A bit disappointed that I am going to be missing this one live, after being in Vegas for the past three 4th of July shows...
Normally, I like to wait until after the weighins before locking in, but I am starting to see the lines move against me, so I have locked in on the following already:
1. Parlay of Norman Parke over Kazuki Tokudome and Frankie Edgar over Charles Oliveira. Risking 5.85 units to win 5 units.
2. Chris Weidman over Anderson Silva. I risked 2 at +200 and 2 more at +195, so the total play is risking 4 units to win 7.9 units.
3. Weidman - Silva over 2.5 rounds (+115). Risking 2 units to win 2.3 units.
4. Edgar - Oliveira over 2.5 rounds (-117). Risking 2.35 units to win 2 units.
5. Tim Boetsch (+110) over Mark Munoz. Risking 2 units to win 2.2 units.
6. Denis Siver (+200) over Cub Swanson. Risking 2 units to win 4 units.
Back with more as the fights get closer...
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
YTD Record:
Overall: 92-94, +27.45 Units
UFC: 67-72, +20.85 Units
Strikeforce: 4-3, +0.05 Units
Bellator: 20-18, +6.45 Units
WSOF: 1-1, +0.10 Units
Final 2012 Record: 158-174-2, -76.20 Units
Final 2011 Record: 148-132-3, +123.55 Units
Final 2010 Record: 115-119-3, +11.25 Units
Final 2009 Record: 80-82-1, +23.75 Units
A bit disappointed that I am going to be missing this one live, after being in Vegas for the past three 4th of July shows...
Normally, I like to wait until after the weighins before locking in, but I am starting to see the lines move against me, so I have locked in on the following already:
1. Parlay of Norman Parke over Kazuki Tokudome and Frankie Edgar over Charles Oliveira. Risking 5.85 units to win 5 units.
2. Chris Weidman over Anderson Silva. I risked 2 at +200 and 2 more at +195, so the total play is risking 4 units to win 7.9 units.
3. Weidman - Silva over 2.5 rounds (+115). Risking 2 units to win 2.3 units.
4. Edgar - Oliveira over 2.5 rounds (-117). Risking 2.35 units to win 2 units.
5. Tim Boetsch (+110) over Mark Munoz. Risking 2 units to win 2.2 units.
6. Denis Siver (+200) over Cub Swanson. Risking 2 units to win 4 units.
Love seeing you on Weidman, I took on all the guys at MMA torch when they had a Roundtable regarding this fight. But don't understand the Siver play at all. My thoughts and plays are generally in line with yours(except in the case of Smith/Whittaker) ;) and while Siver has looked good since dropping to 45, Swanson is a monster jump in class compared to the guys he has faced since dropping, not to mention Siver was unable to finish either Pham or Nunes. Siver is always gonna be that mid level guy that beats everyone else except the upper echelon of the division. Swanson has reinvented himself and become a monster since the Lamas fight and I honestly think Siver is a step down in class from what Cub has been facing of late. Cubs only losses are to the top 3 in the division and I don't see Siver anywhere near those guys level and I've also seen Cub evolve since those fights. I very rarely lay above -200 on a straight play but am leaning towards doing so here. IMO, Cub is in another class than Siver and I think he knocks him out in the 2nd round.
Love seeing you on Weidman, I took on all the guys at MMA torch when they had a Roundtable regarding this fight. But don't understand the Siver play at all. My thoughts and plays are generally in line with yours(except in the case of Smith/Whittaker) ;) and while Siver has looked good since dropping to 45, Swanson is a monster jump in class compared to the guys he has faced since dropping, not to mention Siver was unable to finish either Pham or Nunes. Siver is always gonna be that mid level guy that beats everyone else except the upper echelon of the division. Swanson has reinvented himself and become a monster since the Lamas fight and I honestly think Siver is a step down in class from what Cub has been facing of late. Cubs only losses are to the top 3 in the division and I don't see Siver anywhere near those guys level and I've also seen Cub evolve since those fights. I very rarely lay above -200 on a straight play but am leaning towards doing so here. IMO, Cub is in another class than Siver and I think he knocks him out in the 2nd round.
