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UFC 218

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Posted: #1
UFC FN 122 Results: +3.94 Units. Profit 8 of 10 fights bet.


Drakkar Klose +160 (4 Units)

Parlay (-118): Ngannou Inside Distance -185 & Reyes -500 (2 Units)
Parlay (+113): Ngannou -220 & Reyes Inside Distance -215 (2 Units)


Bunch more to come...
 
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Posted: #2
Early Prelims:


1. Magana vs Cooper

Hope Magana gets her behind kicked.  Line went from -325 to -495 for Cooper.  Price is insane for a lower UFC level Strawweight fight.  Cooper by Sub, though, is interesting.  I'll bite.

Cooper by Submission +220 (1 Unit)

2. Crowder vs Willis

Both of these fighters can bang.  Should be a fun fight.  I like Willis in this fight, but not willing to lay -225 or put it in a parlay.  Going to pass on a wager and just hope to see a good fight.

3.  Kimball vs Reyes

Line opened at -400.  That seems like a great price for Reyes.  Even at -550 right now, it's probably worth it, but I just don't lay juice on straight wagers like that.  Reyes is way better than Kimball in every aspect.  I do not think this goes past the 1st.  Don't blink.

Avg Fight Time for Kimball: 1:54
Avg Fight Time for Reyes: 0:29

Fight Won't Start Round 2 +120 (1 Unit)
Reyes Wins in Round 1 +135 (1 Unit)
Reyes Wins in Round 2 +360 (0.3 Units)

4. Alhassan vs Homasi

Line opened at Alhassan -230 and moved to -250.  I don't really understand this line.  I haven't really seen much out of Alhassan to warrant him being a -250 favorite in this fight.  He has tools, but it hasn't hit yet.  I'm a little worried about Homasi's chin, but I love what I saw at the weigh-in.  Homasi looked way bigger and had a more intimidating presence.  I think Homasi has to try to take Alhassan to the ground, win two of the three rounds, and take a decision.  Homasi has KO power too, but I think it just may be difficult to finish Alhassan.  If Alhassan KO's Homasi, so be it, but I think Homasi is great value here.

Homasi wins by Decision +610 (1 Unit)
Homasi Wins Inside Distance +350 (0.3 Units)
 
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Posted: #3
FS1 Prelims:



5. Casey vs Herrig

I'm excited for this fight.  Herrig has looked great in her last 3 fights, but she has done so as the underdog.  She opened at -155 and it's been bet down to -125.  I think the action on Casey makes sense.  Gun to my head, I pick Casey in this fight, but it's way too close to call.  At +135, Casey would've been interesting, but +105, I'll pass.


6. Klose vs Teymur

I love watching Klose fight.  He is so well-rounded.  Striking, Wrestling, Grappling.  He grinds his opponents out.  He grinded a huge +200 win vs Diakase in July that really impressed me.   I thought Diakase would win that fight.  Teymur is a beast on the feet and had an impressive +300 win vs Lando Vannata.  I just don't feel this is a good matchup for Teymur.  Klose has more ways to win this fight.  I think Klose by decision has a great chance.

Klose +160 (4 Units)
Klose Wins by Decision +230 (1 Unit)
Klose Wins in Round 2 +1700 (0.2 Units)
Klose Wins in Round 3 +2600 (0.2 Units)
Teymur Wins by TKO/KO +260 (0.5 Units)


7. Medeiros vs Oliveira

Oliveira opened at -185 and got bet to -265.  I would not lay this juice, but the line move makes sense.  Madeiros is on the cusp of being a good fighter, but just doesn't have enough to get him over the hump.  I think Oliveira is clearly the better fighter.  He has a lot of ways to win this fight, has beaten better competition, and I think he gets it done tonight.  Medeiros has been a favorite 5 times and won all 5 of those fights.  He has been an underdog 5 times and lost 4 of those fights.  I'm going to pass because of the price and don't know which way Oliveira wins to make a prop bet.

