UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier

2021- 73-97 +9.13 units 

YTD 116-171 +66.78 units 

Lost a couple units this past weekend. Left some money on the table with some missed opportunities, but we move on and learn from our mistakes. 

Exciting and stacked card this coming weekend. Should be a really fun night of fights. 

I will post write ups mid week as always, 

GL ALL 

Clark vs Stoliarenko 

Opening fight of the night. Two ladies looking to get back on track. Clark is coming of a submission loss earlier this year. She is a technical striker with solid power in her hands. Although she is coming off a grappling loss in her last fight, she has shown improved grappling of her own in her last few fights, and that shows she is improving as a fighter, which is what you want too see. Stoliarenko is 0-3 since joining the UFC. She is a average fighter who isn't great anywhere. Her main asset is her submission attempts, but her issue is getting the fight to the ground with a very low take down success rate. Her striking is average and she has poor defense on the feet, which leaves her exposed. Against a solid striker like Clark that could be the difference maker in this match up. I lean Clark in this fight with more ways to win. Her striking is much better, and her improved grappling should be enough to secure a victory, as long as she can stay out of harms way on the mat. 

Tavares vs Du Plessis 

Two guys making returns after year long layoffs in what should be a very good fight. Tavares is 2-0 in his last 2, but has only fought 2 times in 2 years. He is a veteran who has fought the very best competition in his career, and his only losses come against top talent in the division. He is a striker with good power and good volume. His take down defense is solid and sits at just under 80% which he might need in this fight. He is tough & gritty and his experience could serve him well in this fight. Du Plessis is 2-0 since joining the UFC, both wins by stoppage. He has a 100% finish rate overall in his career. He is an explosive striker with good power and does a good job at mixing kicks into his attack. He has solid grappling and if he gets on top he has shown very good top pressure, and is always looking for the finish. Both of his wins in the UFC have come in the 1st round and early 2nd round, so if Taveras can survive the early attack it will be interesting to see if  Du Plessis  can keep his pace into the later rounds. I lean Du Plessis as the slight favorite, but the grittiness and experience of Taveras has me second guessing myself. I will wait until later in the week and see how the odds look before making a final decision on this fight. 

Eye vs Barber 

Two ladies trending in opposite directions. Eye is on a 3 fight skid and needs a win here. She is a veteran who has been in the UFC since 2013. She is a solid striker who is very tough and gritty. She thrives when she is able to control the exchanges and bully her opponent, but she struggles when her opponent pushes the pace and is the one controlling the Octagon. Her grappling is solid, but her strength is her striking and toughness & in this fight her best path to victory would be to make this fight ugly early and have Barber second guessing herself. In comes Barber who is riding a 2 fight win streak. She is coming of an impressive decision victory back in April. She is a solid striker with an improving overall skill set. She is only 24 years old, and in her last fight she showed improved take down attempts and solid control. She is a solid prospect, but her one weakness would be her mental game and her ability to deal with adversity during a fight. That is concerning against an experienced veteran like Jessica Eye. I still lean Barber in this fight as I think her improved take downs and wrestling could be the X factor if she finds herself in trouble early. I'm not sure how to bet this fight, but I will monitor this fight and see how it looks on the weekend.  

Hall vs Muniz 

This should be an exciting fight. Hall is coming off a decision loss a year ago. He is a veteran who has solid striking with nice power in his hands. He has a creative striking style but has a tendency to be a little conservative in his striking. He is aging and has lost a step, but with his power he always has a chance in his fights. His take down defense threw out his career has been solid, but in his last fight he got taken down 4 times so that is worrisome against Muniz, who will look to get this too the ground early. Muniz is 4-0 since joining the UFC, his last 3 were submission wins in round 1. He has elite grappling, and that is his strength in all of his fights. His striking is solid and he does have good power behind his punches. He has a big and physical frame, and he uses it well to get his opponent to the ground, and when he does get you down he uses his long limbs and hunts for submissions very quickly. Hall has the experience edge here, but Muniz should be aware of the power that Hall possesses and should have his way in this fight. I will most likely back Muniz, I just have to find the most effective way in doing so. 