I think siver has a good chance and that the odds should be tighter. His stand up is perhaps better
If this fight stays standing, Cub will dominate. Only way for Siver to win is to take Cub down, but his TDD has greatly improved and Im confident he'll be able to keep it standing.
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Quote Originally Posted by sawman:
I think siver has a good chance and that the odds should be tighter. His stand up is perhaps better
If this fight stays standing, Cub will dominate. Only way for Siver to win is to take Cub down, but his TDD has greatly improved and Im confident he'll be able to keep it standing.
If this fight stays standing, Cub will dominate. Only way for Siver to win is to take Cub down, but his TDD has greatly improved and Im confident he'll be able to keep it standing.
There are not many fighters better at getting back up after being put down than Cub. But I have mad respect for MR219...???????
gl all
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Quote Originally Posted by Gimmmethatjuice:
If this fight stays standing, Cub will dominate. Only way for Siver to win is to take Cub down, but his TDD has greatly improved and Im confident he'll be able to keep it standing.
There are not many fighters better at getting back up after being put down than Cub. But I have mad respect for MR219...???????
1. Parlay of Norman Parke over Kazuki Tokudome and Frankie Edgar over Charles Oliveira. Risking 5.85 units to win 5 units.
2. Chris Weidman over Anderson Silva. I risked 2 at +200 and 2 more at +195, so the total play is risking 4 units to win 7.9 units.
3. Weidman - Silva over 2.5 rounds (+115). Risking 2 units to win 2.3 units.
4. Edgar - Oliveira over 2.5 rounds (-117). Risking 2.35 units to win 2 units.
5. Tim Boetsch (+110) over Mark Munoz. Risking 2 units to win 2.2 units.
6. Denis Siver (+200) over Cub Swanson. Risking 2 units to win 4 units.
7. Chris Leben (+140) over Andrew Craig. Risking 2 units to win 2.8 units.
8. Parlay of Mike Pierce over David Mitchell, Seth Baczynski over Brian Melancon, and Edson Barboza over Rafaello Oliveira. Risking 3.6 units to win 3 units.
9. Parlay of Gabriel Gonzaga over Dave Herman and Tim Kennedy over Roger Gracie. Risking 1.9 units to win 2.6 units.
10. Chris Weidman by Decision (+650). Risking 1 unit to win 6.5 units.
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Updated Card:
1. Parlay of Norman Parke over Kazuki Tokudome and Frankie Edgar over Charles Oliveira. Risking 5.85 units to win 5 units.
2. Chris Weidman over Anderson Silva. I risked 2 at +200 and 2 more at +195, so the total play is risking 4 units to win 7.9 units.
3. Weidman - Silva over 2.5 rounds (+115). Risking 2 units to win 2.3 units.
4. Edgar - Oliveira over 2.5 rounds (-117). Risking 2.35 units to win 2 units.
5. Tim Boetsch (+110) over Mark Munoz. Risking 2 units to win 2.2 units.
6. Denis Siver (+200) over Cub Swanson. Risking 2 units to win 4 units.
7. Chris Leben (+140) over Andrew Craig. Risking 2 units to win 2.8 units.
8. Parlay of Mike Pierce over David Mitchell, Seth Baczynski over Brian Melancon, and Edson Barboza over Rafaello Oliveira. Risking 3.6 units to win 3 units.
9. Parlay of Gabriel Gonzaga over Dave Herman and Tim Kennedy over Roger Gracie. Risking 1.9 units to win 2.6 units.
10. Chris Weidman by Decision (+650). Risking 1 unit to win 6.5 units.
Love seeing you on Weidman, I took on all the guys at MMA torch when they had a Roundtable regarding this fight. But don't understand the Siver play at all. My thoughts and plays are generally in line with yours(except in the case of Smith/Whittaker) ;) and while Siver has looked good since dropping to 45, Swanson is a monster jump in class compared to the guys he has faced since dropping, not to mention Siver was unable to finish either Pham or Nunes. Siver is always gonna be that mid level guy that beats everyone else except the upper echelon of the division. Swanson has reinvented himself and become a monster since the Lamas fight and I honestly think Siver is a step down in class from what Cub has been facing of late. Cubs only losses are to the top 3 in the division and I don't see Siver anywhere near those guys level and I've also seen Cub evolve since those fights. I very rarely lay above -200 on a straight play but am leaning towards doing so here. IMO, Cub is in another class than Siver and I think he knocks him out in the 2nd round.
