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UFC 160 Plays

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Captain
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Joined: Nov, 2008
Posts: 6706
Posted: #1
YTD Record:
Overall: 79-78, +23.80 Units 
UFC: 55-59, +17.55 Units 
Strikeforce: 4-3, +0.05 Units 
Bellator: 19-15, +6.10 Units 
WSOF: 1-1, +0.10 Units 
Final 2012 Record: 158-174-2, -76.20 Units 
Final 2011 Record: 148-132-3, +123.55 Units 
Final 2010 Record: 115-119-3, +11.25 Units 
Final 2009 Record: 80-82-1, +23.75 Units 


Here is what I have locked in so far:

1.  Abel Trujillo (+222) over Khabib Nurmagomedov.  Risking 2 units to win 4.45 units.

2.  Parlay of Brian Bowles over George Roop and Jeremy Stephens over Estevan Payan.  Risking 2 units to win 2 units.

3.  Rick Storyv(-145) over Mike Pyle.  Risking 1.45 units to win 1 unit.

4.  Nah-Shon Burrell (+145) over Stephen Thompson.  Risking 1 unit to win 1.45 units.

More later...
 
Captain
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Posted: #2
Were you on Abel before weigh ins as well?
Good luck with these an the rest MR
 
Captain
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Posted: #3
 
Veteran
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Posted: #4
Good luck
 
Captain
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Posted: #5
Quote Originally Posted by sawman:

Were you on Abel before weigh ins as well?
Good luck with these an the rest MR

I have had this fight circled for quite a while. My only regret is not locking in when he was +265.  Abel Has tremendous takedown defense And I think he is the more explosive striker.
 
Captain
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Posted: #6
Thanks sharp and CTM!
 
Rookie
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Posted: #7
 
Captain
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Posted: #8
Updated Card:

 1.  Abel Trujillo (+222) over Khabib Nurmagomedov.  Risking 2 units to win 4.45 units.

2.  Parlay of Brian Bowles over George Roop and Jeremy Stephens over Estevan Payan.  Risking 2 units to win 2 units.

3.  Rick Storyv(-145) over Mike Pyle.  Risking 1.45 units to win 1 unit.

4.  Nah-Shon Burrell (+145) over Stephen Thompson.  Risking 1 unit to win 1.45 units.

5.  Parlay of Colton Smith over Robert Whittaker and Glover Teixeira over James Te Huna.  Risking 3 units to win 3.3 units.

6.  Abel Trujillo - Khabib Nurmagomedov over 2.5 rounds (+130).  Risking 0.75 units to win 1 unit.
 
Prospect
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Joined: Jan, 2010
Posts: 127
Posted: #9
Surprised to see you and Sharp both on Smith. I think -200 is way too big a number for him to lay against a fighter like Whittaker.  I think Whittaker is just as good if not better than Ricci who was fighting above his weight class and Ricci was a 2.5 to 1 fav. I took Smith in that fight for pure value and hoped for the lay n pray.  Smith's striking is probably the worst in the UFC and he isnt exactly aggressive once he does get takedowns.  Laying 2-1 in hopes of a lay n pray seems crazy to me and I think Whittaker will catch Smith and knock him out. But Smith could just as easily win 30-27, anyhow, good luck with your card.
 
Captain
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Posted: #10
Gimme, Powerful wrestler versus Striker with no takedown defense. Smith should be the easiest thing on the entire cart tonight.
 
Captain
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Posted: #11
Adding:

7. Parlay of Dennis Bermudez over Max Holloway, Donald Cerrone over KJ Noons, and Cain Velasquez over Bigfoot Silva. Risking 4.2 units to win 4 units.

9. Parlay of JDS over Mark Hunt and Gray Maynard over TJ Grant. Risking 1.9 units to win 1.75 units.
 
Rookie
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Posts: 916
Posted: #12
khabib is a buttfucker!!! i hate it when wrestlers or judo guys just use it to control in stead of actually using their skills to finish a fight!!! he clearly only wins by submission or dec.
 
