UFC Fight Night 61

YTD:
16-9 +$1230

Prop Bets:
0-4 -$330

Parlays:
4-19 +$1606

Current Leans:

Jorge over Shockey
Gibson over Andrade
Olivera over Waldburger
Trator over de la Torre
Macario over Dwyer
Andrade over Reneau
Strickland over Ponzinibbio
Alcantara over Saenz
Khabilov over Martins
Alvey over Ferreira
Barboza over Johnson

Current Plays:
Frank Mir +230 over Antonio Silva

Risking $100 to win $230

Why Mir? Tough fight to call

If Jedi sat and waited, he get more bang for his buck. Nobody is betting Mir in Brazil!!!

Why Mir? I think his striking is a bit faster then Bigfoot, although Bigfoot has the power. I think their BJJ cancels each other out.

N yes, I was debating waiting until fight night to play Mir, hoping the line would jump up more. I may put more on Mir if it jumps up more.

I'm thinking that line might close at 4-1.

Good luck

Thanks guys..

Let's start with my parlays (some of these were put in before the Waldburger fight was called off).

Barboza/Khabilov/Alcantara/Andrade

$200 wins $453

Jorge/Gibson/Waldburger/Macario

$25 wins $106

Mir/Barboza/Strickland/Waldburger

$25 wins $430

Jorge/Gibson/Waldburger/Trator

$25 wins $131

Gibson/Waldburger/Trator/Macario

$25 wins $125

Waldburger/Trator/Macario/Andrade

$25 wins $128

Jorge/Trator/Macario/Andrade

$75 wins $217

Straight Plays:

Ivan Jorge -260 over Josh Shockey
While Shockey is still young, Jorge is a little better all around. Better striking and grappling. Pretty much a loser leaves town fight.

Risking $260 to win $100.

Cody Gibson -260 over Douglas Silva de Andrade
Andrade has some power, but hasn't fought since last Feb. I think the rust effects him more then people think.

Risking $260 to win $100

Tiago Trator -210 over Mike de la Torre
Trator is a great submission guy, where as Torre sucks against submissions, with all four losses coming via submission. That being said, if Torre has worked on his submission defense, Trator could be in for a long night.

Risking $210 to win $100

William Macario -300 over Matt Dwyer
Glad I got this at -300, it's up to -380 at my book now. -300 is usually my limit with straight bets, anything over that I like to parlay with another high favorite. Dwyer was knocked out in his first fight, which is a bad sign considering Macario is a power striker. I believe this will end quickly, as I think Macario can tag him quite easily. I might play a prop on Macario by KO as well if my book offers one.

Risking $300 to win $100

Jessica Andrade -240 over Marion Reneau
Reneau is tough, but Andrade is more aggressive and experienced. I think the mixture of her coming forward and UFC experience will be the difference here.

Risking $240 to win $100

Sean Strickland -170 over Santiago Ponzinibbio
Ponzinibbio has some power, and that's always dangerous. Strickland has the wrestling though and I think he'll be able to control Ponzinibbio on the mat.

Risking $170 to win $100

Iuri Alcantara -600 over Frankie Saenz
Showcase fight for Alcantara. At -600 though, the odds are too steep for me.

Rustam Khabilov -500 over Adriano Martins
Much like Alcantara, this is a showcase fight, made to get Khabilov a win. Too steep odds for my taste though. I would stick Khabilov and Alcantara on a parlay with another pick for a decent parlay though.

Sam Alvey +260 over Cezar Ferreira
Ferreira has gas tank problems and Alvey is tough to knockout. If Ferreira can show improved cardio, I think he wins this easily. That being said, I won't believe it until I see it.

Risking $100 to win $260

Edson Barboza -155 over Michael Johnson
Two great strikers in what many believe to be the best fight on the card. In my opinion, Barboza's leg and body kicks will be the difference. Look for him to use them early and often to sap Johnson's cardio and limit his mobility.

Risking $155 to win $100

Almost all chalk for me, didn't see much underdogs I liked. Hopefully it doesn't comeback to bite me.

Current Card:

Straight Plays:

Ivan Jorge -260 over Josh Shockey

Risking $260 to win $100.

Cody Gibson -260 over Douglas Silva de Andrade

Risking $260 to win $100

Tiago Trator -210 over Mike de la Torre

Risking $210 to win $100

William Macario -300 over Matt Dwyer

Risking $300 to win $100

Jessica Andrade -240 over Marion Reneau

Risking $240 to win $100

Sean Strickland -170 over Santiago Ponzinibbio

Risking $170 to win $100

Sam Alvey +260 over Cezar Ferreira

Risking $100 to win $260

Edson Barboza -155 over Michael Johnson

Risking $155 to win $100

Frank Mir +230 over Antonio Silva

Risking $100 to win $230

Parlays:

Barboza/Khabilov/Alcantara/Andrade

$200 wins $453

Jorge/Gibson/Waldburger/Macario

$25 wins $106

Mir/Barboza/Strickland/Waldburger

$25 wins $430

Jorge/Gibson/Waldburger/Trator

$25 wins $131

Gibson/Waldburger/Trator/Macario

$25 wins $125

Waldburger/Trator/Macario/Andrade

$25 wins $128

Jorge/Trator/Macario/Andrade

$75 wins $217

GL on Sunday night ladies (if any are reading these threads) and gentlemen. Comments and insight are always appreciated. I'll try and check back in before the fights start and answer any questions anyone might have.

And yes, I know Johnson is a wrestler, but I think Barboza's TD defense should keep the fight standing, which is why I looked at it from a striking perspective.