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UFC 133 - Ortiz vs. Evans - Picks?

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Posted: #1
Hola,

Usually, I don't post until the day off the fight but I'm pretty excited for this upcoming UFC 133.

Ortiz vs. Evans is right around the corner and was wondering what are your thoughts on this card. 

I don't think I'll be playing the main event as I don't want to spot -400 on Evans or take Tito as I feel his chances of pulling another upset are slim.  Ortiz, in many peoples eyes including myself thought he lost against Evans in their previous matchup.

I'm also undecided on Akiyama vs. Belfort.  Both guys are coming off of loses and don't have steady fights to draw any patterns or conclusions from.  Belfort can be so hit or miss. 

So far I'm leaning on MacDonald and Hammil. 

MacDonald impressed with his fight with Condit he showed a good amount of skills in that fight. 

I'm going with Hammil for his wrestling pedigree against his opponent who is a striker.  I think his size, strength and wrestling will be the difference against his slimmer/smaller opponent. 
 
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Posted: #2
i  think pyle will be tough for rory..... he might be the smartest fighter in the ufc.....  i can see see y rory is a fave by the way he dismantled diaz but this number is rather large to me.....should be a tough fight.....if i play it at all i willl play pyle just because i think the odds r a bit heavy.....but i cant blame u for taking the kid.....  he has looked really good in the cage......  good luck
 
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Posted: #3

I like Rory to win, but like it was said, pretty steep line on him.  Pyle is tough, but I think Rory is getting better each fight.

I'm on Gustaffeson.  I see why people would play Hamill at his price, but I think it is a terrible matchup for Hamill.  Imagine what the line would be if Hamill wasn't so recognizable to the general public.  Hamill's wrestling doesn't impress me enough to think he can win this fight. 

 

 
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Posted: #4
Ortiz at +333 best overlay this year. Evans has not fought in 14+months of and injury. Also Ortiz won the first fight if he did not have a point takin off. What a value, this is more of a pickem fight.
 
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Posted: #5
Quote Originally Posted by Hollywoodturf:

Ortiz at +333 best overlay this year. Evans has not fought in 14+months of and injury. Also Ortiz won the first fight if he did not have a point takin off. What a value, this is more of a pickem fight.


Come on man. A pick em fight?

 If Tito never fought Bader two weeks ago and this was his first fight back he would be +500.  The value got sucked out when he beat Bader.  This line is spot on.
 
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Posted: #6
Quote Originally Posted by sharpstick:



Come on man. A pick em fight?

 If Tito never fought Bader two weeks ago and this was his first fight back he would be +500.  The value got sucked out when he beat Bader.  This line is spot on.
 
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Posted: #7
     Watch the first fight and tell me Evans connected with a flush shot to Ortiz chin? Think I saw one time. The 4in height differeence really works in Titos favour. It will show again. Don't get me wrong Evans could win? But to put down at -500 on a guy who has not fought in over 14 months and a knee opp, NO THX. Save your money and take supplements to help your brain. 
 
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Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by sharpstick:



Come on man. A pick em fight?

 If Tito never fought Bader two weeks ago and this was his first fight back he would be +500.  The value got sucked out when he beat Bader.  This line is spot on.

Looked to me like he beat Hamil also.

 
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Posted: #9
I'm on tito also (small) but ur crazy if u think tito won that hamill fight.
 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by sharpstick:



Come on man. A pick em fight?

 If Tito never fought Bader two weeks ago and this was his first fight back he would be +500.  The value got sucked out when he beat Bader.  This line is spot on.

 

But for the price you have to say that Tito is the play if you do bet at all right?  Rashad is -500 at my book right now, that's nuts!

 

Plus, you can't dismiss the Bader fight....Bader is a tough SOB.

 
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Posted: #11

Quote Originally Posted by CTownLetdown:

I'm on tito also (small) but ur crazy if u think tito won that hamill fight.

Only seen it live, my have to watch it again.

