives. I've had a hectic day and probably overreacted. I don't claim to be the best gambler on the planet. I know a little MMA and every now and then I stop by and post a play I like. Sometimes I'm right and sometimes I'm wrong. I'm not a sharp, I'm no expert, just a guy that watches sports. If you like Brookins, play him. If you like Johnson, play him. If you think the juice is too high, lay off. In the end we are all just trying to win money. Good luck tonight.
 
 
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Posted: #25

Quote Originally Posted by Dr_Death:

Listen guys, I'm not here to fight with anyone. Some of you may remember when I first come on here Bibendi and I used to fight all the time. Then I read a post where he said he lost his job and couldn't find work. I realized then it was childish to fight with people on the Internet because we don't really know each other and what is going on in other people's lives. I've had a hectic day and probably overreacted. I don't claim to be the best gambler on the planet. I know a little MMA and every now and then I stop by and post a play I like. Sometimes I'm right and sometimes I'm wrong. I'm not a sharp, I'm no expert, just a guy that watches sports. If you like Brookins, play him. If you like Johnson, play him. If you think the juice is too high, lay off. In the end we are all just trying to win money. Good luck tonight.

Well said.

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