UFC 251 (Usman vs Burns)

That's fair I guess, although I don't think my analysis was that off. In regards to post 22 your wrong, Jorge's Instagram followers were under a million before that knee, shot to 1.5 million a month after that fight, hardcore fans knew him but he became a household name after that fight. I watched the Askren v. lawler fight 3 times he got lucky, from somehow surviving the first two minutes to the early stoppage, Lawler beats him 9/10 times and he did retire two fights after that. I've also made serious coin betting against Pettis the last couple years he's not an elite fighter and I'm not just looking at his record, they threw him cowboy and he barely snuck away with that win. I'm also well aware of the transitive property and how it's not entirely applicable to sports but after watching both Usman and Jorge fight maia it's fair to assess that Usman handled him much easier. I never once said Jorge was undeserving or a scrub for that matter, but people are talking like jorge will walk through Usman, 1 because Jorge is much more popular, and B because Usman is a boring fighter. Not to mention Jorge has to cut 22lbs in 4 days and was eating pizza today, probably just a joke but still. If you like Jorge in this fight I respect that as your a great MMA capper, however like I previously stated I think Usman wins.

I think the only way Usman wins this is a lot of clinch work against the fence and wrestling. I say that he does it for 5 rounds and wins by dec. 

GL Papa  

Well the line is down 70 points to -240 now serious cash coming in on Jorge. Your either right and Masvidal drops him or the public are walking into a slaughterhouse

Jorge Masvidal definetly has a chance to upset Usman in my opinion. The guy is gonna be in great shape I expect and is motivated like crazy to kill usman if has a chance. The guy lost fights in the past but he surely is fighting the best he has fought his whole career in the UFC and Usman wants to stand and bang with him it sounds like and that is a bad idea for him to do. If he stands and trades punches he will lose by ko, if he takes him down and controls the fight its a decision victory for Usman. I think he is a smart fighter and likely winner but if he decides to stand and throw punches with Masvidal I think Masvidal will tko him. 

Papa...Thanks for the Info....really leaning heavily to Masvidal now..

Let's see if any news happens before fight night....

I'm on Jorge KO in round 1 or 2 along with over 3.5 rounds as hedge for Usman wrestle fucking. What you think? Never liked the props until you showed the way. 

Usman does not stand and strike with guys, I think that colby fight was an outlier. I see a clear path to victory for Usman and that's slamming jorge down for out muscling him on the ground. Kinda like khabib v. dustin style fight 

Here’s to hoping Marty has/wants to stand and bang

I dont think there is any way Usman plans to actually stand and bang with Jorge. It may sell PPVs and if he starts out the fight that way, Jorge may relax thinking the fight is going to be in his style.

Usman eventually has got to get the fight to the ground, I don't think clinching Jorge against the fence is all that safe, he would be in danger of a short distance shot. He wants and needs to be on top, grinding away and removing any danger from Jorge.

I like one of the props someone mentioned above, Jorge early KO hedged with over 3.5. That looks plausible both ways, which of course means Usman KO early or Jorge KO early in Round 3 once I put money down lol.

Like Rose, but dont like #s, that fight will likely be a props only fight. Yan, I feel good about his chances to finish this, am I wrong in thinking that the chances of a tko/ko would increase as guys get a bit tired, hurt, sloppy? No one knows how their camps and training were, it is a lot of travel and a weird situation.

The #s for ex Yan finishes in round 3, round 4 round 5 keep going up. It may be worth sprinkling a bit over,those instead of putting a full unit on 1 outcome. If I am seeing this wrong, please someone let me know what I am missing.

More as we get closer to the fights, I almost never bet on fights until day of, too much can happen.

Cheers,

Manowarfan1

Davey Grant vs Martin Day

Grant +140 (*)
Grant Wins by Submission +900 (1/2*)

Raulian Paiva vs Zhalgas Zhumagulov

Fight Won't go Distance +205 (**)
Under 2.5 +240 (**)
Fight Won't Start Round 2 +465 (*)

Marcin Tybura vs Maxim Grishin

Tybura -115 (****)
Tybura Wins Inside Distance +375 (1/2*)
Tybura Wins by Submission +1650 (*)

Leonardo Santos vs Roman Bogatov

Fight Won't go Distance +115 (***)
Fight Won't Start Round 3 +170 (*)
Santos Wins by Submission +260 (1/2*)

Makwan Amirkhani vs Danny Henry

Amirkhani Wins in Round 1 +350 (**)
Amirkhani Wins in Round 2 +525 (*)
Amirkhani Wins in Round 3 +1000 (1/5*)

Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos vs Muslim Salikhov

Zaleski +120 (****)
Zaleski Wins by Submission +420 (*1/2)

Jessica Andrade vs Rose Namajunas

Fight Won't go Distance +105 (**)
Under 2.5 +125 (*)
Namajunas Wins Inside Distance +170 (*)

Jorge Masvidal vs Kamaru Usman

Masvidal Wins in Round 1 +650 (1/2*)
Masvidal Wins in Round 2 +850 (*)
Masvidal Wins in Round 3 +1350 (*)
Masvidal Wins in Round 4 +2300 (1/2*)

I have a lot of those same props, especially on Masvidal.

What is your thinking on Zaleski? It should be a close fight, but I was leaning Salikhov. Are you throwing that Submission win in there just because the # is so good that if it hits, you have steak for dinner? What did I overlook on this fight?

Rose, you have me thinking again. I figured this one to go to a decision. If someone is ahead, they can just move around to get to the judges (of course, you never know what you will get there). So, with it being only 3 rounds, do they just go for it, hope their conditioning and training was better than the opponent? Rose probably had more resources available to her for things like distance/video training but in this day and age facetime or zoom will get it done. Damn, wasnt betting on Rose just because of the big -number, but wanted a couple of props. Her by TKO/KO and submission are both nice #s, as are the Round 2,3 #s. Dang, this could be a really good card. 

Good luck all,

Manowarfan1

Wait, Razor Ramon is your brother?? like brother brother??? haha he was my idol when i was a little kid!

U like Jorge and Aldo also?

you going to be posting any other plays? appreciate the picks as always

Does Scott hall, Kevin Nash, and Shawn waltman know that you spend the Majority of your time on covers? Lmao... I get it, my brother (some of you know him as Donnie trump)  wasn’t too mad when I was hanging with Steve Jobs... what a clown

Wanna stop by and say BOL Papa keep up the good work. As for Razor Ramon I used see and talk to him on a monthly basis here in Orlando near Chuluota Fl. and see him as much as I see Shaquille O’Neal. The last time I spoke to him he was buying dip for a friend. He Is one nice guy and humble. Those were some awesome days seeing him in the ring!