UFC 165: Jones vs. Gustafsson Prediction Party

Predictions
Last Event: 6 - 5
YTD: 136 - 79
2012: 111 - 56


Jon Jones   vs.   Alexander Gustafsson  
Main Event | Title Fight | Light Heavyweight | 205 lbs (93.0 kg)

Hate him or love him we are currently getting a chance to watch one of the greatest fighters/athleres of our generation in Jon Jones. Jones is going for his 7th title defense of the light heavy weight crown, this would be a new record, surpassing Tito Ortiz? The crazy part is the kid is only 26 and seems to be getting better each fight, the title defenses have come against top notch fighters, fighters that Jones has made look pedestrian at best when their in the cage with him. He has dominated the likes of Chael Sonnen, Rashad Evans, Machida, Shogun, Bader. The only time I can remember Jones being in true trouble was the desperation arm bar thrown up by Vitor that broke Jones arm, three things in that sequence impressed me, 1st Vitor's slick transition to the arm bar, 2nd Jones ability to defend and eventually not tap and get out of the arm bar that was locked in and being wrenched by a legitimate long time black belt, 3rd Jones ability to put the pain aside and get business done, I still don't really like the Kid but he has all of my respect.

I've focused on Jones here mainly because I don't think Gustafsson is going to win this fight, actually I don't see any avenue for him to win short of going balls out and catching Jon on the feet. That being said Gustafsson is a competent striker and grappler, his wrestling could be better but he is working on it. Gustafsson is still young himself at 26 and I think that will be part of the problem, he won't be ready for what Jones will bring, I think he needs another year or two (3 or so fights) and a hell of a lot more training. Even if Gustafsson finds his range and proves to be the superior striker I feel like Jones can easily out wrestle the Swede.

Prediction - Jon Jones via TKO ground and pound from guard round 4.

Renan Barao   vs.   Eddie Wineland  
Co-Main Event | Title Fight | Bantamweight | 135 lbs (61.2 kg)

Wineland is in over his head here. He is being fast tracked after KOing Scott Jorgensen and going to a split decision with Brad Pickett, weird stuff.

I'm not sure that Barao gets enough credit, he kind of flys under the radar as the 135 champion. People talk about unbeaten streaks and over all records all the time but fail to mention of the most impressive streaks of them all, soak this in. Barao is 26 years old, he has an over-all record of 30 - 1 - 1, his only lose is in his first pro fight to Joao Paulo Rodrigues who is currently 36 - 14 - 2, this puts Barao at a staggering 30 fight win streak. I don't have time to look it up but it must be close to a record.

I think Barao will play a bit on the feet then wrestle and go for the sub, Wineland is most dangerous on his feet obviously and Barao knows this, look for the submission finish.

Prediction - Barao via submission round 2, RNC.

Brendan Schaub   vs.   Matt Mitrione  
Main Card | Heavyweight | 265 lbs (120.2 kg)

Schaub is not totally out of it on the feet here, however he would be better off planting Mitrione on his butt more often than not. Schaub showed a decent duck under double leg against big Lavar, it won't be so easy against Mitrione. Mitrione has a lower stance than Lavar and also stays much lighter on his feet so he can use his foot work and athleticism to stay on the outside and use his gangly 82.5'' reach. Mitrione gives up some power using this strategy but it also makes him much harder to hit and more capable to defense the shot. Kongo found some success in the third round against Mitrione by using the fence to cut Matt off then haul his legs out from under him. Schaub can't match Mitriones foot work but he can match his speed and athleticism, which should be enough to allow Schaub to close the distance, clinch up and work for the take-down. This is not a confident pick nor a fight I will be betting.

Prediction - Schaub via ugly HW decision.

I predict them all if I have time.

I was extremely impressed with brendan schaub gameplan against Johnson. that dude is scary and he handled it like a champ gl bgk

The Jones and Barao fights really arent even worth discussing.  

Be careful though dude.  He executed, but Lavar's TDD is non-existent.  Meathead is big, athletic, and hits like a truck!   All he has to do is touch that chin on Schaub and that's that.  With the line being pretty much a pickem, value is with Mitrione.

Costa Philippou   vs.   Francis Carmont 
Main Card | Middleweight | 185 lbs (83.9 kg)

Costa is light years ahead in terms of technical boxing, we know it, Serra-Longo know it and Carmont-Tristar know it. Capping this fight depends on if you think Carmont can win a decision with his wrestling or wall and stall. I'm not to worried about the size difference as Costa is 4 inches shorter but he is a beefy middleweight and should be able to match Carmont's strength in the clinch. The fact that Costa defeated three really tough wrestlers in his last three fights in Court McGee, Riki Fukuda and Tim Boetsch leads me to beleive he should be able to stuff the shot more often than not. He also finished Boetsch with strikes which is impressive considering it was only the second time in 22 fights that Boetsch had been stopped via strikes.

Prediction - You could say there is some value in Carmont fighting at home as the larger man with the werstling and subs to back up his size, I like the sprawl and brawl game from Costa though, I think he is ready for the clinch/wrestling game and gets the finish in the third round similiar to the Boetsch fight. Costa via TKO strikes late in round 3.

I guess a submission win for Carmont is possible as well, Costa has yet to be finished in his pro career however.

Pat Healy   vs.   Khabib Nurmagomedov 
Main Card | Lightweight | 155 lbs (70.3 kg)

Khabib
Born September 20, 1988 (age 24)
Makhachkala, Dagestan, Russia


Said it before and I'll say it again....Don't bet against dem Dagestanian's don't do it.