Miller vs Cerrone 

Rematch from 2014 in which Cerrone knocked Miller out. Miller is 2-0 in his last 2, both wins by KO. He is an aging veteran with a solid skill set. He has good grappling with decent enough wrestling. His striking is solid, and he has found power in his last 2 fights late in his career. As you would expect he is tough and gritty, and he does a good job at fighting to his strength and his opponents weakness. In come Cerrone who is looking for his first win since 2019. He recently had 2 fights cancelled, both on the day of the fight. He is a striker who mixes in kicks very nicely. He has a creative striking style, and when he finds his timing he can be a very effective striker and mixes in combinations very well. His ground game is solid, and he thrives in scrambles and is very capable to lock up a submission if the opportunity presents itself. I think Miller will be the more prepared fighter so I do lean his side, but at -210 I can't justify those odds right now. I do like the over 1.5 rounds at -140. 

Garry vs Green 

Two prospects looking to keep things going here. Garry is 2-0 since joining the UFC & is coming off a decision win back in April. Garry is good striker with very quick hands and good footwork. He is quick on his feet and has good counter punching. His knock since joining the UFC has been his poor striking defense. He is young so I would assume he makes improvements in each fight, so it will be interesting to see how he looks in this fight. Green is coming off a KO victory back in April, in a fight he was losing until he got the stoppage. He is 2-1 since joining the UFC. He is a grappler with good forward pressure. His striking is solid and he does have power in his hands. He does a good job at mixing in kicks into his attack and is relatively comfortable in all areas of his game. He has a solid ground game and is comfortable working from top or bottom position. Like Garry, his striking defense is poor and absorbs a lot of damage. I'm torn on who to back in this fight, but the poor defense of both fighters has me liking this fight to end inside distance at -110. 

Riddell vs Turner 

Prelim fight of the night, and this should be a good one. Riddell is making his return after a KO loss back in December. He is a very good striker who uses volume as an asset and has solid power. He does have solid grappling and has secured at least 1 take down in each of his UFC fights. He is a capable wrestler, so it will be interesting to see what kind of game plan he comes in with. Turner is riding a 4 fight stoppage win streak. He is big for the division, and will have a significant size advantage in this match up. He does a good job at marching forward and keeping pressure onto his opponent, but with his size, he also does a good job at keeping his distance and range. He has powerful kicks, and has shown some nice grappling improvements in his last few fights. This is a tough fight too call and I'm having a hard time picking a side. I think Riddell will be the more technical striker and has the wrestling advantage, but I think the size and power is on the side of Turner and with his improved grappling has me leaning towards Turner here. I think both of these guys understand just how dangerous they are, and this is a big fight for both guys career trajectory so I think they both come in with a measured approach. Over 2.5 rounds at +110 caught my eye, but I will wait until the weekend to make any final decision on this fight.  

Lawler vs Barberena 

Main card opener. Lawler is returning after his win against Nick Diaz late last year. He is 1-4 in his last 5 fights. He is a technical brawler with power in his hands. He does have solid wrestling, but he prefers to stand and trade punches. He does have solid technique, but sometimes gets caught up in fire fights, which has cost him threw out his career. Regardless he is a fan favorite and you can never count him out of a fight. Barberena is riding a 2 fight decision win streak. He is a come forward striker who uses volume as his best asset. He doesn't have 1 punch power, but his volume and pressure will give his opponent trouble, and his cardio seems to hold up and support his volume based attack.  He does have grappling in his back pocket, but like Lawler he prefers to stand and trade, and I think that is what happens in this fight. I think the volume and pace of Barberena will be the difference maker in this fight in what could be a close decision. I'm not sure I will bet this fight, but Barberena by decision at +250 seems solid. I will wait until later in the week and see how the market looks closer to fight night before making a final decision. 

Munhoz vs O'Malley 

Another fun match up. Munhoz is 0-2 in his last 2 and looks to get back on track. He is a veteran and has fought some of the best competition in his career. He is a solid striker with non stop pressure and loves to push the pace and stay in the face of his opponent. He has deadly kicks, and that could help him in this fight. He does have a solid ground game, but prefers to strike. His forward pressing style does leave him vulnerable, and he has a negative striking differential of 5-6. Against a precise and accurate striker like O'Malley, that could be an issue in this fight. In comes O'Malley who is riding a 3 fight KO win streak. He is 6-1 overall since joining the UFC. He is an elite striker with very good power and accuracy. He is very athletic and has a creative set of attacks. He does have nice kicks and mixes them into his attack nicely. I think this will be O'Malley's hardest fight in his UFC career, but the come forward style of Munhoz could actually benefit the more accurate and powerful O'Malley. I think O'Malley get's the job done, but don't count out the experience and toughness of Munhoz who has never been finished in his career. 

