My 2 month stint at the end of 2015 on here didn't go accordingly to plan, but I'm hoping that with a few weeks off and some time with friends/family for the holidays, I'm revitalized and ready for a fresh start in 2016. I was hoping to do some quick write-ups on the matchups but ran out of time this afternoon. This card appears to be more of a viewing card than a betting card in my opinion, but I believe there are a few fights that pose some value. Can't wait for Lawler/Condit. Good luck to everyone in 2016!
UFC 195
5 Unit Plays M. McDonald + A. Tumenov (-150) B. Ortega (-165) J. Kish + M. McDonald (-125)
3 Unit Play A. Trujllo ITD (+250)
*All plays are made on a scale of 1-10 units
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
My 2 month stint at the end of 2015 on here didn't go accordingly to plan, but I'm hoping that with a few weeks off and some time with friends/family for the holidays, I'm revitalized and ready for a fresh start in 2016. I was hoping to do some quick write-ups on the matchups but ran out of time this afternoon. This card appears to be more of a viewing card than a betting card in my opinion, but I believe there are a few fights that pose some value. Can't wait for Lawler/Condit. Good luck to everyone in 2016!
UFC 195
5 Unit Plays M. McDonald + A. Tumenov (-150) B. Ortega (-165) J. Kish + M. McDonald (-125)
He was landing some great shots all fight, especially to the body. Larkin just chewed that leg up over the course of the fight and it seemed like Tumenov didn't have as much power behind some of those punches later in the fight. I didn't see that being a split decision, though. Larkin pretty much only landed leg kicks throughout the entire fight. I would have preferred the KO/TKO with you. I hate when I have to rely on the incompetent judging.
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He was landing some great shots all fight, especially to the body. Larkin just chewed that leg up over the course of the fight and it seemed like Tumenov didn't have as much power behind some of those punches later in the fight. I didn't see that being a split decision, though. Larkin pretty much only landed leg kicks throughout the entire fight. I would have preferred the KO/TKO with you. I hate when I have to rely on the incompetent judging.
5 Unit Plays M. McDonald + A. Tumenov (-150) B. Ortega (-165) J. Kish + M. McDonald (-125)
3 Unit Play A. Trujllo ITD (+250)
Overall Tonight: 4-0 (+22.5 units)
2016 Record: 4-0 (+22.5 units)
*All plays are made on a scale of 1-10 units
Tonight was exactly what I was looking for to help get things kicked off in the right direction for 2016. Even though I swept the card, I will definitely admit that I was finally on the right end of some good fortune for a change. McDonald looked rusty as hell in his return after a 2 year layoff and was damn near arm-triangled before one of the greatest scrambles/reversals I've ever seen to sink in a RNC victory. Ortega was likely down 2 rounds before pulling off a very nice chain of submissions to grab the win. Even Kish and Tumenov weren't easy wins, with both of them going to decisions. And Trujillo wasn't finding much success in Round 1 before wrapping up a guillotine on the way to the ground while being taken down. Definitely not the ways I predicted nor wanted those fights to go, so I will at least admit that I was fortunate. The way I see it, though, I deserved some positive vibes tonight after a string of rough losses.
And lastly, I can't say it enough. I'm so sick and tired of the incompetent judging that goes on in this sport. These fighters spend countless hours in the gym, in training camp, preparing for these fights, some of which may be their last shot at a title. And to have the judges continuously and consistently screw up the scoring is really heartbreaking to see for some of these guys who deserved a win. I know that the main event was a close fight, but how does Lawler won 3 rounds. Condit outstruck him damn near 4-1 overall too and was constantly throwing. 5Dimes had Condit around -500 heading into the 5th round, which I agreed with. The media sites had 92% of them scoring the fight for Condit and I agree. I know the whole cliche of not leaving it in the hands of the judges, but this is getting ridiculous. You shouldn't have to finish a fighter to win the title. Condit clearly won that fight in my opinion and I thought it was pretty easy to score actually. Anyways, I had no action on that fight, but just felt bad for Condit. It wasn't the only mistake by the judges tonight either. Not sure how Noke lost that fight, Kish getting two 30-27 scores seemed a bit much as well (even though I felt she won the fight and bet on her), and I don't think the Tumenov decision should have been a split. The judges reward Larkin for leg kicks but apparently dismiss all of Condit's? I don't get it. I love that 5Dimes has begun to offer the "Scorecards = No Action" prop, because it at least gives me an option to try to avoid these types of outcomes. But it still sucks to see these constant judging robberies every event it seems. Anyways, enough ranting lol. I swept the card and had a great night. I'll try to just focus on that. See you guys at the next event!