 
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Posted: #12

he won evans fight but evans is a better fighter now- tito did not do anything agsint hammil- still you gotta put a unit on tito just to root for the riches to rags back to riches story lol

 
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Posted: #13

I'm not going to act like Tito has no shot, because as seen with Bader at +350 odds anyone can win.

But lets all realize that Bader is not in the same class as Evans.  Hindsight is 20/20, but Bader is a product of TUF, and extremely overrated.  His wrestling hasn't looked good at all, and his striking is still bad.  He has power, but he isn't very good.  Bader hasn't beat many relevant guys in the UFC.  Nog was his best win, and Nog stuffed around 75% of his TD attempts. 

Evans is coming off a long layoff, but he is a much better fighter than Bader. 

That said, a play on Tito isn't a bad play.  There is value.  But in the end I don't think Tito can pull it off again.  Before the Bader fight he had no shot, and was written off.  He beats Bader and now people think he can beat Evans all of a sudden.  I just don't see it happening.

 
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Posted: #14

I think tito has a better chance than most think.  MMA is all about matchups and I think Tito matches up great with Evans.  I do agree people are jumping on his bandwagon casue of the Bader fight.  If tito were fighting Machida again per say Id give him almost no chance at all.  Tito has a good chin and a much bigger guy than rashad and in a wrestling match, which this will be that might give him the upper hand.  Plus like alot of you guys have said Rashad hasnt fought in 14 months.

 

 
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Posted: #15
In this case size does and will matter Tito 6 ' 3.
 
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Posted: #16
i like tito and sexyama
 
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Posted: #17
Odds are out for the full card on Bookmaker.
 
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Posted: #18
Like it was said earlier, the odds seem right with Tito's upset over Bader.  I hit the Tito pick because of the value but in my opinion, Evans has improved so much since their first fight while Tito has dropped a bit since then.

Still, I can't risk picking Evans spotting that much.  Then again, if Tito pulls this off, this can be the start of a TUF-Killer persona.  :)
 
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Posted: #19
Quote Originally Posted by Bighurt:

i  think pyle will be tough for rory..... he might be the smartest fighter in the ufc.....  i can see see y rory is a fave by the way he dismantled diaz but this number is rather large to me.....should be a tough fight.....if i play it at all i willl play pyle just because i think the odds r a bit heavy.....but i cant blame u for taking the kid.....  he has looked really good in the cage......  good luck


What's the deal with Pyle being smart?  Is he engineer smart like Carwin? or smart like a Greg Jackson gameplan? 
 
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Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by jonnyg4508:

I like Rory to win, but like it was said, pretty steep line on him.  Pyle is tough, but I think Rory is getting better each fight.

I'm on Gustaffeson.  I see why people would play Hamill at his price, but I think it is a terrible matchup for Hamill.  Imagine what the line would be if Hamill wasn't so recognizable to the general public.  Hamill's wrestling doesn't impress me enough to think he can win this fight. 

 



As long as Hammil doesn't try to stand up with Gustaffson, I think his wrestling is more than effective.  Hammil just needs to set them up better and not telegraph them like he did in the Rampage fight. 


 
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Posted: #21
Quote Originally Posted by TurboChicken:



What's the deal with Pyle being smart?  Is he engineer smart like Carwin? or smart like a Greg Jackson gameplan? 

haha.........i mean smart as in gameplan........rory has more ability and is a smart fighter himself......i just think pyle has a better shot than the odds say....hes been fighting a long time and i think his experience could be a big plus for him in this fight......BOL turbo
 
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Posted: #22

     Evans will win the 3rd round but that is it, Tito by decision or Evans by bad judging and a booing crowd with an upset Ortiz.

 
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Posted: #23
Evans has improved since their first fight and ORtiz has just gotten older.
 
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Posted: #24

I bet on Rory today. Pyle is an upset king, but he's 35. I think Rory is heading in the same direction as Bones. He is going to walk over guys for a couple years.

 

You are right about his fight with Condit. He almostr won - I think Condit is a top 3 Welter

 
 
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Posted: #25
thanks for clearing that up BigHurt.  Didn't know Pyle was up there in age either.  Makes me feel better about a play on MacDonald.
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