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UFC fight night 69

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Posted: #1
Hmmm, this looks like a nice weekend and take the boat to Put In Bay!!!! Don't think I'll be playing much and for sure won't have heavy action either.
 
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Posted: #2
I'm seeing lots of submissions. Still doing the breakdown, but there's no UFC I won't watch. And if I'm watching, im betting :)
 
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Posted: #3
Quote Originally Posted by whitebelt:

I'm seeing lots of submissions. Still doing the breakdown, but there's no UFC I won't watch. And if I'm watching, im betting :)

Word of warning, anytime these events start at funky times in the USA I struggle at, lol. Plus most fighters not from here are shytty wrestlers so I'm behind the 8 ball at that angle.
 
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Posted: #4
So Whitebelt this a good card for you to pad them stats???? On a scale of 1 to 10 for your betting angles where you put this one???
 
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Posted: #5
I love the foreign cards in general cause Vegas tends to be clueless. This ones really tough though with so many unknowns. I'm seeing a few guys I like. Still running numbers and watch previous fights.
 
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Posted: #6
I put it low for angles so far, not seeing any obvious bad lines. I'd give it a 5 overall but there are a few dogs I'm liking.
 
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Posted: #7
Quote Originally Posted by whitebelt:

I put it low for angles so far, not seeing any obvious bad lines. I'd give it a 5 overall but there are a few dogs I'm liking.


Good stuff Whitebelt, it's a thin card.
 
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Posted: #8
Couple early leans, nothing set in stone. Joanna(inside the distance). Hein, Amirkhani(inside), Taisumov(inside), Omer/Allen(inside), Backstrom(inside), and Hallman in a close fight.
 
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Posted: #9
I think siver sobotta and hein are near locks. Champ not worth the line still may add her in a 3 leg rr parlay with 4 options.  Almost scored big last minor event (which I kinda prefer) but fuckin meathead... Why'd he shoot?  
 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by wiiooiiw:

I think siver sobotta and hein are near locks. Champ not worth the line still may add her in a 3 leg rr parlay with 4 options.  Almost scored big last minor event (which I kinda prefer) but fuckin meathead... Why'd he shoot?  

None of those 3 are locks. I'm not strong against any of those 3, but they are absolutely not locks. 

Siver's only impressive win (to me) was against Charles Rosa, who himself is a younger fighter who hasn't fully matured. Every other notable name he's squared off against beat him: Conor McGregor, Cub Swanson, Donald Cerrone, Ross Pearson. None of his other wins were impressive. 

Not saying Tatsuya Kawajiri is on the same level as those 4 guys, but he's no slouch. He's got a superior pro record (33-8 vs 22-10) and he's got much better striking defense. He also averages nearly 4 takedowns per fight. Siver doesn't have the takedown defense to keep the fight standing & he doesn't have the grappling chops of submission machine Kawajiri.

Not sure why Sobotta is a lock. He's got 1 decision win in his UFC debut against Pawal Pawlak. Sobatta has very good BJJ. He's a black belt and has won numerous BJJ tournaments. However Steven Kennedy is also a BJJ black belt with BJJ titles of his own. He's also a black belt in Judo, and a black belt in Karate. Kennedy has a pro record of 22-6 to Sobotta's 14-4. Is it because he's making his UFC debut to the 1-fight-veteran? Hardly a "lock" in my book.

Hein is the closest to a lock that you listed, but I still wouldn't call him that. Sajewski is making his UFC debut while Hein has a 1-1 UFC record. But Hein is 11-2 pro (10-1 when he entered the UFC) while Sajewski is 13-0. Hein beat Drew Dober and lost to James Vick. Vick looked good in his last fight, but Dober looked aweful in his quick loss. I'm not giving Hein that much credit. 

Just playing Devil's Advocate over here....best of luck.
 
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by wiiooiiw:

I think siver sobotta and hein are near locks. Champ not worth the line still may add her in a 3 leg rr parlay with 4 options.  Almost scored big last minor event (which I kinda prefer) but fuckin meathead... Why'd he shoot?


Only Rousey is a lock!!! Do I need to answer why Meathead shot???
 
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by whitebelt:

Quote Originally Posted by wiiooiiw:

I think siver sobotta and hein are near locks. Champ not worth the line still may add her in a 3 leg rr parlay with 4 options.  Almost scored big last minor event (which I kinda prefer) but fuckin meathead... Why'd he shoot?  
None of those 3 are locks. I'm not strong against any of those 3, but they are absolutely not locks. Siver's only impressive win (to me) was against Charles Rosa, who himself is a younger fighter who hasn't fully matured. Every other notable name he's squared off against beat him: Conor McGregor, Cub Swanson, Donald Cerrone, Ross Pearson. None of his other wins were impressive. Not saying Tatsuya Kawajiri is on the same level as those 4 guys, but he's no slouch. He's got a superior pro record (33-8 vs 22-10) and he's got much better striking defense. He also averages nearly 4 takedowns per fight. Siver doesn't have the takedown defense to keep the fight standing & he doesn't have the grappling chops of submission machine Kawajiri.Not sure why Sobotta is a lock. He's got 1 decision win in his UFC debut against Pawal Pawlak. Sobatta has very good BJJ. He's a black belt and has won numerous BJJ tournaments. However Steven Kennedy is also a BJJ black belt with BJJ titles of his own. He's also a black belt in Judo, and a black belt in Karate. Kennedy has a pro record of 22-6 to Sobotta's 14-4. Is it because he's making his UFC debut to the 1-fight-veteran? Hardly a "lock" in my book.Hein is the closest to a lock that you listed, but I still wouldn't call him that. Sajewski is making his UFC debut while Hein has a 1-1 UFC record. But Hein is 11-2 pro (10-1 when he entered the UFC) while Sajewski is 13-0. Hein beat Drew Dober and lost to James Vick. Vick looked good in his last fight, but Dober looked aweful in his quick loss. I'm not giving Hein that much credit. Just playing Devil's Advocate over here....best of luck.



Yikes that "LOCK" word makes me wanna run!!!!
 
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Posted: #13
Yes, lock is a dirty word around here isn't it.  I guess I shudda said relative to the lines on these I see lots of value.  Any pick can be argued against especially when I give zero reasons to backup.  
On Siver/Kawajiri I see Siver as better of two aging fighters, he's fighting to a home crowd, and I swear McGregor's fists are lucky...people come back better after getting wupped by him.
Speaking of which, can't wait until aldo smashes him.  I love that line.
 
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Posted: #14
GL ill watch the fights but ill prob lay off this one. 
 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by MoneyShot:

GL ill watch the fights but ill prob lay off this one.

I'll be playing chicken stratch money Money!!!!
 
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Posted: #16
Quote Originally Posted by wiiooiiw:

Yes, lock is a dirty word around here isn't it.  I guess I shudda said relative to the lines on these I see lots of value.  Any pick can be argued against especially when I give zero reasons to backup.  On Siver/Kawajiri I see Siver as better of two aging fighters, he's fighting to a home crowd, and I swear McGregor's fists are lucky...people come back better after getting wupped by him.Speaking of which, can't wait until aldo smashes him.  I love that line.



If Siver let's this fight hit the canvas, he's in trouble. I'm not playing it, but good luck.
 
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Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by Ferrari29:

Couple early leans, nothing set in stone. Joanna(inside the distance). Hein, Amirkhani(inside), Taisumov(inside), Omer/Allen(inside), Backstrom(inside), and Hallman in a close fight.

hey buddy are you picking the under in each of these or are you picking the person noted to win inside the distance. my book only has ML plays up now so if you are saying Backstrom for example inside the distance I could play him on the ML since picking him to win inside the distnace isnt an option. but then you have omer/allen inside so im guessing that is an under bet whereas the other are the person listed to win as well as win inside the distance. thanks for claification. im new at this 
 
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Posted: #18
Hey Zee I can answer this better later after I get off work, my phone reception in here is awful.
 
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Posted: #19
OK Zee we will use Joanna as the example. She is minus 650 straight but inside the distance only minus 180. If you book doesn't give these lines I suggest going to 5dimes. Jim Gunn and I and maybe others bet there.
 
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Posted: #20
As far as the other plays Zee,I'll have my full card ready after weigh-ins.
 
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Posted: #21
Ok guys nothing but small plays and a few props!!!!!!
Jedrzejczyk inside the distance 1.80 gets me 1.
Kawajiri(+150) 1 gets me 1.50.
Hein(-165) 1.65 gets me 1.
Amirkhani(-225) 11.25 gets me 5.
Amirkhani inside the distance 1 gets me 1.15.
Taisumov(-170) 1.70 gets me 1.
Taisumov inside the distance 1 gets me 2.50.
Omer/Allen inside the distance 1 gets me 1.10.
Backstrom(-210) 10.50 gets me 5.
Under 1.5 Backstrom/Lahat fight 1 gets me 1.10.
Backstrom inside the distance 1.22 gets me 1.
Hallman(-120) 1.20 gets me 1.
Under 1.5 Sasaki/Lapilus fight 1 gets me 1.20.

 
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Posted: #22
So $41.17 in action, kinda surprised by this total. Gonna save Joanna minus the big chalk if I need her, past goofy events like this says I will, lol. Few quick notes before I hit the water: Penne is a small Strawweight IMO. Sometimes with new or not house hold names on the card it can result in boring behind fights OR great finishes,  hopefully whoever is watching it's the latter. Ok guys nothing to hang my hat on but I like to gamble, so we will see if we take a few pennies from the books this Saturday!!!!!!!!!
 
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Posted: #23
thx again for the info and plays bud
 
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Posted: #24
Quote Originally Posted by QWDmeezee:

thx again for the info and plays bud



No problem Zee, that's why a few of us love betting this sport.
 
 
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