Rookie
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Posted: #13

Aren't you losing value on those parlays? 

For instance say 1 unit =100$. 

$200 on Stephens at -170 wins 118.

Couple the initial 200 with 118 you now have 318.

318 on Bowles at -295 wins 108.

Thos both hit you end up with 426 instead of betting 200 to win 200 and ending with 400??

Or are you just not able to play fights during the card and are willing to take the hit in value?

 
Captain
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Posted: #14
An absolute brutal start for me. Totally misread the Smith and Abel fights. Sorry guys.
 
Captain
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Posted: #15
Johnny, when I bet Stephens he was -200. Risking 2 to win 1 would give me 3. Bowles was -300. Risking the 3 to win 1 , would give me a total of 2, assuming the both had won. Therefore, I would have had to risk 5 to win 2 under your scenario, rather than risking 2 to win 2. So to answer your question, no I did not lose value by parlaying.
 
Captain
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Posted: #16
Wow! Am I going to cash an f'n ticket tonight???
 
Captain
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Posted: #17
Adding:

10. Pyle - Story over 2.5 rounds (+105). Risking 1 unit to win 1.05 units.
 
Captain
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Posted: #18
On the right side of the judge screw job 2 weeks in a row! Poor Max Holloway!
 
Rookie
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Posted: #19

Quote Originally Posted by MR219:

Johnny, when I bet Stephens he was -200. Risking 2 to win 1 would give me 3. Bowles was -300. Risking the 3 to win 1 , would give me a total of 2, assuming the both had won. Therefore, I would have had to risk 5 to win 2 under your scenario, rather than risking 2 to win 2. So to answer your question, no I did not lose value by parlaying.

Hmm, good point on the line you got vs. what they ended. 

But don't agree that you risk 5 to win 2.  You have to win both fights in a parlay anyway.  So risking 2 on Stephens and taking what you make on that win isn't really a risk. Either way you are betting 2 units initially and need both to win.  You are simply making a single bet and using what you earn to rebet again.  If you bet them separate you usually end up with more payout.  Or if the first hits you can choose to simply not rebet and cash.  Either way you need both in a parlay to win.  If you bet them both you make more money. 

I think sometimes people get too caught up in parlays.  They really do short you in many cases.

Not trying to derail your thread.  Just seeing if I am not seeing something correctly. 

 
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Posted: #20

Quote Originally Posted by MR219:

Adding:

10. Pyle - Story over 2.5 rounds (+105). Risking 1 unit to win 1.05 units.

Like this one a lot. 

GL

 
Captain
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Posted: #21
Adding:

11. Cerrone -Noons over 2.5 rounds (-140). Risking 1.4 units to win 1 unit.
 
Captain
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Posted: #22
Oops! Looks like I Mis-numbered my bets, as I don't have a play #8. LOL!
 
Captain
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Posted: #23
Since I forgot to use play #8, I am adding:

8. Parlay of Glover Tex, JDS and Cain. Risking 3.8 units to win 2.95 units.
 
Captain
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Posted: #24
The plays went 5-6 for -1.35 units, but the night could have been a whole lot worse if the judges did not give me a gift with that Bermudez decision....  It's nice to be on the right side of the almost weekly judge screw job two weeks in a row.



 
 
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Posted: #25
Here is the recap:

 1.  Abel Trujillo ,

2.  Parlay of Brian Bowles and Jeremy Stephens 

3.  Rick Story 

4.  Nah-Shon Burrell 

5.  Parlay of Colton Smith  and Glover Teixeira 

6.  Abel Trujillo - Khabib Nurmagomedov over 2.5 rounds 

7. Parlay of Dennis Bermudez ,, Donald Cerrone  and Cain Velasquez 

8. Parlay of Glover Tex , JDS  and Cain 


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