Wells vs Mathetha
Opening fight, and this one is full of question marks. Wells won his UFC debut back in June. Before that, he was on a 2 year layoff. Wells is an average striker who has solid power. He uses his wild power shot's too set up his take down attempts. He has solid BJJ and when on the ground, he is pretty solid. He has solid transitions & control and is very capable of controlling and submitting an inexperienced opponent. In comes Matheta. Blood Diamond, crazy nickname. He is only 3-0 in his MMA career. He has plenty of kick boxing matches, but not much in terms of MMA. He does train with some of the best fighters, but how will that translate come Saturday night? If Wells is smart I'm sure he will try and mix in take downs early, so it will be interesting too see how Mathetha reacts. Too many unanswered questions in this fight, so I will most likely pass on this match up.
Morozov vs Andrade
Interesting match up here. Andrade comes into this fight with a ton of experience against top talent in the UFC. He is a solid striker with good power in his hands. He likes too get inside the pocket and exchange shots and make the fight dirty. He is not scared to absorb shot's too return some of his own. He also has solid kicks. He is capable on the ground, but his preference in my opinion is his boxing. In comes Morozov who is 1-1 since joining the UFC, and he has held up great in both those fights. Yes he did lose 1 of those matches, but looked OK against a very tough opponent. He is a busy fighter with solid pressure & movement. He has good counter punching and times his shot's very well. He averages 4 take downs per fight & has some very nice entries. I anticipate him mixing in his striking & eventually work in take downs and control Andrade on the ground. I Like Morozov by decision at +150.
Dobson vs Malkoun
This should be exciting. Dobson is making his official UFC debut after an impressive contender series win back in September. Dobson is a very aggressive striker with fast hands and legit power. He is not afraid too march forward and throw combinations and get in the face of his opponent and overwhelm them. He is solid enough on the ground, but his strength is 100% his striking & speed. Malkoun is 1-1 in the UFC. He isn't an overwhelming fighter, but is solid in all areas. He is a decent striker, with looping power shots and has solid grappling. I think in this match up he will need that grappling & wrestling too slow down Dobson. The fact that Dobson has shown his willingness too fight aggressive and not get gun shy, I'm leaning towards him too finish this inside the distance & +135.
Ulberg vs Cherant
Another fun match up here. Ulberg is another fighter training at city kickboxing on this card. He is an experienced kick boxer who has only 6 MMA fights in his career. He made his UFC debut last year and looked solid until he gassed and got KOd in the 2nd round. His striking was very crisp in that fight, but failed to do any legit damage too his opponent, which raises questions about his power? He did throw a wild amount of strikes in that fight, which obviously played a part in his cardio, so I would assume a more conservative and selective approach in his fight. In comes Cherant who is 0-2 since joining the UFC. Mind you, his first two fights were not easy. He is a very athletic fighter for his size. He fights with a solid pace, and has solid power & good kicks. If he manages too get the fight too the ground he does have solid wrestling, but his take downs are nothing too fear. I think Cherant will look too mix things up and get Ulberg too the mat, where he will have the advantage, but can he succeed in doing so? I expect a more conservative/technical approach from both fighters, who are both looking for their first UFC win. I like over 1.5 rounds at +120.
Moicano vs Hernandez
This should be a close match up. Both guys coming off victories & will look too keep things rolling. Moicano has fought some of the very best, and has a lot of experience against top talent. His losses come against some very good opponents. He is a technical striker with solid grappling. He doesn't have a lot of power behind his strikes, but his technique and volume make up for it. He has good BJJ and is always a threat on the ground for a submission. Hernandez is very talented. His problem since joining the UFC is consistency. He has alternated wins/losses in his last 6 fights, and can't seem too string things together. Talent isn't the issue. He has clean boxing with very good movement & he is very athletic. He is at his best when he uses his striking too set up his wrestling. When he becomes one dimensional is when he gets picked apart. I think in this match up he has the power advantage and the wrestling advantage & if he uses them together he has serious value at +155. I will be backing the dog in this fight.
Lawrence vs Martinez
Classic case of striker vs wrestler. Lawrence will look too wrestle Martinez from start too finish. Lawrence in his last match up had 8 take downs. He is a chain wrestler who will look for take downs all fight. He also has great movement and solid kicks which helps him set up his take downs nicely. In comes Martinez who is a legit power puncher. He has 1 punch power, and that is always a factor, no matter the opponent. He does switch stances often & that might benefit him and throw off the timing of Lawrence. Can Martinez fight off the take downs & pop back up? That is a tall task, but I think is the true X factor. I'm not sure if I will bet on this fight, but Martinez inside the distance at +600 are some crazy odds.
Grishin vs Knight
Short notice fight for Knight. He is 3-1 since joining the UFC & has improved in each fight. He has clear power and that is very obvious, but his improved cardio & solid wrestling is what makes him a tough opponent for anyone. Yes he is taking this on short notice, but I'm not so sure that is a big factor for someone like Knight, who has made it known he's always in the gym. Grishin is 1-2 since joining the UFC. He is a solid striker who picks his spots and will pounce when he see's an opening. He has solid combinations & when he smells blood he is not scared too chase the finish. I think this will be a solid fight, but if Knight's cardio holds up which it has recently, I like him at + money.