8. Oliveira vs Felder

This is another great fight.  Felder is a beast on the feet and is a massive Lightweight, but I worry about the competition he has faced compared to Oliveira.  Felder opened at -140, and now it's Oliveira -125.  I think this line makes more sense and wish I got Oliveira at + money.  I don't think this fight goes to decision.  That price is -260 and I believe there's only two ways a finish occurs, so betting two props to get a better price that the fight won't go to decision.

Oliveira Wins by Submission +225 (1 Unit)
Felder Wins by TKO/KO +200 (1 Unit)
 
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Posted: #4
Main Card:


9. Waterson vs Torres

Torres opened at -170 and has been bet up to -245.  I just think that price is ridiculous for this fight.  That is the type of price you give a fighter when the opponent really has no ways to win.  Waterson has plenty of ways to win this fight.  Will she?  I'm not sure, but I am sure that there is great value that she can pull something off.  Torres finally had her first pro finish in her last fight.  If Torres grinds out Waterson to a decision win then so be it, but I'm taking my chance on the + money.

Waterson +215 (1 Unit)
Waterson Wins by Submission +850 (0.5 Units)


10. Alvarez vs Gaethje

I love Gaethje in this fight, but not laying that juice.  Gaethje has the speed, power, wrestling, and durability advantage in this fight.  All around, I believe Gaethje is the better fighter.  That being said, I like a few props I'll be wagering on.

Gaethje Wins Inside Distance -110 (2 Units)
Gaethje Wins by Decision +470 (0.2 Units)
Gaethje Wins in Round 1 +225 (0.5 Units)
Gaethje Wins in Round 2 +425 (1 Unit)
Gaethje Wins in Round 3 +1050 (0.2 Units)


11. Pettis vs Cejudo

Cejudo bet from -245 to -310.  Most people from what I've been reading believe this will probably be an easy win for Cejudo.  I think those people are nuts.  Besides the fact that Pettis has the height and reach advantage, especially the 5 inch reach advantage, I believe there are other factors into picking Pettis tonight.  Cejudo recently went through a traumatic experience in the California fires.  Go watch his recent interviews about it to understand.  He burnt his feet and said he couldn't train for a few weeks.  He also has been talking about this incident and basically has a built in excuse for why he could lose this fight.  He also said he owed it to Pettis to take this fight because he pulled out of their last attempt at a fight with his hand injury.  Cejudo looked horrible at the weigh in and I don't believe his head is 100% in this fight which is a recipe for disaster.  People may think I'm looking into this way too much, but I think the edge favors Pettis.  He is super focused, wanted this fight, and I think he pulls the upset.  

Pettis +265 (2 Units)
Pettis Wins by Decision +400 (1 Unit)
Pettis Wins in Round 1 +1400 (0.2 Units)
Pettis Wins in Round 2 +1750 (0.1 Units)
Pettis Wins in Round 3 +2500 (0.1 Units)
Cejudo Wins by TKO/KO +450 (0.2 Units)
 
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Posted: #5
Main Card Part 2:



12. Overeem vs Ngannou

I have been on this Ngannou hype train since his debut fight two years ago.  I laid the -140 vs Henrique, took the + Money vs Blaydes and then bet him to win the next 3 inside distance and in 1st round.  Tonight, I have a bunch more riding on Ngannou.  I made the two parlay wagers in post #1, also didn't post it, but parlayed him ML with O'Malley last night, and will bet a few props.  I will definitely backup with a few small Overeem bets because of the caliber of fighter he is, but I believe it's Ngannou's time and will get it done.