Strickland vs Pereira 

Great fight here. Strickland is riding a 6 fight win streak. He is a volume based striker, who uses his pressure and volume to overwhelm his opponent. He doesn't have huge power, but his jab is stiff and starts too add up as the fight progresses. His take down defense is solid, and his take down offense is much improved. He had 4 take downs in his last fight, and averages just over 1 take down per fight in his UFC career. I think he will need those take downs in this fight so it will be interesting to see how he approaches this fight. In comes Pereira who is 2-0 since joining the UFC. He is a very dangerous kick boxer. He has powerful striking and great body kicks and leg kicks. His strikes are very nicely timed and deliveries everything with power. In his first 2 UFC fights he was taken down, but did show the ability to work back to his feet. In his last fight he also defended some take downs which is encouraging if your looking to back him. In my opinion Strickland is a better grappler then Silva is, but I have to assume Pereira is making improvements in his game. This is a really fun match up, but I lean Pereira as the much better striker, and the more physical fighter who in my opinion benefits from a 3 round fight over a 5 round fight. I will wait until the weekend and see how the odds look, but as of right now I lean Pereira. 

Volkanovski vs Holloway 

Co-main event, and this is the 3rd time these guys will be fighting. Volkanovski is looking to make his 5th title defense, and he is 11-0 overall since joining the UFC. He is a good striker who is very fast and has very solid movement on the feet. He has good kicks and uses very crisp combinations to set up his clean take down attempts. He is smaller for the division but he does a good job at making up for that size with his movement and speed. He has very good fight IQ which is another asset in his wide variety of skills that he has at his disposal. In comes Holloway who is looking to become champion for the 3rd time in his career. Since losing back to back fights to Volk, he has bounced back with 2 solid victories, earning another title shot. He is an elite striker with very good footwork and fluidity on the feet. His volume and pressure is one of his best assets, and he thrives when hes able too keep his high pace. His take down defense is solid at just over 80% overall, and he will need that in this fight. In his last fight he did manage to secure 3 take downs with just over 6 minutes of control time, so that could be a wildcard for him in this fight. Fighting for the 3rd time makes this a hard fight to bet on for me, so I'm not sure how I will approach this fight in terms of betting. I think Max will be hungry for the belt, especially after losing 2 close fights, but his hands will be full and this will be a tough fight to win. I will pass unless I see something on fight night. 

Adesanya vs Cannonier 

Main event. Adesanya is 22-1 overall and looks to keep his title reign going. He is an elite kick boxer with very clean technique. His striking is clean and his counter punching is a real asset for him. He has great head movement which alloys him to stand in the face of his opponent, and return clean counter punches back in return. His take down defense is solid at 76% and his chin has held up just fine in his career, but that could be tested in this fight against a former heavyweight with big power. In comes Cannonier who gets a title shot after going 2-0 in his last 2. He is a former heavyweight fighter who is very powerful for the division. He has solid striking with big power and devastating kicks. He does a good job at switching stances which alloys him to fire back with his kicks that land clean. His grappling is just OK, but that could be an avenue worth exploring if he wants to have success in this fight. Adesanya will be the faster and more technical fighter, but it will be interesting to see how Cannonier decides to approach this fight. Will his kicks be enough to keep Adesanya off balance? Can he implement some grappling and somehow get on top of Adesanya? Those are all fair questions and in my opinion Cannonier's best ways of having success in this fight. Like the co-main I don't have a bet or lean on this fight, but I will monitor these lines as we approach the weekend and make a final decision on Saturday.  

@paletta007

 Not to nitpick but Holloways last two wins were more than solid..

Holloway is going to destroy Volk......

@davemsh

 Lol cmon dave he didnt destroy him in the first one or second one , his last finish that wasnt a decision was in 2018 vs brian ortega .. volk has his number  

@paletta007

 Great write ups ! Looking forward to this card 

i would like Cannonier to beat Izzy but very unlikey , he got beat up by robert whittaker , i dont even think he deserves to be fighting for the title .

Oh no. Drake bet $1 million on Adesanya. Izzy's doomed 

@Brady2Gronk

@davemsh

@royboymiami

@DenverStone

Fantastic work Brother 

Sweep your slate 

@DoubleUp4Life

 Thanks! GL tonight 

@davemsh

 Why do you not like volk? You said zombie had good value when volk fought him last. Volk is going to ruin cte max

I’m having a tough time nailing down any strong plays for tonight’s card. 

I will tread lightly and post picks before each fight. 

GL ALL 

GL today bro!