Posted:
#1
Even though Nate Diaz was a replacement tonight on short notice, it sure
seems like this past week has taken forever to finally get to this
moment. I'm so excited. McGregor is my favorite fighter to watch and
Diaz is one of those fighters that I just love to watch get their butt
kicked. I couldn't have been happier when this fight was announced. I
had some serious concerns about McGregor being able to handle what Dos
Anjos brought to the table, but with him out of the picture for now,
this sets up to be a much better matchup for Conor. The rest of the PPV
is pretty solid, although I feel it lacks a bit in star power compared
to the past PPVs. Regardless, I found a lot of things that I like from a
betting perspective, which hasn't been the case in a long time. Here
are my thoughts on tonight's fights and how I'm betting them:
McGregor vs. Diaz should be great. I've loved the short buildup to this fight, because they both don't give a damn and love talking smack. Conor has absolutely owned Nate in these interviews and it's been hysterical to watch. As far as the matchup goes, obviously McGregor is a sizeable favorite here, and for good reason. He has better footwork, better lateral movement, as well as punching power. Nate tends to plod forward a little bit, using little foot/head movement, and he most certainly doesn't really check leg kicks. However, there are a few unknowns going into this fight. Conor is moving up 25 pounds to a new weight class to fight for the first time. Obviously that allows him to not have to go through a huge cut, but it's definitely something I'm curious to watch. Conor also always had massive height/reach advantages in his previous fights, as he was a huge featherweight. For the first time, he will be fighting a much taller guy, who has just as much reach as him. Nate is also a southpaw, just like Conor, so it will be interesting to see how that affects Conor's tactics. That all being said, Conor still has a lot of advantages here. He will utilize that great lateral movement of his, and keep Nate guessing. It may take him a few minutes to get his timing down, due to Nate having that nice reach, but I think Nate is a bit too predictable and Conor will figure him out soon enough. Nate could have a path to victory if he were to end up getting McGregor to the mat, but Nate's wrestling isn't that great and he likely won't be able to take Conor down. His best chance is to either knock Conor down or catch him in some sort of a scramble. Otherwise, I don't see Nate knocking McGregor out. Nate is a tough dude and can take a punch. I think he will hang in there as long as he possibly can, but eventually Conor will inflict too much damage and the ref will step in. My prediction is Conor by TKO/KO in Round 2.
Tate/Holm should be a good fight. While I don't think Holm got lucky against Rousey, I do think that she did benefit quite a bit from a horrible gameplan for Ronda. Ronda was relentlessly trying to get in the face of Holm and try to out-box her on the feet. And she paid for it. It was almost like Rousey was out there trying to prove that she really does have elite striking. She doesn't. But she's surrounded by a bunch of "yes-men" and an idiot coach, who have her believing she is some great boxer. Maybe against some of the weak competition she had faced in that division, but it doesn't come close to Holm's resume. Tate will likely take a much more cautious approach, trying to keep some distance at first, until eventually testing Holly's takedown defense. Holly's takedown defense held up strong against Rousey, but we didn't really get to see much of a sample size. Tate is pretty darn tough, and I do see a way where she could have some success, if she were to take Holm down. Odds are, however, that Holm keeps Tate at range, picks her apart on the feet, and outpoints her for 5 rounds or scores the KO at some point. I feel very strongly that both women will survive the 1st 5 minutes and we will see a 2nd round. Therefore, I will have several bets that incorporate that premise. I think Holm is the likely winner here, but I don't think it's a "lock" by any means. My prediction is Holm by 5 round decision.
My writeups on the rest of my bets/fights won't be as in-depth as the main/co-main events. Latifi/Villante should be a fight that I see not quite making it the distance. In fact, I don't see this one getting out of the 1st round to be honest. Latifi hits like a freaking sledgehammer (his nickname for a reason) and Villante has poor defense and is extremely hittable. Villante may be able to keep Latifi at bay for a few minutes, but I think Latifi eventually lands a huge KO and puts Gian's lights out. My prediction is Latifi by KO in Round 1.
Thatch/Bahadurzada should be Thatch's fight to lose. Thatch has lose 2 in a row and has been tapped out in both losses. I think this is a nice way of letting Thatch style on an opponent and try to get back in the win column. Thatch does need to avoid the big shot of Bahadurzada, as he does have good power. But Siyar tends to gas easily and I think Thatch will be able to take advantage and probably win inside the distance. My prediction is Thatch by KO in Round 2.
Eric Silva is the perfect example of a guy who either finishes his opponent in the first 5 minutes, or goes on to lose a decision. The guy is aggressive and dangerous early, but tires out and fades late. His opponent in this one is a great matchup for him and I think it leads to an early finish for Silva. There are obvious concerns with Silva, though, as he hasn't fared well outside of Brazil and he looked AWFUL in his last fight against Magny after the new drug tests were in place. There were significant changes in his physique and he wasn't near the explosive guy he was before. However, he looked good at the weigh-ins and I don't think Taleb offers enough of a threat here. My prediction is Silva by submission in Round 1.
Miranda has better striking and movement in his matchup with Guimaraes, and I think that will lead to a KO for him at some point in the fight. He needs to stay away from being stuck up against the fence for 15 minutes or held down by Guimaraes, and I think he will accomplish that. My prediction is Miranda by KO in Round 1.