Parlay (-118): Ngannou Inside Distance -185 & Reyes -500 (2 Units)
Parlay (+113): Ngannou -220 & Reyes Inside Distance -215 (2 Units)
Ngannou Wins in Round 1 +135 (1 Unit)
Ngannou Wins in Round 2 +500 (0.2 Units)
Ngannou Wins by Decision +800 (0.2 Units)
Overeem Wins in Round 2 +850 (0.2 Units)
Overeem Wins in Round 3 +1700 (0.1 Units)
Overeem Wins by Decision +500 (0.4 Units)



13. Aldo vs (C) Holloway

Holloway opened -255 and has been bet to -300.  One thing I am not doing tonight is betting against Holloway.  However, laying -300 against a fighter that has never been lower than a +105 underdog doesn't make much sense to me.  Aldo made the excuse of having a knee injury in their first fight and vows to use his kicks more this fight.  I really don't care about the kicking more than if his knee healing was better for his cardio.  Aldo was gassed mid 3rd of the 1st fight.  If his cardio is better, maybe he can survive the five rounds.  If he looks like he did against Edgar at 200, he may even have a shot to win the title back.  I just don't see it tonight.  They both looked weak at the weigh in, but Aldo looked way worse.  I have a feeling this fight stretches out a bit longer this time, but believe Holloway finishes him late.

Fight Starts Round 4 -115 (1 Unit)
Holloway Wins in Round 3 +550 (0.2 Units)
Holloway Wins in Round 4 +830 (0.2 Units)
Holloway Wins in Round 5 +1220 (0.1 Units)
Aldo Wins by TKO/KO +900 (0.2 Units)
 
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Posted: #6
Gl tonight papa
 
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Posted: #7
Cooper by Submission +220 (1 Unit)

Reyes/Kimball Won't Start Round 2 +120 (1 Unit)
Reyes Wins in Round 1 +135 (1 Unit)
Reyes Wins in Round 2 +360 (0.3 Units)

Homasi wins by Decision +610 (1 Unit)
Homasi Wins Inside Distance +350 (0.3 Units)

Klose +160 (4 Units)
Klose Wins by Decision +230 (1 Unit)
Klose Wins in Round 2 +1700 (0.2 Units)
Klose Wins in Round 3 +2600 (0.2 Units)
Teymur Wins by TKO/KO +260 (0.5 Units)

Oliveira Wins by Submission +225 (1 Unit)
Felder Wins by TKO/KO +200 (1 Unit)
 
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Posted: #8
Waterson +215 (1 Unit)
Waterson Wins by Submission +850 (0.5 Units)

Gaethje Wins Inside Distance -110 (2 Units)
Gaethje Wins by Decision +470 (0.2 Units)
Gaethje Wins in Round 1 +225 (0.5 Units)
Gaethje Wins in Round 2 +425 (1 Unit)
Gaethje Wins in Round 3 +1050 (0.2 Units)

Pettis +265 (2 Units)
Pettis Wins by Decision +400 (1 Unit)
Pettis Wins in Round 1 +1400 (0.2 Units)
Pettis Wins in Round 2 +1750 (0.1 Units)
Pettis Wins in Round 3 +2500 (0.1 Units)
Cejudo Wins by TKO/KO +450 (0.2 Units)
 
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Posted: #9
Parlay (-118): Ngannou Inside Distance -185 & Reyes -500 (2 Units)
Parlay (+113): Ngannou -220 & Reyes Inside Distance -215 (2 Units)
Ngannou Wins in Round 1 +135 (1 Unit)
Ngannou Wins in Round 2 +500 (0.2 Units)
Ngannou Wins by Decision +800 (0.2 Units)
Overeem Wins in Round 2 +850 (0.2 Units)
Overeem Wins in Round 3 +1700 (0.1 Units)
Overeem Wins by Decision +500 (0.4 Units)

Aldo/Holloway Starts Round 4 -115 (1 Unit)
Holloway Wins in Round 3 +550 (0.2 Units)
Holloway Wins in Round 4 +830 (0.2 Units)
Holloway Wins in Round 5 +1220 (0.1 Units)
Aldo Wins by TKO/KO +900 (0.2 Units)
 
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Posted: #10
jaybucko, thanks boss.  GL to you too.  
 
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Posted: #11
GL PS-Like the card and agree with you on Ngannou dont see how he gets out of that fight without the suspect chin of overeem going night night.

GL to us!
 
