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UFC 238 (Cejudo vs Moraes)

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Posted: #1
L56 UFC cards: +76.86 Units   (Avg +1.37 Units per Card)
 
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Early Prelims (UFC Fight Pass)

Lewis -3.5 +110 (3 Units)

Hill +180 (1 Unit)
Hill Wins by Decision +250 (0.5 Units)


Prelims (ESPN)

Sterling -135 (4 Units)
Munhoz Wins in Round 1 +580 (0.7 Units)
Munhoz Wins in Round 2 +750 (0.3 Units)

Ansaroff Wins by Decision +600 (1 Unit)
Ansaroff +3.5 +290 (2 Units)
Ansaroff Wins by Submission +2500 (0.5 Units)
Ansaroff Wins by TKO/KO +2700 (0.2 Units)
Suarez Wins in Round 3 +900 (0.3 Units)


Main Card (PPV)

Rivera Wins by Decision +420 (0.5 Units)
Rivera Wins by TKO/KO +1100 (0.5 Units)
Rivera +3.5 +155 (2 Units)

Shevchenko Wins by Decision +125 (2 Units)
Shevchenko Wins by Submission +220 (0.5 Unit)
 
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Few thoughts on fights I'm not betting.

Cejudo/Moraes
-I think there's great value on Cejudo at + money but the extra 10 lbs + this possible rumored knee injury gives me pause to bet it.  I wanted at least +150 to take a crack.  Going to just watch a great fight.  Both fighters have made me some good $ recently.

Cowboys/Ferguson
-Two of my favorite fighters in UFC.  I've bet against Cowboy recently and have been burned, so I'm not laying money against him tonight.  And I'm not betting against Ferguson because this seems like such a close matchup to me.  The value is probably on Cowboy because Tony can get super sloppy in there and Cowboy is so technical, but the pressure Tony will put on Cowboy will be ruthless.  Maybe I'll bet something live during this but going to sit back and watch a war.

Tuivasa/Ivanov
-Both fighters have made me money in past.  I lean Tuivasa because he looks like he's in much better shape than usual but staying away.

Kowalkiewicz/Grasso
-I think Karolina could be on the way out and Grasso is hungrier, but she's coming off some injuries and Karolina is the better technical fighters.  Lean Grasso but no bet.

Lamas/Kattar
-Lamas is a live dog, but Kattar looked so much bigger than Lamas at staredown.  Lamas has more paths to victory so I don't want to lay this on Kattar.  This is a huge fight for Kattar as Lamas is a gatekeeper for that division.  We'll see if the younger fighter can step up and prove he's upper echelon of division.

Wineland/Popov
-Popov 35 year old making UFC debut.  Not touching that and Wineland has to be on his way out so definitely not laying that juice.  Stay away.

Chookagian/Calderwood
-I leaned Chookagian but don't feel like praying for a close decision win.  Stay away.
 
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Few thoughts on fights I bet

Shevchenko/Eye
-Eye is extremely durable but just doesn't have the skills to match up with Valentina.   I think Shevchenko cruises to a decision win with the exception of a possible sub which is what I'm hedging with.  Love the + money on win by decision.

Rivera/Yan
-Everyone all on the Yan train and with good measure but I think Rivera is WAY undervalued in this fight.  I bet against him vs Aljo and Moraes.  Thought those were horrible matchups for him.  I don't think Yan is on their level yet.  He's lost rounds in the UFC.  Rivera having the reach advantage is a huge component of this fight, something he didn't have against Aljo and Moraes.  I think Rivera will be able to hang on the feet and he has great wrestling if Yan tries to take him down.  Love the value with Rivera.  Yan could make me look dumb, but think Rivera is locked in for this one.

Ansaroff/Suarez
-Similar thing in this fight as the previous.  The hype train all aboard for Suarez.  She's a really good fighter, obviously has amazing wrestling, and has blown through most of her competition.  Ansaroff has continued to be disrespected by oddsmakers.  She was +240 and beat Gadelha pretty handily.  Now she is well over +500.  Crazy, IMO.  I think she can at least win a round which means the +3.5 +290 has amazing value.  I don't believe she gets finished but if Suarez is as good as everyone says she is, maybe she gets it done.  Too much value on Ansaroff for me to pass.

Sterling/Munhoz
-Aljo too fast, too long, too good right now for Munhoz.  I think Aljo beats him in almost every way but there will now always be worry about his chin after what Moraes did to him.  Aljo is on fire right now and I believe Munhoz only path is by winning in the 1st and possibly 2nd.  I think Aljo controls the pace and wins an easy decision.

Hill/Yan
-Hill has fought way better competition and love what I'm hearing during her interviews.  This line has gone way too high and think there's great value on Hill who has the reach in this fight.  

Lewis/Stewart
-Lewis burned me last time after dominating 2 rounds vs Hall and then getting clipped and finished in the 3rd.  I don't see that happening this time vs Stewart.  That was Lewis first UFC fight, not including DWCS.  He has 5 inches of reach on Stewart and looked MASSIVE at the staredown.   I think Lewis does whatever he wants in there vs Stewart and win this easy decision or finishes him. 
 
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Posted: #5

GL TONIGHT an_cheers

 
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Posted: #6
Papa your handicapping skills in so many different sports is amazing. Thanks for sharing.
 
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Posted: #7

Great write up! Thanks!

 
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Posted: #8
MDV
 
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Posted: #10

Curious to know what Lewis -3.5 means? Is it points?

Thanks for the work peace_5

 
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Posted: #11
Cejudo's odds at +137 I wonder if his knee 'bump' is more serious I don't get someone with Cejudo's credentials and his last two wins be such a dog.
 
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Posted: #12
Early Prelims (UFC Fight Pass)

-4.50 Units


Prelims (ESPN)

+6.80 Units


Main Card (PPV)

Rivera Wins by Decision +420 (0.5 Units)
Rivera Wins by TKO/KO +1100 (0.5 Units)
Rivera +3.5 +155 (2 Units)

Shevchenko Wins by Decision +125 (2 Units)
Shevchenko Wins by Submission +220 (0.5 Unit)
 
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Posted: #13
unlucky on that rivera decision. don't see how 1 judge didnt give him the 3rd
 
 
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Posted: #14
tony just broke that guys face
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