I think you are giving Cub Swanson a lot more credit than he deserves. Although he beat Poirer, it was a very close fight that could have gone either way. He knocked out a fragile minded Oliveira impressively, but was losing the fight against Pearson before knocking him out. Knocking out George Roop is nothing to brag about either (despite Roop's recent resurgence).
Knocking Denis Siver because he did not finish Nam Phan or Diego Nunes is silly, as Nunes has never been finished in his career, and Phan has never been finished by anyone in the UFC.
I agree that Swanson will be Siver's toughest challenge at 145. However, what I think this fight will come down to is Siver's smarter fight IQ, and the diversity of this attack versus Cub Swanson's inability to stick to a game plan and his mostly one dimensional brawl/box style.
I see this fight playing out similarly to Siver's fight against Diego Nunes, where Siver was able to dictate the pace of the fight and kept Nunes off balance as he never knew what was coming at him next. Siver's got a good chin, and I think he will be able to wear Cub down as the fight progresses, earning a decision.
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Quote Originally Posted by Gimmmethatjuice:
Love seeing you on Weidman, I took on all the guys at MMA torch when they had a Roundtable regarding this fight. But don't understand the Siver play at all. My thoughts and plays are generally in line with yours(except in the case of Smith/Whittaker) ;) and while Siver has looked good since dropping to 45, Swanson is a monster jump in class compared to the guys he has faced since dropping, not to mention Siver was unable to finish either Pham or Nunes. Siver is always gonna be that mid level guy that beats everyone else except the upper echelon of the division. Swanson has reinvented himself and become a monster since the Lamas fight and I honestly think Siver is a step down in class from what Cub has been facing of late. Cubs only losses are to the top 3 in the division and I don't see Siver anywhere near those guys level and I've also seen Cub evolve since those fights. I very rarely lay above -200 on a straight play but am leaning towards doing so here. IMO, Cub is in another class than Siver and I think he knocks him out in the 2nd round.
I think you are giving Cub Swanson a lot more credit than he deserves. Although he beat Poirer, it was a very close fight that could have gone either way. He knocked out a fragile minded Oliveira impressively, but was losing the fight against Pearson before knocking him out. Knocking out George Roop is nothing to brag about either (despite Roop's recent resurgence).
Knocking Denis Siver because he did not finish Nam Phan or Diego Nunes is silly, as Nunes has never been finished in his career, and Phan has never been finished by anyone in the UFC.
I agree that Swanson will be Siver's toughest challenge at 145. However, what I think this fight will come down to is Siver's smarter fight IQ, and the diversity of this attack versus Cub Swanson's inability to stick to a game plan and his mostly one dimensional brawl/box style.
I see this fight playing out similarly to Siver's fight against Diego Nunes, where Siver was able to dictate the pace of the fight and kept Nunes off balance as he never knew what was coming at him next. Siver's got a good chin, and I think he will be able to wear Cub down as the fight progresses, earning a decision.
If this fight stays standing, Cub will dominate. Only way for Siver to win is to take Cub down, but his TDD has greatly improved and Im confident he'll be able to keep it standing.
Like I said earlier, you are giving Cub Swanson far too much credit. Siver is the better all around technical striker. I agree that Cub has more power, but that is about it.
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Quote Originally Posted by Gimmmethatjuice:
If this fight stays standing, Cub will dominate. Only way for Siver to win is to take Cub down, but his TDD has greatly improved and Im confident he'll be able to keep it standing.
Like I said earlier, you are giving Cub Swanson far too much credit. Siver is the better all around technical striker. I agree that Cub has more power, but that is about it.