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Posted: #12
mikesomoney, good luck man.  Really hope Ngannou gets it done.  Ngannou vs Stipe is a $$$$$$$$$$$$$$ fight.  
 
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Posted: #13
I really liked seeing your quick viewpoint on each fight and justification for your wagers or passes in each. A much greater value to the forum than most that just post plays with no reasoning. I know you do that sometimes too and I realize how much time/effort it takes to type it all up (I used to do it as well).

I agree with several of your takes (Reyes/Gaethje/N'Gannou). I am already playing the Felder/Oliveira fight the EXACT same way as you, so that felt good to see someone sees it going down the same as me. I do like Cejudo but some of what you said with the distractions/focus do raise some good points. I'm not sure I had that factored in, so I may adjust my wagers on that one a bit. I also like Max and think he gets a late finish again as well.

Seems like a bit of a chalky card tonight but with several favorites that probably shouldn't be as pricey as they are. Should make for some great fights. Hopefully this is something you might continue to type up in the future for PPVs at least, if you have the time. I think everyone appreciates it. Good luck and hope you kill it!
 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by J-MoneyMaker:

I really liked seeing your quick viewpoint on each fight and justification for your wagers or passes in each. A much greater value to the forum than most that just post plays with no reasoning. I know you do that sometimes too and I realize how much time/effort it takes to type it all up (I used to do it as well).

I agree with several of your takes (Reyes/Gaethje/N'Gannou). I am already playing the Felder/Oliveira fight the EXACT same way as you, so that felt good to see someone sees it going down the same as me. I do like Cejudo but some of what you said with the distractions/focus do raise some good points. I'm not sure I had that factored in, so I may adjust my wagers on that one a bit. I also like Max and think he gets a late finish again as well.

Seems like a bit of a chalky card tonight but with several favorites that probably shouldn't be as pricey as they are. Should make for some great fights. Hopefully this is something you might continue to type up in the future for PPVs at least, if you have the time. I think everyone appreciates it. Good luck and hope you kill it!

  Definitely won't be able to do it for every card, but I'll try for the PPVs.  Good luck tonight.  
 
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Posted: #15
 
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Posted: #16
Quote Originally Posted by PapaShango:

Main Card Part 2:



12. Overeem vs Ngannou

I have been on this Ngannou hype train since his debut fight two years ago.  I laid the -140 vs Henrique, took the + Money vs Blaydes and then bet him to win the next 3 inside distance and in 1st round.  Tonight, I have a bunch more riding on Ngannou.  I made the two parlay wagers in post #1, also didn't post it, but parlayed him ML with O'Malley last night, and will bet a few props.  I will definitely backup with a few small Overeem bets because of the caliber of fighter he is, but I believe it's Ngannou's time and will get it done.

Parlay (-118): Ngannou Inside Distance -185 & Reyes -500 (2 Units)
Parlay (+113): Ngannou -220 & Reyes Inside Distance -215 (2 Units)
Ngannou Wins in Round 1 +135 (1 Unit)
Ngannou Wins in Round 2 +500 (0.2 Units)
Ngannou Wins by Decision +800 (0.2 Units)
Overeem Wins in Round 2 +850 (0.2 Units)
Overeem Wins in Round 3 +1700 (0.1 Units)
Overeem Wins by Decision +500 (0.4 Units)





Like JMoneymaker I appreciate your write up. I reevaluated my Overeem bet and changed it to Ngannou.  I was under the impression that the more experienced Overeem would exploit Ngannou but I youtubed Ngannou, realized he is even stronger than Overeem and Overeem can have a weak chin. 

I liked your Pettis write up but I just couldnt pull the trigger. I liked and didn't like that Pettis has won the majority of his fights by decision, Seems like Cej hasnt been using his olympic caliber wrestling to beat his opponents which leads me to believe Pettis can keep the fight off the ground and use his reach to somewhat control Cej, but that;s all bro science.

Thanks for the write ups! GL
 
 
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Posted: #17
Rough Night: -11.05 Units


Took some risks on a few fights and didn't pay off.  On to the next one...
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