Perez vs Schnell
This is a re booked fight from a couple months ago due too Schnell not being medically cleared. Perez is returning after a year layoff after losing his title shot. Perez is a solid striker with great low kicks that are always a threat. He likes too finish his strikes with a kick at the end, and that is a big weapon of his. He has good movement which is an asset for him & help's set up his take downs. He averages just under 3 per fight which is another set of skills he possess. Schnell is a solid counter striker & that might benefit him against an aggressive opponent like Perez. He has solid BJJ and is always looking for submissions when the opportunity presents himself. I think at +300 Schenll is worth a look if he is healthy. I will most likely wait until weigh ins and see how these fighters look.
O'Neil vs Modafferi
The undefeated O'Neil will look too keep things rolling. She is 3-0 since joining the UFC, with all wins VIA stoppage. O'Neil is a striker & a good one at that. She has solid elbows & decent kicks. She has shown improved wrestling & is legit prospect. At only 24 years old the future is bright for this young talented fighter. On the opposite side we have the retirement fight for the UFC veteran Modafferi. Her strength threw out her career has always been her toughness and her fight IQ, & that is still the case. She is always looking too grapple and slow down her opponent and tie them up against the cage, & I dont see this match up going any different. I see a lot of people betting O'Neil inside the distance at + money, but keep in mind Modafferi hasn't been finished since 2011. I will most likely have O'Neil in a ML parlay, and I will keep an eye on O'Neil too win by decision if i get some good + money.
Arlovski vs Vanderaa
Featured prelim fight. Arlovski at age 43 is still a solid fighter. He is 2-0 in his last 2 matches and has looked solid. He has used his footwork and his fight IQ in these matches and has outpointed his opponents with decision victories. I don't see much changing here. I think the game plan will be similar. He has good striking & his movement and awareness in my opinion will be enough too frustrate and keep Vanderaa at bay. Vanderaa is 1-3 since joining the UFC. He is coming off that bad KO loss back in October of last year. He was primarily known for his grappling, but since joining the UFC, he has been more of a striker. I think if he want's success in this fight, he will have too revert back too his grappling. Easier said then done. He does have a nice jab and some power, but the experience of Arlovski I think will be the difference maker. I like Arlovski by decision in this match up at +150. If you like Vanderaa I would avoid betting him ML & take him inside the distance at +350. The chin of a 43 year old is always a factor.
Green vs Haqparast
Main card opener, and this should be a good one. I keep flip flopping in this match up. Green is a high level striker with volume & pace. He has good head movement which makes him hard too hit & hit clean with any power which makes him hard too inflict damage on. He does have solid wrestling, but its a rare skill set he uses since he's such a good striker. He never seems too slow down & his pace is normally the same from start too finish. In comes Haqparast who is an A+ striker with legit power. He is coming off that loss too Dan Hooker last year, and in that match up he got out wrestled & controlled which was a surprise. Prior too that fight, Haqparast was pretty successful in defending take downs. Will Green use some of his take downs/wrestling? I think it will be smart, but I'm not 100% confident he will. I lean Haqparast at + money with he power advantage, but Green has me flip flopping. I will wait and see how these lines move and continue too ponder this fight.
Phillips vs Rojo
This should have fireworks. Both fighter's have exciting styles. Rojo lost his UFC debut last year, but looked solid in that fight against a very tough opponent & that was up a weight class. He has solid forward pressure with good hands and solid power. He does have good take down defense which he might need in this fight. His offensive wrestling could use some improvements, but he has shown in his career the ability too finish his opponent late in the fight when they get tired & careless & Phillips has shown cardio issues in the past. Phillips was rolling until his last fight. He is a creative striker with a wide variety of attacks. He has great footwork & is always moving which makes it hard for his opponent too time him up. His flaws were evident in his last match up. His cardio faded, and he made some critical mistakes threw out the fight. He does have some good offensive wrestling & he might wan't too use that and balance out his attack against someone as gritty as Rojo. I expect a more conservative & technical fight from Phillips, and the toughness of both fighters have me leaning towards over 2.5 rounds at +130. If your OK with the juice, over 1.5 rounds at -140 is also a safer option that I might explore.
Cannonier vs Brunson
Clash of styles. Brunson comes into this fight winning his last 5. He is a legit wrestler & it's no secret what his game plan will be. He will look for take downs early & often. His striking is OK, but he mainly uses that too set up those take downs. Once he gets on top, he does have heavy top pressure and rarely lets his opponent up, even if he isn't delivering a ton of damage. He has had Chin issues in the past, so against someone with the power of Canonier, it is worth noting. Cannonier is 4-1 in his last 5 , his only loss is against Whittaker. He is a power puncher and has lethal kicks. He does switch stances nicely which throw's off the timing of his opponent which could be a factor in this match up. The X factor in this fight is obvious. Can he defend the take downs? He did in his last match up VS Gastelum, but I believe Brunson is much more of a threat. I don't see an edge betting wise in this fight just yet, so I will most likely pass.
Adesanya vs Whittaker
Short & sweet. I will take the new & improved Whittaker in this match up at +250. Yes Adesanya is elite, yes they have both improved since the last fight. But I think Whittaker has improved more so mentally and physically. I think he will come in with a solid game plan and have Adesanya thinking about take downs and mix in his striking & kicks perfectly. I love the value here.
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