UFC 146 & Bellator 70 Plays

Any insight on the Struve pick?  I like Struve to win as well, but I was thinking I may be bias as I have thought Struve could really be a prospect and I have ragged on Lavar...although he is doing well.

I can see Lavar catching Struve early...I mean he has power and Struve has a iffy chin.  But realistically Struve is the better fighter.  Lavar has no ground game at all.  Struve should be able to have a decent game plan here.

How do you see it shaking out.  My question is does Struve have good enough TDs?  What happens when he tries to clinch up and Lavar throws bombs?

UPDATED UFC CARD:

1. Stefan Struve (-120) over Lavar Johnson. Risking 3.6 units to win 3 units.

2.  Mike Brown (-120) over Daniel Pineda.  Risking 2.7 units to win 2.25 units.

In Struve's interviews, he has basically said that he has learnt his lessons from losses to Dos Santos, Nelson, and specifically Browne.  He said he is going to fight to his strengths, that a choke is just as legal as an elbow, etc.  Bottom line:  Struve will implement a smart ground based game plan and tap Johnson.  Yes, Struve's grappling is more than sufficient to take Johnson down without eating damage.  Heck, Pat Barry clinched, practically sneezed, fell over, and landed in full mount on Johnson

I think the line on the Struve fight is bang on at this point in time.  Johnson has been on a nice roll and the public backers will remember him from his impressive showing against Barry on Fox a few weeks ago and want to bet on him.

Mike Brown had a nice win against Nam Phan last time out.  I really think his personal problems are behind him, and still has what it takes to be a top competitor at 145.

Struve

I have cashed in on Pineda in his first two UFC fights as nice dogs in both fights.  But I think this is a good time to jump off his bandwagon.  I think Mike Brown is better than Pineda in all facets of the game.  Pineda has beaten nothing but stiffs in his career and some of his loses were not very good. 

Despite Brown's recent struggles, he is still a top 5 fighter at 145 IMO.  I think Brown will be able to dictate the pace of this fight and implement his game plan better than Pineda.  I think the personal problems that have been plaguing Brown are behind him, and I think he makes it two in a row tomorrow.

Quote Originally Posted by deserted:

GL 

I think Struvey should be able to stay on the outside for round 1 and just coast to an easy victory in round 2 or 3, or maybe just take lavar down (looks easy) , gl ! You're due for a big win 

I hope you are right!  I cannot believe the a$$ kicking I have been taking this year...

Quote Originally Posted by treasurecay25:

 I m really liking Glover Tex tomorrow in his first UFC figth? Any thoughts? I usually love my picks but loaded on levasuer and that went to shit so not doubting my picks just lobbying them off someone else who understands the game.

This is a tough fight to pick.  On paper, Teixeira should take this fight in any manner that he choses, but he is at a size and strenght disadvantage IMO, and the whole Octagon jitters thing has me backing away.  If I do play this, it will be on a small parlay.

Quote Originally Posted by ctm1985:

I'm not playing either side but that's a great line on Mike Brown.. love Struve, GL 

There has been a ton of Pineda love since this line opened, and it is hard not to be impressed by his 2 UFC wins, so I am not surprised that people are either playing Pineda or staying away from this one.

UPDATED CARD:

1.  Parlay of Jacob Volkmann over Paul Sass, Edson Barboza over Jamie Varner and Junior Dos Santos over Frank Mir.  Risking 10 units to win 11.1 units.

2.  Stefan Struve (-120) over Lavar Johnson.  Risking 3.6 units to win 3 units.

3.  Mike Brown (-120) over Daniel Pineda. Risking 2.7 units to win 2.25 units.

4.  Parlay of Diego Brandao over Darren Elkins, Roy Nelson over Dave Herman and Cain Velasquez over Antonio Silva.  Risking 1 unit to win 1.45 units.

5.  Dan Hardy (-125) over Duane Ludwing.  Risking approximately 0.6 units to win 0.5 units.

6.  CB Dollaway (+135) over Jason Miller.  Risking 0.4 units to win 0.55 units.

leans:  Texeira, Del Rosario

I may add more to some of these plays, depending how the night starts out.

BOL to everyone with your plays!!!

See play 4. 

I think Brando wins fairly easily tonight...

GL 219....hope you do well....