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UFC 87 Lineup and thoughts

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Posted: #1

Ultimate Fighting Championship - UFC 87: UFC- 87 - Matchups

Sat 8/9 Georges St Pierre vs Jon Fitch
Maximum Wager: 520.40 CAD
201 Georges St Pierre   -301 Risk  To Win
  202 Jon Fitch   +271 Risk  To Win

Sat 8/9 Kenny Florian vs Roger Huerta
Maximum Wager: 520.40 CAD
203 Kenny Florian   -141 Risk  To Win
  204 Roger Huerta   +131 Risk  To Win

Sat 8/9 Brock Lesnar vs Heath Herring
Maximum Wager: 520.40 CAD
205 Brock Lesnar   -231 Risk  To Win
  206 Heath Herring   +211 Risk  To Win

 
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Posted: #2
Those are the 3 main fights.  Im really liking Florian to beat Huerta at -141.  I think Huerta is really good but Florian is in another class.  Im going to lay some dough on that fight for sure. Huerta is the fan favorite, he was on Sports Illustrated and so on so i think he is line is a little bloated.... Not sure if im going to do it but Heath has a great shot at beating Brock. Im pretty surprised he is so heavily favored over Heath who should not be taken lightly.
 
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Posted: #3
Florian   My bet on Florian will be my biggest fight wager this year.  He is ready for the next level.  Huerta is a stud also but Kenny has improved so much in his stand-up and combine that with his sick BJJ, he is a force.  Florian is relentless and always in attack-mode, I think he takes Huerta down and finishes him with strikes late in the first round (but I've been wrong before).
 
 
I'm not touching the Herring/Lesnar fight.  Heath Herring is a waste of space, but Lesnar is far too inexperienced for me to bet on.  I have no clue how that one is gonna go.  Should be entertaining. 
 
 
 
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Posted: #4
Going with all the favored fighter. Very risky in a UFC fight



Quote Originally Posted by MoneyShot:

Ultimate Fighting Championship - UFC 87: UFC- 87 - Matchups

Sat 8/9 Georges St Pierre vs Jon Fitch
Maximum Wager: 520.40 CAD
201 Georges St Pierre   -301 Risk  To Win
  202 Jon Fitch   +271 Risk  To Win

Sat 8/9 Kenny Florian vs Roger Huerta
Maximum Wager: 520.40 CAD
203 Kenny Florian   -141 Risk  To Win
  204 Roger Huerta   +131 Risk  To Win

Sat 8/9 Brock Lesnar vs Heath Herring
Maximum Wager: 520.40 CAD
205 Brock Lesnar   -231 Risk  To Win
  206 Heath Herring   +211 Risk  To Win

 
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Posted: #5
ufc favorites win  73%.

ufc fighters favored -200 or more have won 93%.

playing favorites is usually pretty smart.
 
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Posted: #6
All the favored are 73% winners??



Since I’ve been betting on mma this is not the case, in ufc it seems like some of the fights are setup also.

I think you should do a little more research; the underdog wins a lot of the time because the odds makers don’t know the fighters.

 

Like the Vera-Verdum Fight: I can’t believe Vera was favored, Verdum is a world champ and Vera just plain sucks.


 
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Posted: #7

Andy????

 

Who said i was going with all the favorites? Im not at all. I just copied and pasted those odds from the pinnacle site.  I would never ever go with just favorites.   My only bet has been on Florian where i put down $400 to win $283.  I was considering putting money on the underdog Herring cause i think the line is inflated for Brock cause he is obviously the fan favorite  but i think i will just stay away from that fight......

 
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Posted: #8
In my opinion, as most good gamblers know that it is usually correct to lean against the public or the fan favorite.  Vegas has to adjust the lines to balance out the wagers so if the public really likes a guy and they wager a lot then the line will move.
 
Vegas tries to have an even line so many times they will overprice certain teams or in this case fighters.  I remember betting on Silva as an underdog vs Rich Franklin in their first fight because I knew that vegas was predicting most people ie the public would think Franklin would win so he was a decent size favorite.   I know Silva would win cause ive seen him fight before and i knew he was very good but a relative unknown in the US.
 
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Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by andyc_90277:

All the favored are 73% winners??



Since I’ve been betting on mma this is not the case, in ufc it seems like some of the fights are setup also.

I think you should do a little more research; the underdog wins a lot of the time because the odds makers don’t know the fighters.

 

Like the Vera-Verdum Fight: I can’t believe Vera was favored, Verdum is a world champ and Vera just plain sucks.


I dont know how long you've been playing mma, but am positive about the numbers.  i have done the research and can point you to the results. 

in the last 363 ufc fights...
  • 99 underdogs have won, thats 27%
  • there have been 28 wins by fighters +200 or higher, that's 7%. 

you are making a mistake if you think the linesmakers are clueless.