I'm running out of time, so no more analysis. You can easily see which fighters and what props I like a lot tonight. If your book doesn't offer a few of those props, then utilize the fighters that I've mentioned I'm betting. I'm VERY confident in McGregor tonight. If you don't want to put a lot of your eggs in one basket, then mix and match fighters any way you see fit. It's ultimately your choice. Good luck and enjoy the event if you're able to watch!
McGregor vs. Diaz should be great. I've loved the short buildup to this fight, because they both don't give a damn and love talking smack. Conor has absolutely owned Nate in these interviews and it's been hysterical to watch. As far as the matchup goes, obviously McGregor is a sizeable favorite here, and for good reason. He has better footwork, better lateral movement, as well as punching power. Nate tends to plod forward a little bit, using little foot/head movement, and he most certainly doesn't really check leg kicks. However, there are a few unknowns going into this fight. Conor is moving up 25 pounds to a new weight class to fight for the first time. Obviously that allows him to not have to go through a huge cut, but it's definitely something I'm curious to watch. Conor also always had massive height/reach advantages in his previous fights, as he was a huge featherweight. For the first time, he will be fighting a much taller guy, who has just as much reach as him. Nate is also a southpaw, just like Conor, so it will be interesting to see how that affects Conor's tactics. That all being said, Conor still has a lot of advantages here. He will utilize that great lateral movement of his, and keep Nate guessing. It may take him a few minutes to get his timing down, due to Nate having that nice reach, but I think Nate is a bit too predictable and Conor will figure him out soon enough. Nate could have a path to victory if he were to end up getting McGregor to the mat, but Nate's wrestling isn't that great and he likely won't be able to take Conor down. His best chance is to either knock Conor down or catch him in some sort of a scramble. Otherwise, I don't see Nate knocking McGregor out. Nate is a tough dude and can take a punch. I think he will hang in there as long as he possibly can, but eventually Conor will inflict too much damage and the ref will step in. My prediction is Conor by TKO/KO in Round 2.
Tate/Holm should be a good fight. While I don't think Holm got lucky against Rousey, I do think that she did benefit quite a bit from a horrible gameplan for Ronda. Ronda was relentlessly trying to get in the face of Holm and try to out-box her on the feet. And she paid for it. It was almost like Rousey was out there trying to prove that she really does have elite striking. She doesn't. But she's surrounded by a bunch of "yes-men" and an idiot coach, who have her believing she is some great boxer. Maybe against some of the weak competition she had faced in that division, but it doesn't come close to Holm's resume. Tate will likely take a much more cautious approach, trying to keep some distance at first, until eventually testing Holly's takedown defense. Holly's takedown defense held up strong against Rousey, but we didn't really get to see much of a sample size. Tate is pretty darn tough, and I do see a way where she could have some success, if she were to take Holm down. Odds are, however, that Holm keeps Tate at range, picks her apart on the feet, and outpoints her for 5 rounds or scores the KO at some point. I feel very strongly that both women will survive the 1st 5 minutes and we will see a 2nd round. Therefore, I will have several bets that incorporate that premise. I think Holm is the likely winner here, but I don't think it's a "lock" by any means. My prediction is Holm by 5 round decision.
My writeups on the rest of my bets/fights won't be as in-depth as the main/co-main events. Latifi/Villante should be a fight that I see not quite making it the distance. In fact, I don't see this one getting out of the 1st round to be honest. Latifi hits like a freaking sledgehammer (his nickname for a reason) and Villante has poor defense and is extremely hittable. Villante may be able to keep Latifi at bay for a few minutes, but I think Latifi eventually lands a huge KO and puts Gian's lights out. My prediction is Latifi by KO in Round 1.
Thatch/Bahadurzada should be Thatch's fight to lose. Thatch has lose 2 in a row and has been tapped out in both losses. I think this is a nice way of letting Thatch style on an opponent and try to get back in the win column. Thatch does need to avoid the big shot of Bahadurzada, as he does have good power. But Siyar tends to gas easily and I think Thatch will be able to take advantage and probably win inside the distance. My prediction is Thatch by KO in Round 2.
Eric Silva is the perfect example of a guy who either finishes his opponent in the first 5 minutes, or goes on to lose a decision. The guy is aggressive and dangerous early, but tires out and fades late. His opponent in this one is a great matchup for him and I think it leads to an early finish for Silva. There are obvious concerns with Silva, though, as he hasn't fared well outside of Brazil and he looked AWFUL in his last fight against Magny after the new drug tests were in place. There were significant changes in his physique and he wasn't near the explosive guy he was before. However, he looked good at the weigh-ins and I don't think Taleb offers enough of a threat here. My prediction is Silva by submission in Round 1.
Miranda has better striking and movement in his matchup with Guimaraes, and I think that will lead to a KO for him at some point in the fight. He needs to stay away from being stuck up against the fence for 15 minutes or held down by Guimaraes, and I think he will accomplish that. My prediction is Miranda by KO in Round 1.
I'm running out of time, so no more analysis. You can easily see which fighters and what props I like a lot tonight. If your book doesn't offer a few of those props, then utilize the fighters that I've mentioned I'm betting. I'm VERY confident in McGregor tonight. If you don't want to put a lot of your eggs in one basket, then mix and match fighters any way you see fit. It's ultimately your choice. Good luck and enjoy the event if you're able to watch!
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