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UFC 195
5 Unit Plays M. McDonald + A. Tumenov (-150) B. Ortega (-165) J. Kish + M. McDonald (-125)
3 Unit Play A. Trujllo ITD (+250)
Overall Tonight: 4-0 (+22.5 units)
2016 Record: 4-0 (+22.5 units)
*All plays are made on a scale of 1-10 units
Tonight was exactly what I was looking for to help get things kicked off in the right direction for 2016. Even though I swept the card, I will definitely admit that I was finally on the right end of some good fortune for a change. McDonald looked rusty as hell in his return after a 2 year layoff and was damn near arm-triangled before one of the greatest scrambles/reversals I've ever seen to sink in a RNC victory. Ortega was likely down 2 rounds before pulling off a very nice chain of submissions to grab the win. Even Kish and Tumenov weren't easy wins, with both of them going to decisions. And Trujillo wasn't finding much success in Round 1 before wrapping up a guillotine on the way to the ground while being taken down. Definitely not the ways I predicted nor wanted those fights to go, so I will at least admit that I was fortunate. The way I see it, though, I deserved some positive vibes tonight after a string of rough losses.
And lastly, I can't say it enough. I'm so sick and tired of the incompetent judging that goes on in this sport. These fighters spend countless hours in the gym, in training camp, preparing for these fights, some of which may be their last shot at a title. And to have the judges continuously and consistently screw up the scoring is really heartbreaking to see for some of these guys who deserved a win. I know that the main event was a close fight, but how does Lawler won 3 rounds. Condit outstruck him damn near 4-1 overall too and was constantly throwing. 5Dimes had Condit around -500 heading into the 5th round, which I agreed with. The media sites had 92% of them scoring the fight for Condit and I agree. I know the whole cliche of not leaving it in the hands of the judges, but this is getting ridiculous. You shouldn't have to finish a fighter to win the title. Condit clearly won that fight in my opinion and I thought it was pretty easy to score actually. Anyways, I had no action on that fight, but just felt bad for Condit. It wasn't the only mistake by the judges tonight either. Not sure how Noke lost that fight, Kish getting two 30-27 scores seemed a bit much as well (even though I felt she won the fight and bet on her), and I don't think the Tumenov decision should have been a split. The judges reward Larkin for leg kicks but apparently dismiss all of Condit's? I don't get it. I love that 5Dimes has begun to offer the "Scorecards = No Action" prop, because it at least gives me an option to try to avoid these types of outcomes. But it still sucks to see these constant judging robberies every event it seems. Anyways, enough ranting lol. I swept the card and had a great night. I'll try to just focus on that. See you guys at the next event!
winning night for both of us, not a sweep on my end but still in the positive.
I may be the only one to think Robbie won that fight but if you score the rounds by aggressiveness, pace, damage, shots landed, I have said before Condits 40 percent attacks are part of the scoring, not the entire thing. Condit nearly gotten knocked out 3 times or more in that fight. Countered countless times.
Anyways maybe fading the public on big fights if the challenger is overhyped yet the defender is more skilled is the move or skip the fight if you lack the edge.
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winning night for both of us, not a sweep on my end but still in the positive.
I may be the only one to think Robbie won that fight but if you score the rounds by aggressiveness, pace, damage, shots landed, I have said before Condits 40 percent attacks are part of the scoring, not the entire thing. Condit nearly gotten knocked out 3 times or more in that fight. Countered countless times.
Anyways maybe fading the public on big fights if the challenger is overhyped yet the defender is more skilled is the move or skip the fight if you lack the edge.
winning night for both of us, not a sweep on my end but still in the positive.
I may be the only one to think Robbie won that fight but if you score the rounds by aggressiveness, pace, damage, shots landed, I have said before Condits 40 percent attacks are part of the scoring, not the entire thing. Condit nearly gotten knocked out 3 times or more in that fight. Countered countless times.
