UFC 276 leans and picks

As always nothing official here, i make my picks on fight night.

Stoliarenko vs. Clark -  Stoliarenko is a tough to bet on since she spends most of her fights on her back looking for submissions.  Clark is coming off a submission loss, but that may actually work against Stoliarenko since Clark will be much more aware in grappling positions.  Clark has been an improving fighter and i expect her to be the stronger fighter too. Jessica Rose Clark ML -172  will likely use in parlay

Eye vs. Barber - Eye was a 'contender' a few years ago, but that was more due to the flyweight division having nothing to offer Valentina.  Eye is mostly a stand-up fighter with no punching power and sloppy defense, pretty much a brawler.  Barber was supposed to be the "next big thing" at one time but a knee injury derailed that and she has returned and not quite looked the same.  Pre-injury her standup was pretty technical and flowed very nicely, but in her recent fights she has looked hesitant and confused.  Eye will bring the fight to her so it'll be interesting to see what happens.  No Lean Barber is around a -265 favorite which is insane, not saying she loses but she isn't worthy of that no matter who she's fighting.

Muniz vs. Hall - striker vs. grappler to the extreme with this matchup.  Hall is a very gifted striker who is still a decent athlete at 37, and possesses power in his punches and kicks.  Muniz is a submission master and has proven it over his last 3 fights, earning 1st round sub victories in all of them.  This fight kind of reminds me of Uriah Hall's fight against Antonio Carlos Junior a few years where Hall defended the submission and a majority of the takedown attempts, while dominating the stand-up earning a decision victory.  My question is does Hall still have the strength and athleticism to fight off the grappling attack from Muniz? No Lean - for some reason i feel like Hall is going to pull this out, but the oddsmakers clearly believe that Muniz is going to get the tap

Tavares vs. Du Plessis - striker vs. striker.  Du Plessis is a kickboxer with...surprising? power.  He has this tight guard/stance that a lot of kickboxers fight with and to me he looks uncomfortable, but i can't argue with his results (16-2 all finishes).  He has a strike-and-move style that looks like he's just trying to touch up and avoid damage, but he carries a lot of pop in his punches.  Tavares is also a talented striker and has a somewhat similar style to Du Plessis.  Tavares does a good job of keeping calm in the cage, and really flows with his strikes so he doesn't wear himself out loading up with big shots.  Du Plessis has some underrated grappling we haven't seen a ton of in the UFC (only 2 fights), but Tavares has pretty good TDD so we'll see how that plays out. Lean - Du Plessis by TKO/KO - he just seems able to shut the lights out on fighters, but this is a tough fight because Tavares has been around the block and then some.  solid match-making

Green vs. Garry - very interesting fight.  Ian Garry is trying to be the next 'Irish Superstar' but i'm not a believer yet.  Gabe Green is pretty solid on the feet AND on the ground and i wonder if Green will try to take the fight there, not that he necessarily needs to.  Both of these guys fight with their hands down way too often, so the best bet may be to take this to NOT GO DISTANCE -110, I really wanted to take Gabe Green, but he gets hit way too much and i'm not sure he's going to be able to get Garry to the mat

Cerrone vs. Miller - Will Cowboy finally get to fight?  I've been auto-fade on Cerrone since that McGregor fight.  I think the chin is gone and maybe he could have gotten away fighting Lauzon, but Jim Miller has looked solid of late on the feet.  Lean - Miller by stoppage +125

Turner vs. Riddell - This could be a really fun one.  Jalin Turner has looked incredible recently by adding a solid takedown/grappling game, and even before that he has always been someone who carries a lot of power on the feet.  He fights at 155, but looks like he could be fighting at 185 on fight night.  Turner will have a distinct size advantage over Riddell too.  Riddell is also a talented striker, and does a great job moving his head and counter striking.  This fight should be on the main, as a few others too, but they put Lawler-Barberena on i guess because they think it will be a slugfest.  Lean - Brad Riddell ML +134 - I just feel like Riddell is the tougher guy and i really like his counter-striking even as the shorter fighter.  It's a really tough fight because these guys could be throwing the kitchen sink at one another or it could be a staring contest if they respect each other's power too much.  I'd usually take the longer/taller fighter in this matchup, but i like Riddell to possibly get a finish of his own.

O' Malley vs. Munhoz - This is that longer/taller striker matchup i was just talking about where i really like the longer/taller fighter.  Munhoz is a solid fighter with a well-rounded offense who may be wise to try and grapple here. O' Malley has great boxing for an mma fighter and while his hands are highly respected, to me it's his defense that gives other fighters problems.  O' Malley has great head movement and footwork to elude damage and keeps opponents at distance, but he also uses kicks to chop at the legs to keep his guy at distance too.  His kicking is really underrated.  Lean - Sean O' Malley ML - i think this one sees the final bell because Munhoz is pretty tough, and i think SOM will try to keep the distance and pick apart at range. Might put him in a parlay

Lawler vs. Barberena - Lawler is way past his prime and idk if Barberena ever had a prime, but he's got age on his side here.  I expect this to turn into a brawl and 5 years ago i'd likely trust Lawler to win that fight 10 out of 10, but i just can't trust him here. Bryan Barberena ML +100  depends on how i feel at fight time, but this is most likely a no bet.

