UFC Fight Night 29: Maia vs. Shields Predictions / Plays / Discussion

Maia (6’0) 72” reach

Born in Sao Paulo, Brazil, Maia began training in Judo, Kung Fu and Karate at young age. At the age of 19 (later than most Brazilians) Maia was introduced to Jiu-Jitsu and never looked back. Even though Maia has recently fell in love with his striking and has only one submission win in three years he is still the one of the best (if not the best) BJJ practitioners to enter MMA.  This will be Maia’s fourth fight @ 170, he seems to have found a new home with impressive wins over tough wrestlers/grapplers Jon Fitch, Rick Story and Stun Gun (although Kim was hurt awkwardly early on which in part lead to Maia’s finish). Maia’s only blemishes since 2010 are a hard fought decision loss to Mark Munoz and another tough split decision loss to Champion Chris Weidman.  Maia has brought his striking up to a respectable level, early on he was flat footed and predictable, throwing single shots and rarely committing to combinations, now a days he is much lighter on his feet, has an established Jab to gauge the distance and mixes it up with a straight 1 – 2 down the pipe, he also has a decent body/head kick but could stand to utilize more leg kicks. The way he out wrestled Rick Story and Jon Fitch was pure awesome, we knew Maia had good trips and throws with his Judo background but he was straight shooting on Jon Fitch and power double legging the him to the mat, Maia’s  progression in Wrestling and Striking makes him a seriously Dangerous fighter. He went back to his roots in his last three fights, out-wrestling three good wrestlers and getting it done with his grappling (yes he tko’d Kim but the way he got the clinch on Kim was beautiful) so while Jake Shields is hard to take-down I don’t see any reason why Maia won’t try to impose his will once again.

Shields (6'0) 72'' Reach

Shields began wrestling at age nine and has since competed in over 600 folk, freestyle and submission wrestling matches and is a two time All American wrestler at Cuesta College (DIV 2). He holds a black belt in BJJ under Cesar Gracie and describes is style as “American Jii-jitsu” His first fight in the UFC was against Martin Kapmann, Shields gassed hard in the fight even though he won a split decision; apparently injuries forced him to cut something like 17 pounds in one day which could be true as Shield’s usually has a decent gas tank and is not known for making excuses (I scored the fight for Kapmann). Even though Shields has struggled early on with the cross-over his is still one of the best welterweights and yes even middleweights in the world. Let’s take a quick look at Shields past level of competition, it’s pretty crazy to say the least. Current UFC fighter Milton Vieira back in 2003 (W), Hayato Sakurai (W – UD) Toby Imada (W – UD), Dave Menne (W-UD),  Yushin Okami (W-UD), Carlos Condit (W-UD), Mike Pyle (W-CHOKE), Paul Daley (W-SUB), Robbie Lawler (W-SUB), Dan Henderson, Martin Kappmann, GSP, Jake Ellenberger, Akiyama, Ed Herman (NC) Tyron Woodley (split W).

Prediction - Shields needs to keep this on the feet to win, his top control is good but I would not want to play in Maia's guard for very long. Even if he does keep it standing Maia's progression with his strikes could also give Shields trouble, throw in the home town advantage and it's a tough fight for Jake. Maia via hard fought UD.

Born in Suwon, South Korea, “Stun Gun” is a premier Welterweight fighting in one of the deepest divisions in the UFC. He has been nearly flawless up until recently, Carlos Condit knocked him out with a highlight reel flying knee against the cage, beautiful stuff and Maia was able to close the distance, tie Kim up and finish him with strikes on the ground (we would later find out Kim hurt his chest/shoulder badly when he was tossed by Maia).  At 15 – 2 – 1 Kim has made a name for himself in the UFC by utilizing his long lanky physique, immense physical strength and technical take-downs and grappling.  Kim has distinct style in the cage as he uses his Judo very effectively; he is a master at closing the distance and forcing a ground battle. He holds the rank of 4^th Dan black belt in Judo, making him one of the most decorated judo practitioners in the sport.

Erick Silva (6’0) 74’’ reach

Fighting out of Team Nogueria Silva is the former Jungle Fight Welterweight champion. He is 15 – 3 overall with one of the loses being a DQ to Carlo Prater for punches to the back of the head, while Silva did foul Prater that fight was essentially over anyway and I do not think Silva intended to strike the back of the head, he was caught up trying to finish his second fight in the UFC. Silva blends together his Muay Thai and Jiu Jitsu beautifully, throw in an ever improving wrestling game and his black belt in Judo and you have a very well rounded fighter.  Silva has shown he is susceptible to the duck under power double leg and a few other Wrestling techniques that Fitch and Jason High used, I’m not sure that Kim can utilize the same techniques to get Silva to the floor, even if they are attempted Kim is just not even close in terms of wrestling technique compared to Fitch or Jason High. Kim thrives in the clinch, utilizing the leverage from his 6’2 frame and his 4^th Dan Judo Black belt to bring the fight down, usually with him on top. This fight will be won or lost in the clinch I believe, if Silva can pummel under, turn and separate from Kim consistently I believe Silva will have the edge on the feet due to his power and speed. Kim might be a tad more technical overall with his strikes, and while he does sport 6 wins via KO/TKO, Kim has not finished a fight with strikes since his UFC debut in 2008 vs Jason Tan ( 5 – 3 overall and British).

Agreed my friend,once mommie takes away his foo-foo and he stops getting attention,it will take a full SWAT team to pry him away from watching internet porn in his parent's basement.

PS-GUYS,stop bringing up this idiot.

Plays YTD: +65%

1. 2TP    5%
Mike Pierce -250
Thiago Silva -375


2. Demian Maia vs Jake Shields  5.25%  
(Fight completes 4 full rounds) Yes -125   

That might be it for me.