UFC 188 Write-up / Predicitions

Alejandro Perez v. Patrick Williams

Perez is coming off a win in his UFC debut against Jose Quinonez, who himself looked impressive on last week’s Fight Pass prelim fight. This guy’s last 11 fights have all been in different organizations, so he’s clearly an any-time-any-where type of fighter. He was a TUF:LA finalest on team Velasquez. He’s 15-5 in his pro career with a 73.33% finish rate.

Patrick Williams has a meager 7-4 pro record, but has a 85% finish rate on his wins. He is coming off a loss to Chris Beal (KO) in his UFC debut. After getting tagged by Beal, he throw a nasty knee below Beal’s belt and attempted to take the back before Herb Dean stepped in. He repeatedly tried to setup his takedowns with strikes. He landed a nice uppercut on Beal and immediately took him down hard. There were some nasty exchanges in this fight and Williams really didn’t look bad in this loss to the explosive Chris Beal. He got knocked unconscious with a textbook flying knee in the 2nd round.

I like the underdog in this fight. I don’t think Alejandro is on Chris Beals’ level in striking. Williams is the more explosive fighter with an unpredictable style, and good wrestling. I think he lands some great strikes in this fight and turns them into takedowns.

My Pick: Patrick Williams (TKO)

Efrain Escudero v. Drew Dober

Efrain Escudero is coming off back to back decisions in his first 2 fights since being re-signed to the UFC, with a win and a loss in each. He’s come & gone from the UFC a few times, with a total UFC record of 4-5 but with a pro record of 23-9. That really illustrates how he’s dealt with facing tougher competition. He doesn’t often finish, nor get finished, with only 1 of his last 11 fights ending inside the distance.

Drew Dober will be back with a vengeance after one of the worst refs in MMA history handing him a stoppage loss when he was in absolutely no danger. He was in top control when Leandro Silva had his arm around his neck, but wasn’t remotely threatening a choke. In a correct but surprising move, the Brazilian commission overturned the loss to a N/C. Prior to this aweful stoppage, he was coming off a Submission victory over Jamie Varner, which ended his 2 fight losing streak dating back to his UFC debut.

I like Dober in this fight. He’s going to be more motivated than ever and he’s also been looking good in his last 2 fights. I have no faith in Efrain in this, nor any fight.

My Pick: Drew Dober (decision)

Henry Cejudo v. Chico Camus

I’m not writing much here. It’s a waste of time, just like it’s a waste of time for any fighter who enters the Octagaon with Henry Cejudo. He’s the 2008 Olympic Gold winner in freestyle wrestling, and he’s never looked anything less than dominant in the octagon. I find him boring as f*ck to watch, but he’s most certainly going to win and is correctly priced at -1100 odds.

Chico is a fool for taking this fight. He’s lost to fighters who are 1/10th what Cejudo is. The only question here is whether Cejudo can get the first finish of his UFC career?

My Pick: Henry Cejudo to win

Angela Hill v. Tecia Torres

This is a hard fight to pick. Both women are coming off wins in their UFC debuts, and both did so by decision. They’re both undefeated, with Tecia being 5-0 and Angela being 2-0. Both fighters are able to land around 100 strikes if the fight goes the distance. Torres is a 4 time world kickboxing champion and was ranked #1 amateur before turning pro. Hill is a 3 time WKA North American Muay Thai champion.

I’m taking Tecia Torres, as she’s the more experienced fighter and has some notable wins including Paige VanZant, Rose Namajunas and Felice Herrig.

My Pick: Tecia Torres (Decision)

Yair Rodriguez v. Charles Rosa

Yair is 4-1 as a pro and coming off a decision win in his UFC debut against Leonardo Morales in the TUF:LA finale. He was on team Velasquez, so it’s no surprise to see him on this card in his native Mexico. He’s finished half his wins, including 1 KO & 1 Submission. He’s a Taekwondo black belt and looked good in his last fight, which was very close in striking but he set himself apart with takedowns, transitions and submission attempts.

Charles Rosa is a guy that I love. He’s a submission machine, and while he’s a brown belt in BJJ you might confuse him for a black belt. He has a 100% finish rate on his 10 pro wins, which includes 7 Submissions & 3 TKO’s. He lost his UFC debut by decision to Dennis Siver, but bounced back in his last outing to win by submission against Sean Soriano.

This is a great prop bet opportunity. Yair is only a blue belt in BJJ and he’s going to get finished fast by submission. Bet the submission if your book offers it, otherwise take Rosa inside the distance.