Strickland vs. Pereira - On most PPV's there are matches dubbed "the people's fight" and i think this is that scrap.  Strickland is a wild cat outside the ring, love him or hate him, but you have to respect his boxing inside the cage.  His has solid head movement and does a good job rolling with the shots that do land.  Since coming back from injury and moving up to 185, he's been a handful inside the cage.  In order for Strickland to have success in this one, he needs to replicate what he did in the Uriah Hall fight, march forward and stick that jab in Pereira's face and make him fight on the back-foot.  Pereira is a world-renowned kickboxer who is famous for KO'ing MW champ Izzy Adesanya.  Pereira is very long and possess great power and i think he really need to start off with hard calf kicks to negate Strickland's forward movement...Uriah Hall didn't throw nearly enough when he fought strickland. Lean - Sean Strickland ML -105 - I understand the hype around Pereira, but i'm trusting Strickland's smarts and mentality to make this ugly and use his grappling to neutralize Pereira's length.  Could Strickland get KO'd? Absolutely! But i think he grinds out a win to a chorus of boos.

Holloway vs. Volk III - I scored first fight for Volk, 2nd match for Max.  Both were great fights.  Holloway is 0 for 2 vs. Volk, but he is the only guy at featherweight who deserves the title shot right now.  Not much to say here, I think Volk has only gotten better since their last fight and even though Max is only 30, he's already had a great career and has been in some wars. Lean - Volk by decision +115 - should be another great fight.

Adesanya vs. Cannonier - Cannonier was at one time a HW, now fighting for the Middleweight strap.  Cannonier is known for his power punching and i think this is a bad matchup for him since he is such a one-dimensional fighter.  Adesanya has some of the smoothest head movement in the game and i think he picks Cannonier apart until he decides he's had enough.  If Cannonier had a better grappling game then i could see this being a closer fight.  Lean - Adesanya by KO stoppage +145 - will likely put Izzy in a parlay with O' Malley and someone else

GL this weekend 

For Cannonier, this is the biggest fight of his life. There will be no other chance to become champion. In his last three fights Jared has left a lot of damage: against Whittaker he was knocked down and fought with a broken arm, with Gastelum he fought all five rounds, with Brunson he was repeatedly on the verge of defeat and won only on will power.

But there is no doubt that Adesanya will win.

@paletta007

 best wishes bud

@DenverStone

 yeah nothing but respect for Jared Cannonier, he seems like a really good man too, but i think Izzy is just going to dodge and counter him to death.  This will be like the Paulo Costa fight all over again, except Izzy will have a much easier time making him miss.  We shall see though, anything can happen in a cage fight

I'm going with some PFL plays tonight....warning: tread lightly

Vanessa Melo ML +150 - Solid value imo, feel like odds should be flipped. might parlay w/ Umalatov and/or Mokhnatkina.

Obviously i like both Mokhnatkina and Umalatov, but both are over -200...don't see any props with them i like, which is why i'll likely include them in a parlay

Ray Cooper by TKO/KO is -165 - but i really like it.  He is fighting Brett Cooper who likes brawling, but Ray Cooper has a chin of iron and hits like a wrecking ball

also Genah Fabian +350 and Zamzagul Fayzallanova +285 are live dogs

kind of like Macdonald vs. Sy to go the distance, but idk if i'll play it, depends on how other fights go

I got Melo and Mokhnatkina Parlay +266

this is shot, Melo trying to box too much instead of just attacking.  Trying to grapple with Kolesnyk is a mistake too, oh well

Jindrova/Fayzallanova Under 2.5 +165

i got to hand it to Kolesnyk, she looked much improved

Under 2.5 +165

laying off next women's fight

actually, Mokhnatkina by sub +350

she's got incentive to get a finish

Fabian ML +340

GL this weekend my friend 

@The_Fist

 You as well pal 

neighbors got an early start on 4th of July weekend and I joined them so I couldn’t post my final plays for PFL. Went 2-1. Took the Cooper ko prop and sy/Rory to go distance. Lost another prayer on Delano Taylor

Doing a big dumb parlay for UFC: Muniz by sub-Miller by tko/ko/dq- Izzy by tko/ko/dq- O’Malley ML. +2232

Good luck. Let's get some wins today. It's going to be a knock some teeth out Saturday. 

@UglyKidJoe

hope it's going to be a good night for all of us!!!

Here we go, i've flip flopped on a few fights, but feel the same on most others.

Stoliarenko by Sub (+420) fanduel

JRC by points (+120) draftkings

Clark the Austrailian showed she could beat a #20 rank. Stoliarenko showed she could lose to some good ranked opponents. I just didn't put in the time for this week's fight. This weeks picks I'll decide when they're entering the cage. 

GL tonight, let’s make some money 

damn and grabbed Stoli ML +126 during introductions, the line movement was for a reason

@paletta007

off to a good start