Anyways maybe fading the public on big fights if the challenger is overhyped yet the defender is more skilled is the move or skip the fight if you lack the edge.
This is exactly why I didn't have a wager on the main event. It's fun to sit here and debate and speculate who you think has the edge in that particular fight, but in my opinion, that matchup is about as close as it gets and the odds reflected that in the end. As I stated in my initial post, this card seemed better for viewing rather than betting. A lot of fights that seemed to be toss-ups and not a lot of of heavy favorites. My strategy is to try to only play the fights that I'm most confident in and skip the ones that are iffy. That seems like an obvious strategy but it's actually somewhat difficult to not have action on the majority of the fights sometimes, especially when you watch the whole card. I'm glad I was able to maneuver thru this card and pick out the winners. Still think Condit won that fight though lol.
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Quote Originally Posted by Redwing41:
winning night for both of us, not a sweep on my end but still in the positive.
I may be the only one to think Robbie won that fight but if you score the rounds by aggressiveness, pace, damage, shots landed, I have said before Condits 40 percent attacks are part of the scoring, not the entire thing. Condit nearly gotten knocked out 3 times or more in that fight. Countered countless times.
Anyways maybe fading the public on big fights if the challenger is overhyped yet the defender is more skilled is the move or skip the fight if you lack the edge.
This is exactly why I didn't have a wager on the main event. It's fun to sit here and debate and speculate who you think has the edge in that particular fight, but in my opinion, that matchup is about as close as it gets and the odds reflected that in the end. As I stated in my initial post, this card seemed better for viewing rather than betting. A lot of fights that seemed to be toss-ups and not a lot of of heavy favorites. My strategy is to try to only play the fights that I'm most confident in and skip the ones that are iffy. That seems like an obvious strategy but it's actually somewhat difficult to not have action on the majority of the fights sometimes, especially when you watch the whole card. I'm glad I was able to maneuver thru this card and pick out the winners. Still think Condit won that fight though lol.
A lot of people are saying condit won, maybe because I was watching from Robbies perspective since I bet on him that im seeing different. I will have to rewatch the match. I may be done betting on the belt defender because the odds are usually -150, -200+. Even if the odds drop near -120 its still a 60-40 or 50-50 matchup. Might as well play one roll of roulette with odds like that.
The best time to bet for me, is when you find 3-4 underdogs that are up and comers/ debut, betting against the overhyped fighter.
Nate Diaz vs MJ was a match up I bet on, the line was +320 for Diaz where you can obviously tell by MJ highlights and what he actually brings to the fight that Diaz would out box him.
The bookmakers, handicappers or whatever you want to call them are professionals and know what they are doing. If the fighter is overhyped they know that the line has to reflect that. So you find match ups that have good lines for the underdog who is actually the favourite. Also get close match ups with a slightly better underdog with better odds. Some low rank fighters also get on a lucky streak their odds go up and you have a good bet against them when they face a real competitor. Of course you have to be able to tell if they are the real deal or just on a lucky 3 fight win against low rank opponents with flaws in their game.
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A lot of people are saying condit won, maybe because I was watching from Robbies perspective since I bet on him that im seeing different. I will have to rewatch the match. I may be done betting on the belt defender because the odds are usually -150, -200+. Even if the odds drop near -120 its still a 60-40 or 50-50 matchup. Might as well play one roll of roulette with odds like that.
The best time to bet for me, is when you find 3-4 underdogs that are up and comers/ debut, betting against the overhyped fighter.
Nate Diaz vs MJ was a match up I bet on, the line was +320 for Diaz where you can obviously tell by MJ highlights and what he actually brings to the fight that Diaz would out box him.
The bookmakers, handicappers or whatever you want to call them are professionals and know what they are doing. If the fighter is overhyped they know that the line has to reflect that. So you find match ups that have good lines for the underdog who is actually the favourite. Also get close match ups with a slightly better underdog with better odds. Some low rank fighters also get on a lucky streak their odds go up and you have a good bet against them when they face a real competitor. Of course you have to be able to tell if they are the real deal or just on a lucky 3 fight win against low rank opponents with flaws in their game.
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winning night for both of us, not a sweep on my end but still in the positive. 
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