I do think this is a very winnable fight for Leben. Andrew Craig is very mediocre. He is very lucky to have two UFC wins. He was losing the fight to Noke before Noke injured his knee. Craig was getting completely outclassed on the feet by Natal before Natal got too cocky and got caught. No one should get out classed on their feet by Natal. If Craig stands and bangs like he did against Natal, Leben is going to knock him out. I don't think Craig has the ability to take Leben down and hold him down.
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I do think this is a very winnable fight for Leben. Andrew Craig is very mediocre. He is very lucky to have two UFC wins. He was losing the fight to Noke before Noke injured his knee. Craig was getting completely outclassed on the feet by Natal before Natal got too cocky and got caught. No one should get out classed on their feet by Natal. If Craig stands and bangs like he did against Natal, Leben is going to knock him out. I don't think Craig has the ability to take Leben down and hold him down.
That has been his downfall his entire career, even within the victories over Pearson and Porier.
Hopefully, Siver cashes!
You say I'm giving him too much credit and I don't think you're giving him nearly enough. I guess one of us will be forced to change our stance on him very soon. He definitely did not abandon the game plan against Poirer and that's what resulted in the W. He was picking him apart on the feet, Poirer had a nice 2nd because of a takedown but Cub did what he had too to win the 3rd. I took Poirer in that fight because I felt the same way about Cub that you do now but I think you too will have a different opinion after this fight as after watching him against Poirer I think he is without a doubt top 5 in the division, while Siver will never be top 5 no matter how many times he drops. Siver has better leg kicks but its not even remotely close when it comes to boxing and that will be the difference. Good luck with the rest of your card though, lets go Weidman!!
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Quote Originally Posted by MR219:
That has been his downfall his entire career, even within the victories over Pearson and Porier.
Hopefully, Siver cashes!
You say I'm giving him too much credit and I don't think you're giving him nearly enough. I guess one of us will be forced to change our stance on him very soon. He definitely did not abandon the game plan against Poirer and that's what resulted in the W. He was picking him apart on the feet, Poirer had a nice 2nd because of a takedown but Cub did what he had too to win the 3rd. I took Poirer in that fight because I felt the same way about Cub that you do now but I think you too will have a different opinion after this fight as after watching him against Poirer I think he is without a doubt top 5 in the division, while Siver will never be top 5 no matter how many times he drops. Siver has better leg kicks but its not even remotely close when it comes to boxing and that will be the difference. Good luck with the rest of your card though, lets go Weidman!!
You say I'm giving him too much credit and I don't think you're giving him nearly enough. I guess one of us will be forced to change our stance on him very soon. He definitely did not abandon the game plan against Poirer and that's what resulted in the W. He was picking him apart on the feet, Poirer had a nice 2nd because of a takedown but Cub did what he had too to win the 3rd. I took Poirer in that fight because I felt the same way about Cub that you do now but I think you too will have a different opinion after this fight as after watching him against Poirer I think he is without a doubt top 5 in the division, while Siver will never be top 5 no matter how many times he drops. Siver has better leg kicks but its not even remotely close when it comes to boxing and that will be the difference. Good luck with the rest of your card though, lets go Weidman!!
Nice call on Cub. The first round went the way I thought the entire fight would go, but Cub really turned it on in the 2nd and 3rd. Well done...
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Quote Originally Posted by Gimmmethatjuice:
You say I'm giving him too much credit and I don't think you're giving him nearly enough. I guess one of us will be forced to change our stance on him very soon. He definitely did not abandon the game plan against Poirer and that's what resulted in the W. He was picking him apart on the feet, Poirer had a nice 2nd because of a takedown but Cub did what he had too to win the 3rd. I took Poirer in that fight because I felt the same way about Cub that you do now but I think you too will have a different opinion after this fight as after watching him against Poirer I think he is without a doubt top 5 in the division, while Siver will never be top 5 no matter how many times he drops. Siver has better leg kicks but its not even remotely close when it comes to boxing and that will be the difference. Good luck with the rest of your card though, lets go Weidman!!
Nice call on Cub. The first round went the way I thought the entire fight would go, but Cub really turned it on in the 2nd and 3rd. Well done...
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