I will agree that Werdum should have been favored, he was actually opened at -110 and it was the public that bet him up to +170. 
 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by MoneyShot:

Ultimate Fighting Championship - UFC 87: UFC- 87 - Matchups

Sat 8/9 Georges St Pierre vs Jon Fitch
Maximum Wager: 520.40 CAD
201 Georges St Pierre   -301 Risk  To Win
  202 Jon Fitch   +271 Risk  To Win

Sat 8/9 Kenny Florian vs Roger Huerta
Maximum Wager: 520.40 CAD
203 Kenny Florian   -141 Risk  To Win
  204 Roger Huerta   +131 Risk  To Win

Sat 8/9 Brock Lesnar vs Heath Herring
Maximum Wager: 520.40 CAD
205 Brock Lesnar   -231 Risk  To Win
  206 Heath Herring   +211 Risk  To Win

 
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by laffit:

ufc favorites win  73%.

ufc fighters favored -200 or more have won 93%.

playing favorites is usually pretty smart.


I would love to see a source for this...or a spreadsheet
 
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by MMACapper:



I would love to see a source for this...or a spreadsheet


UFC Stats
 
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Posted: #13
 
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Posted: #14

Quote Originally Posted by GGLeaf055:

lol I copied an pasted the spread from Pinnacle, if i actually bet on someone it would look like this... This is my bet i made on Florian. And if you guys actually read what i wrote in my first post, it said i was thinking of betting on Herring.....

7:06pm 6-Aug-08 7:00pm 9-Aug-08 Future MMA Fight Odds - Ultimate Fighting Champio... -141 400.00 283.69

 

 

 
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Posted: #15
in the last 363 ufc fights...
  • 99 underdogs have won, thats 27%
  • there have been 28 wins by fighters +200 or higher, that's 7%. 

So by betting every favorite fighting against a dog of +200 or more...you would be up big time!!

 

or is my math really bad???

 
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Posted: #16
example with -400 odds:
 
335 wins x 1 unit =    +335 units
28 loss x 4 units =     -112 units
-----------------------------------------------
                                +223 units
 
Does this sound right?
 
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Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by duby:

example with -400 odds:
 
335 wins x 1 unit =    +335 units
28 loss x 4 units =     -112 units
-----------------------------------------------
                                +223 units
 
Does this sound right?
No, thats not right.  you would not have that many wins, because not all of the 335 were favored by more than -260.  the juice is pretty significant on those fights too.

i will go back an look at all the fights with underdogs of +200 or more on Sunday, see if i can come up with something
 
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Posted: #18
Oh yeah thats right...my bad...Thanks for pointing that out laffit
 
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Posted: #19
NO ONE MENTIONED GEORGE"RUSH" ST. PIERRE  I AM AT BOWMANS AND HE IS -350 WHICH SUCKS CUZ I AM GETTING RIPPED OFF...TRUST ME HE IS GOING TO WIN  BUT I SEE OTHER PLACES HE IS -300  IM HOPING HE DROPS ON BOWMANS TO SOMEWHERE NEAR THE -300 MARK SO I CAN POUND IT....MARK MY WORDS  GEORGE ST PIERRE WILL WIN !!!!!!!
 
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Posted: #20

Quote Originally Posted by laffit:

in the last 363 ufc fights...

  • 99 underdogs have won, thats 27%
  • there have been 28 wins by fighters +200 or higher, that's 7%. 

The problem here is you're dividing 28 by 363.  But not all those 363 fights have had a favorite of -240 or more (to make the underdog +200).  So your 7% is useless, unless you can find out how many of those fights carried such a heavy line (not that many i'm sure)

 
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Posted: #21
Laffit, I have not done much research on that site you provided "UFC STATS" yet... but after a quick glance, I can already see obvious errors:
 
UFC 82 was back to business as usual.  The favorites dominated winning 8 of 10 fight, with only a couple of very minor upsets.  $100 bet on each underdog would have cost you -$730.
 
This is clearly an incorrect statement.  HOW is this possible?  Betting on 8 underdogs that lose, 100 a piece is -800.  BY DEFINITION, you have to win over 200 on the 2 winning underdogs, possibly much more if the underdogs were big underdogs.  So You couldnt have lost more than 600
 
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Posted: #22
Another awful job from that site you linked us to....
 
UFC 85 was a huge day for the dogs.  Underdogs have done well recently, raising their overall win ratio from 25% to 27%.  $100 bet on all the dogs would have returned a profit of $680.  $100 bet on all the favorites would have cost you a $593 loss. 
 
IF YOU COULD just bet 100 on all the favorites and lose 593, and then also bet 100 on all the underdogs and win 680.... it would be impossible to lose.  HAHAA the lines are not made to give bettors + juice.  This site is clearly garbage, and cannot be trusted till whoever writes it fixes their obvious errors.
 
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Posted: #23
Unlike other sports like baseball or basketball, you really can't do what's called "MMA Math" (aka MMAth). You need to look at style matchups between fighters. In other words, stats are kind of useless when capping MMA fights.
 
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Posted: #24
WIth you on both Heath, and Ken-Flo.
 
 
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Posted: #25
back on topic,

GSP 2 units
florian 1 unit
herring 1 unit

clean sweep with a little pup love in there for herring.
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