My Pick: Charles Rosa (Submission)

Kelvin Gastelum v. Nate Marquardt

Nate Marquardt is now 36 years old and has lost 4 of his last 5 fights, with his last outing ending in a decision loss to Brad Tavares. He’s a BJJ Black Belt and has several BJJ tournament titles, but you wouldn’t know it by watching any of his UFC fights. He started out hot with a 4 win streak upon entering the UFC, but that was a decade ago with his debut in 2005. He beat James Te Huna with an armbar in his last win, but that is sandwiched between losses to Tavares, Lombard, Jake Ellenberger, and Saffiedine.

Kelvin Gastelum is fighting to get back into the UFC’s good graces, after having tremendous issues making weight at 170 and has finally moved (by force) to 185. The UFC matched him up correctly in his new weight class, and the easier weight cut should help him to win decisively. His wrestling is very good, and while he’s coming off a split decision loss to Tyron Woodley, his last win was a R1 submission on Jake Ellenberger. He’s also beat notable guys like Rick Story & Uriah Hall.

My Pick: Kelvin Gastelum (Decision)

Gilbert Melendez v. Eddie Alvarez

This is a great co-main event between two guys I really like. The fight presents a good stylistic matchup between a great wrestler & a great striker.

Melendez went on a monster tear in Strikeforce, winning the title twice and going on to defend it 5 times. His UFC fights have been tough outings. He debuted in a title fight to Benson Henderson, which he lost by split decision. He won a decision over Diego Sanchez to earn his next title shot, which he lost to Anthony Pettis via guillotine choke. No shame in either loss.

Eddie Alvarez has held championship belts in other organizations too, including Reality FC, MFC and Bellator. He lost his UFC debut by decision to Donald Cerrone last September. No shame in that loss either, as he went the distance with one of the best muay thai strikers in the UFC.

I flirted with Eddie as a value bet, but I only see this fight going one way: Gilbert Melendez will use his excellent wrestling to control the fight and dish out plenty of ground & pound. If somehow Alvarez can keep the fight standing, he definitely has a chance in the striking game. But he hasn’t faced an opponent of this caliber yet and he will notch his 2nd loss straight.

My Prediction: Gilbert Melendez (TKO)

Cain Velasquez v. Fabricio Werdum

It’s finally here. I’m so excited for this fight I can hardly contain myself, as the MMA community has been waiting how long?  A year and a half. That’s how long it’s been since Cain last entered the octagon. Put this in persepective: Andrei Arlovsky has gone 4-0 in that same time. But we wait no more, King Cain is finally going to defend the title that he could have easily been stripped of.

Cain Velasquez is 13-1 with 12 of those fights being in the UFC. His lone loss is to Junior Dos Santos, who he went on to beat 2 times after. Sandwiched between those 3 JDS fights are 2 TKO wins over Bigfoot Silva. That’s right, his last 5 fights spamming 2011 to 2013 only included 2 opponents. He finished 11 of his 13 wins by KO or TKO. An absolute freak, who will certainly be a hall of famer no matter what happens from here.

Fabrico Werdum. One of my favorite guys. The best Jiu Jitsu master in the game today, though a casual fan may not know it given only 1 of his current 5 win streak came by submission. That’s because his striking is top level as well.

Alot of people are saying that Cain will make quick work of Werdum and will knock him out in under 2.5. Well Cain has certainly earned that reputation, but I don’t think Werdum is the guy you can make that kind of claim against. His 5 win streak includes other dangerous strikers like Roy Nelson, Travis Browne, and most recently Mark Hunt who he TKO’d. This guy’s chin should not be in question, even in his toughest test of his career. Oh and that Travis Browne fight went to a FIVE ROUND decision. His cardio isn’t that of Cain’s, but this guy has survived dangerous strikers even in championship rounds 4 & 5.

I’m a Jiu Jitsu guy. If you read my write ups, you know that. So it shouldn’t surprise you that I’m on Fabricio Werdum. His striking is very good and his Jiu Jitsu is world class. Cain’s striking is world class, but he has no Jiu Jitsu background. That’s where the scales are tipped.

Cain normally lands strikes in heavy volume, and can easily take down opponents where he can pour on the ground & pound. I honestly would be surprised if he tried to take Fabricio down early, since he knows his opponent and doesn’t want to play to Werdum’s strengths. But at some point, instinct will take over and it will be Cain’s undoing.

I think Fabricio is good enough on the feet to keep the striking game close, and one of these guys will go to the ground eventually and Fabricio will go to work. The fight could end up on the ground due to a knockdown strike, or by takedown. It will happen though.

Whoever wins, it will be inside the distance in this 5 round main event.

My Prediction: Fabricio Werdum (inside the distance)