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UFC Fight Night 38

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@whipthecapper

March 23, 2014 | Ginasio Nelio Dias | Natal, Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil

MAIN CARD
FOX Sports 1, 7 p.m. ET

Dan Henderson vs. Mauricio Rua
C.B. Dollaway vs. Cezar Ferreira
Norman Parke vs. Leonardo Santos
Fabio Maldonado vs. Gian Villante
Michel Prazeres vs. Mairbek Taisumov
Rony Jason vs. Steven Siler

PRELIMINARY CARD
FOX Sports 1, 5 p.m. ET

Diego Brandao vs. Will Chope
Ronny Markes vs. Thiago "Marreta" Santos
Jussier Formiga vs. Scott Jorgensen
Thiago Perpetuo vs. Kenny Robertson

PRELIMINARY CARD
UFC Fight Pass, 4 p.m. ET

Noad Lahat vs. Godofredo Pepey
Francimar Barroso vs. Hans Stringer
 
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Posted: #2
Don't really like much on this card. Might actually sit this one out or just blindly parlay 2-3 favs lol
 
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Posted: #3
i capped 7 of the fights .... i particularly like 2 fighters  
 
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Posted: #4
maybe i'll just tail you lol
 
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Posted: #5
Dan Henderson Vs Shogun
=====================

From a betting stand point I'm not really feeling this fight. You never know which shogun will show up on fight night and as for hendo...well hendo's 43 years old. I don't trust no fighter north of 40 with my money. 

Hendo's on a 3 fight losing streak since his last scrap with shogie. While shogunzo has been fighting at a .500 clip going 2-2 since his hendo fight.

Dan's in his twilight years and I could see him hanging his glove up after this fight win or lose. 

I'm going to roll with the Shogie bear on this one. Light units.

Shogun via KO/TKO Round 4 

My Line
======

Shougun -140
Hendo     +105

Over 3.5 Rounds -180


 
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Posted: #6
never even noticed the shogun/hendo line was already out...

Over 2.5 sign me up

Shogun Rua Vs. Dan Henderson Over 2.5 Rounds (-160) 1.6 Units for 1 Unit
 
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C.B. Dollaway Vs. Cezar Ferreira 
========================

I might be going dog hunting with this one. I know cezar will be the fave going into this fight, but from what I remember when capping this fight awhile ago I like CB's chances in this scrap. 

Blackzillians are on fire right now; why would I bet against "anyone" from that team? cuz thats how i roll. I'm probably over thinking this one, but I have a feeling CB 's wrassling will be the x-factor in this fight. Maintaining top control and steady amount of GnP to lead him to a decision victory.

I'll play CB if his line is greater than +180>

My Line 
======
Cezar ferreira -250
CB Dollaway +190

Over 2.5 Rounds (-150)
 
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Leonardo Santos Vs. Norman Parke
===========================

Grappler vs Striker. Leo needs to take the fight to the ground, but that will only prove to be difficult because parke is a judoka BB and has some awesome TDD. Not only that he light years ahead of Leo in the striking department. 

I expect Parke to be able to keep it a kickboxing match and win via KO in the 2nd.

This is "THE" guy to put your  on

 
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Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by whipton:

Leonardo Santos Vs. Norman Parke
===========================

Grappler vs Striker. Leo needs to take the fight to the ground, but that will only prove to be difficult because parke is a judoka BB and has some awesome TDD. Not only that he light years ahead of Leo in the striking department. 

I expect Parke to be able to keep it a kickboxing match and win via KO in the 2nd.

This is "THE" guy to put your  on


My Line 
=======

Norman Parke         -300>
Leonardo Santos     +265>


 
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Posted: #10
Under 2.5 Rounds +120
 
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Fabio Maldonado vs. Gian Villante
=================================

Tough fight to call. Gian's gameplan better not include standing up with fabio and relentlessly going for TDs. Fabio needs to keep this a stand up fight for obvious reasons. Gian's cardio worries me fighting a guy like fabio who's gas tank is endless.


Training with the champ does not hurt. There's no way Gian can KO/TKO Fab, and I doubt he can sub him. Look for Mr.Villante to expose Fab's TDD and use his GnP to capture the decision win.


My Line
=======

Fabio Maldonado   -120
Gian Villante     +100

Over 2.5 Rounds -165
 
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Posted: #12
im not in a writing no more

siler
diego 
jorgensen
 
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Posted: #13
Dude you are a treasure trove of MMA information consistently coming out with your thoughts before anyone else. Great command of the sport...ty for posting.
 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by Vituperate:

Dude you are a treasure trove of MMA information consistently coming out with your thoughts before anyone else. Great command of the sport...ty for posting.

thanks
 
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Posted: #15
give me a solid 2-3 teamer lol

I was thinking shogun and parke so far
 
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Posted: #16
Quote Originally Posted by Saku39:

give me a solid 2-3 teamer lol

I was thinking shogun and parke so far

parke x diego
 
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Posted: #17
shogun x parke could be the play 

im still confident in diego but coming off a bad weigh in and now finding out he left jacksons. He's now tier 2 material in my mind.

possible parlay of diego x markes 

im curious to see the jorgensen line. i'm tempted to throw him in the tier 2 parlay.


 
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Posted: #18

UFC Fight Night 38 Play

====================

Dan Henderson/Mauricio Rua Over 2½ (-160) 1.6 Units for 1 Unit


Parlay Mauricio Rua (-250) x Norman Parke (-150) 3.75 for 5 Units *wager restriction on opening

Parlay Mauricio Rua (-250) x Norman Parke (-195) 3 for 3.4 Units

Parlay Diego Brandao (-270) x Ronny Markes (-705) x Scott Jorgensen( -210) 2 Units for 2.6 Units 

 
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Posted: #19
I love your confidence in Rua.
 I'm weary of Jorgenson
 
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Posted: #20
Jorgensen is shot. He is slow and he telegraphs everything. I would not trust him in any fight. 
 
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Posted: #21
Yeah I don't have the highest confidence in Scotty either, but I still think he's wins if he can keep the fight standing with his superior wrestling ability. 

in the standup jorgensen >>> formiga
 
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Posted: #22
For now I'm leaning on Parke/Brandao/Markes parlay for +114 odds.
 
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Posted: #23
I really like Shogun as well.  I'd be pretty surprised by a Parke TKO though, good odds on that if you think it'll happen.  Good luck this weekend 
 
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Posted: #24
Quote Originally Posted by whipton:

UFC Fight Night 38 Play

====================

Dan Henderson/Mauricio Rua Over 2½ (-160) 1.6 Units for 1 Unit

Parlay Mauricio Rua (-250) x Norman Parke (-150) 3.75 for 5 Units *wager restriction on opening

Parlay Mauricio Rua (-250) x Norman Parke (-195) 3 for 3.4 Units

Parlay Diego Ronny Markes (-705) x Scott Jorgensen( -210) 2 Units for 1.4 Units 


Brandao off the card.
 
 
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Posted: #25
Quote Originally Posted by Vituperate:

Dude you are a treasure trove of MMA information consistently coming out with your thoughts before anyone else. Great command of the sport...ty for posting.

Second that 
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