I like Healy, and he always seems to win when I have bets against him, I really like Khabib though and he is no joke with wins over Kamal Shalorus, Glesion Tibau, Thiago Tavares and Abel Trujillo.

Also he is kind of good at martial arts..............................

Mixed Martial Artist

• M-1 Global
  • M-1 Selection Championships

• Ultimate Fighting Championship
  • Most Takedowns in UFC history (21 takedowns on 27 attempts) vs. Abel Trujillo.^[12]

Sambo

• World Combat Sambo Federation
  • Combat Sambo World Champion (two-time)^[13]
• Combat Sambo Federation of Russia
  • Combat Sambo Russian National Champion.^[2]

Army hand-to-hand fight

• Russian Union of Martial Arts
  • European "Army Hand-to-Hand Fight" Champion.

Grappling

• NAGA
  • Grappling World Champion 2012.

Pankration

• Pankration Federation Russia
  • European Pankration Champion.

Prediction - Healy is stoppable so the submission win for Khabib is there if he can get it. Khabib via arm bar round 2.

Myles Jury   vs.   Mike Ricci
Preliminary Card | Lightweight | 155 lbs (70.3 kg)

officially on this kids bandwagon


Prediction - Jury via TKO round 2.

Ivan Menjivar   vs.   Wilson Reis  
Preliminary Card | Bantamweight | 135 lbs (61.2 kg)

This is a tough fight to cap with Reis coming in on short notice and making his debut. I haven't seen him fight in a long time, since his days in Bellator and I don't have time to look up his video...hmmmm.

Prediction - dart board here, let's go Menjivar via split decision.

I mentioned the fighting at home as an advantage in my write-ups as well, then I remembered Carmont is actually French, a little more research and you can see he only started fighting in North America in 2011, so yeah, he is not Canadian or really fighting "at home". He just happens to train at Tri-star. His record was only 14 - 7 when he started fighting in Canada/North America, Tri-star has done some good work on him.

The more you know!

Stephen Thompson   vs.   Chris Clements
Preliminary Card | Welterweight | 170 lbs (77.1 kg)

Clements has been out a year, bad news as I think Thompson will be hungry and on point.

Prediction - Thompson via UD.

Mitch Gagnon   vs.   Dustin Kimura  
Preliminary Card | Bantamweight | 135 lbs (61.2 kg)

Two good grapplers, Gagnon is the better wrestler. I don't have a good read on Kimura yet as his last fight was his debut. He did get the win but Chico was winning the stand up and even though it was a terrible game-plan he was able to take Kimura down at will. Kimura missed weight by 4lbs as well for the Camus fight. Probably stay away but I'll take the Canadian.

Prediction - Gagnon via UD.

John Makdessi   vs.   Renee Forte 
Preliminary Card | Lightweight | 155 lbs (70.3 kg)

We have seen little to no ground game from Makdessi so far in the UFC so it will be interesting to see if Forte can get Makdessi down and what kind of scrambles will ensue. I don't know much about Forte and can't re-call much from his last two fights. I guess I am blindly picking Makdessi to keep it on the feet where he should have a large advantage.

Prediction - Makdessi via UD.

Jesse Ronson   vs.   Michel dos Prazeres  
Preliminary Card | Lightweight | 155 lbs (70.3 kg)

Debut and late replacement for Ronson, I am picking against him for those reasons. I wish I had more time to watch video to give some better insight.

Prediction - Tractor via submission round 2.

Alex Caceres   vs.   Roland Delorme  
Preliminary Card | Bantamweight | 135 lbs (61.2 kg)

Prediction - Delorme via submission round 3.

Nandor Guelmino   vs.   Daniel Omielanczuk
Preliminary Card | Heavyweight | 265 lbs (120.2 kg)

Never seen Daniel fight and only saw Nandor get rolled by Josh Barnett. Won't be counting this on my record but let's go with Guelmino via TKO round 1.

thank you crowat for posting your picks and write ups...must be a pain in the *ss but very helpful.

Thank you sir, I actually really enjoy doing it. I just wish I had more time at work/home to look up the fighters I don't know as well.

Plays

Probably just the two parlays for me this event, good luck!

YTD:   +63.5%

3 Team Parlay - Risk 10% to win 5%
(5002) Jon "Bones" Jones -900
(5000) Renan Barao -700
(5022) Myles "Fury" Jury -400


12 Team Parlay Hail Mary - Risk 1.2% to win 345%
(5004) Costas Philippou -190
(5000) Renan Barao -700
(5013) Michel Richard "Trator" dos Prazeres +140
(5017) Mitch Gagnon +130
(5022) Myles "Fury" Jury -400
(5009) "Stunning" Roland Delorme EVEN
(5010) Daniel Omielanczuk -270
(5014) John "The Bull" Makdessi -225
(5020) Ivan "Pride of El Salvador" Menjivar -185
(5006) Khabib "The Eagle" Nurmagomedov -250
(5002) Matt "Meathead" Mitrione -115
(5002) Jon "Bones" Jones -900

My Bellator degenerate parlay, Risking 1%

  6 Team Parlay

(7508) Efrain Escudero -340
(7516) Rick 'Genghis' Hawn -600
(7500) Bubba "The Highlight Kid" Jenkins -1600
(7504) Clifford Starks -350
(7511) Vaughn 'Blud' Anderson +215
(7520) Douglas 'The Phenom' Lima -350